The Rally

Discussion in 'Trading' started by eagle488, Oct 16, 2006.

  1. In reading some of the posts on here and other message boards, some of you have gotten a little too used to shorting stocks and are in complete denial.

    First, I must call your attention to The Stock Traders Almanac. The market usually works in cycles. Bull Market from Nov-April, bear from May-Oct.

    Second, the economy is not weak. This is not a weak economy. Over the summer everyone was stating "better then expected".

    So just because you have been shorting all summer long and got used to a routine does not mean that the trend will continue forever. You have to now change how you look at things as we are in a different era then before. Dont be pessimistic about this market or else its going to run you over full force.

    I say we go higher and we will go higher until April until we get another mini-panic and all you guys will come out once more yelling the sky is falling...
  2. Man I can hardly wait until tomorrow to get long. Thank god for leverage.
  3. Goldilocks!
  4. Its easy to be negative on the world. Its easy to think that every company will fail and will come out with bad earnings. The simple truth is that every year there are more people on this Earth. They all need things, they all want things, they all use things.

    As more people are born, they become consumers. The population of this Earth has not decreased in the last 10 years. In fact, its dramatically increased.

    So with every person who is born there comes another consumer. Earnings grow and the market goes higher...
  5. By your logic, people were dying by the millions in 1929 and in the 1970s.
    Anyways, I'm not opposed to your post, though the thread's title sounds like some novel :D.
  6. Its interesting that you say that. If your relatives had simply remained calm during either 1929 or the 70s and held the more well known stocks like IBM and Coke then you wouldnt be sitting here today trying to make a few bits off of trading.

    Quite honestly, I wouldnt be here either making the few bits if my ancestors had simply bought and held during the bad times. Unfortunately, human nature always prevails into fear and panic.

    Im strongly considering giving up trading and just throwing all my money into the Warren Buffet type stocks. It seems like a better life.
  7. I believe the behavior of prices is unfigureoutable. I don't even try to make sense of price changes.
  8. Repeat the following after me:

    "What the wise man does at beginning, the fool does in the end"

    You just have to get in at the beginning. Right now, the current trend is towards broadband and telecomunications. There is a glut in the broadband area.

    Remember during Katrina last year? That was the time to be the wise man about oil companies and buy buy buy. Now if you bought in in the spring, then you were playing the fool.

    So just look at how you can be the wise man right now and then when everyone else is getting in, you make your exit.

    If we sit down and think, we can definately come up with a plan. Oh, it does take work though. There are no easy ways.
  9. eagle,
    why not buy and hold some stocks in a separate account.
    and trade your trading account.
    no need to think this black/ white imo

  10. Denial?

    CAN YOU HEAR ME CHUCKLING OVER CYBERSPACE?????????????????????????????

    You really have an entrenched identity crisis, don't cha? "Us and them". You might consider a Harley-Davidson T-shirt to re-define it..

    Just who do you think is selling stock into strength? Price discovery cannot occur without transactions. Transactions entail a buyer ...........and yes, a seller. Sellers are either a. profit takers (or stemming losses) b. out of inventory c. short sales. You'll never know witch, oops I mean which. Just.......there is ALWAYS someone on the other side of the trade.

    Indices and their underlying components are two DIFFERENT instruments. Stocks often bottom in unisom, but top one by one. Like popcorn.

    Maybe someone said the sky was falling in. Wasn't me. I did say this is a sucker rally, presently with added media fanfare.

    Personally, I give no thought to the economy. I give a lot of thought to the merchandising of paper and its detection.

    Cycles? Motor, bi, or tri? Yale Hirsch means about as much as Ben Franklin. Yep, here in Nebra-ski we plant corn by the farmer's almanac (and the light of the moon).

    Different era, and you're preaching "denial"? . LOVE IT.
    #10     Oct 17, 2006