The deal Ireland got is tougher than the deal Greece got. Portugal, and the others, should try to fit through the closing doorway, and default before the deals get too tough!
Past EU actions show they think they can turn the tide even when they cannot. Based on past actions, they will stand against the dike, plugging holes as fast as possible as it crumbles, until even the most optimistic will give up in face of mounting pressure from the masses. If a domino cascade of defaults occur, the first x will reap the benefit of being partially supported in a vain effort to turn this around. OTOH nothing stops Moral Hazard like watching without action as somebody goes under. Who knows, maybe it really is different this time. You were one of the No Greek Default crowd, weren't you? Are you still?
I don't remember exactly what my view was... I remember that I wanted to be optimistic on the future on the EMU (which I guess implies I was one of the "no Greek default" crowd, as you put it). However, with time I got more and more disillusioned with it. It appears that EUR and the EMU are concepts that are well ahead of their times. The compromise that the Americans worked out a long time ago that made the ccy union work doesn't seem acceptable to the powers that be in Europe.
While there are benefits to be gained from a generally optimistic viewpoint (and I reap those benes), when it comes to dollars you'd best know your risks. You can stand in the middle of the road hoping the tanks will turn and perhaps that was a good life for you, but in the square you're being turned into fish food.
I find it amazing that people percieve risk in one direction only. Do you not feel that with Greek bonds trading at recovery levels and other PIGIS debt trading close to that, the tail risk is that EU+ECB will mount a sucessfull rescue? I talk to a lot of people and i've yet to hear of anyone who believes that Greece or the rrest of the problem countries will survive this - everyone is short or long protection.