Trying to get back to the topic of this thread... and leaving behind the flame war... In the event that Iran did set up an oil exchange in Euros, will it have a negative impact on the agregated demand of the dollar. I think it would. Would it be enough to bring down the whole US economy? I doubt it. Any opinions on this toughts?
2cents, I don't feel challenged by you. I am simply responding to your childish insults. It seems you are unable to engage in a discussion with me, without constantly proclaiming your perceived superiority. You presume that because I don't think like you, I must not expend the time or effort to think or to do research at all. You are not only incorrect, you are silly to make these assumptions. I also think it would be silly to spend time arguing about them. I will respond to your request to see my "research", so I will say I have done far too much research, and far too much thinking, over far too many years, to be able to summarize it all in the form of a few internet links posted in this thread. If my knowledge had been of a more superficial nature, then perhaps I would have been able to accomodate your request. I have no idea what you were talking about when you mentioned the question of "good faith". You ask: "what makes you think we are any close to any such limits? and if we are not, whats the point of the discussion i wonder??" This is a very good example of your lack of interest in what the other person says when you are in a discussion. I have said it over and over again, and I will say it yet again, that I do not have a firm belief that we are close to the limits which will trigger hyperinflationary collapse of the dollar or a dollar panic. I have said merely that I entertain doubts and uncertainties on the question. I have repeatedly tried to explain to you my doubts and uncertainties, but you have repeatedly misunderstood them and misinterpreted them as a firm belief opposite to the firm beliefs which you hold. You are mistaken to assume that anyone who disagrees with your firm beliefs does so because they hold equally firm, but opposite beliefs. My debate with you has been a conflict between your absolute, firm beliefs that no danger exists, versus my doubts and uncertainties. Perhaps at some point in your life, you will learn that the guy who is most certain of his viewpoint is often not the guy who has the most correct viewpoint. The point of the discussion between us, in answer to your question, has been the conflict between your certainty that hyperinflationary dollar collapse cannot happen, and my uncertainty as to whether or not it might be a risk. Perhaps, if you want me to distill all my personal knowledge into just a handful of internet links, this might be of some help to you, from http://www.pbs.org/empires/thegreeks/characters/socrates_p4.html:
Russia also has an interest in establishing an oil exchange in 2006... http://news.goldseek.com/GoldForecaster/1147791900.php You know...the world is becoming more diverse...with respect to competing higher level trading economies...as they emerge...it is only natural that their native currencies emerge. Russia is the #1 gas producer and also is a very significant oil producer... It would only be prudent for any country to become more diverse in its currency holdings... Capitalization of assets would certainly be a further outlet for currency volumes as asset valuations would increase ... I look to a more diverse and thus sound overall world economy...whereas the biggest players intelligently spread their risk with respect to currencies....
Russia has just paid off all its debt. (Coincidentally?) tomorrow is the first day that all foreign exchange restrictions will be lifted and the Rouble will be 100% convertible for the first time. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/97c20938-07d5-11db-9067-0000779e2340.html Perhaps all the noise about the Iranian oil bourse is just a smokescreen...
the only certainty i have expressed from the beginning of this thread - check again if you must - is that the OP's article is a BASELESS and completely idiotic litany of old griefs, false predicates, reverse realities cum complete bollox... and as such, no cause for worry, even less, panic... on the other hand, THAT is the sort of CERTAINTIES you live by: ignoring Germany and numerous other european economies, Japan etc.... bottom line is, your response is the most obvious cop out one could think of... you have NOTHING to show for all your words jimmy, nothing other than TALK or OPINION, the usual HAUGHTY AUSTRIANIST-TYPE INTELLECTUAL FRAUD, trying to wiggle out of anything that doesn't conform to their opinions... WHERE ARE YOUR INPUTS JIMMY??
why not start the thread with a more worthy article / personal contribution then? This is Economics, not Chit Chat...
opinion: to all the salivating $-permabear morons: . there IS no $-hegemony orchestrated nor caused by the US except in the mind of the usual conspiracy 'theorists' who are experts at offering 'opinions'... what there is rather, is a $-addiction from the Rest of the World, and there are good reasons for this addiction, which i'll leave you guys to think about... perhaps the 2 WW they have inflicted upon themselves haven't helped much, but thats just an opinion... . nobody likes to feel like one is addicted, not good for pride, but also not good in general. problem is, yes the euro has some appeal, but mostly to the europeans... if you ask the russians, they wouldn't mind if the world were ready to accept their rubles, etc etc... therefore yes, the euro must probably rise, but it's not like the Rest of the World is happily going to throw all their eggs behind the euro because they hate the reality of their $-addiction so much that they want to replace it with a dual addiction to 2 foreign currencies. plus Europe is not a very robust edifice yet... apologies for the understatement.... . oil bourse in euros: what does it take, do u think, to tell Peter & Paul: mates, brent is EUR60 today, wire to my bnpparibas euro-denominated acct thanks! well, exactly, nothing more than that. sooo, why hasn't it been done yet?? because its purely symbolic, meant to be some sort of slur to the hegemo-demonic US. problem is, 1) the US would actually BENEFIT from a slighter weaker $ for a while to allow for their deficits to unwind faster / more easily... mmmhhh, frustrating... but the worse is, 2) Net Foreign Securities Purchases monthly figures keep showing that the Rest of the World is actually pretty happy to continue scooping up $-denominated assets... aaaarggghhh bloody yankees... how haven't we thought of it before, our frigging economies are so hopelessly unattractive... any opinions? or better, serious research??
I am not ignoring Germany and Japan. German history includes a hyperinflationary destruction of its currency in its Weimar Republic, which helped set the stage for Hitler to win the election by which he came to power. Germany is one of the examples which prove that hyperinflationary currency collapses do sometimes happen. Your logic seems to be that since some other country, like Japan or present-day Germany, has not suffered hyperinflationary collapse of its currency, then this proves the U.S. will also not suffer such fate. Your reasoning has three major flaws. First, Japan had a legitimate reason to borrow, as a policy choice, so that it could fight deflation, while the U.S., on the other hand, is aggressively expanding its public debt as a percentage of G.D.P., simply because it has a short-sighted and undisciplined addiction to debt. Second is that we don't yet know if Japan or Germany will suffer a hyperinflationary collapse of their currencies in the future, so they cannot yet be used as the sorts of examples you claim. The third and greatest flaw is that you can't disprove the possibility of a hyperinflationary currency collapse in a particular country, by pointing to examples of other countries which did not suffer such a collapse. Your argument is like claiming that since one particular smoker lived to the age of 100 and then died without getting lung cancer, this proves that smoking does not cause cancer. I think that if you use your mind just a little, you will be forced to agree that it is possible for one country to suffer hyperinflationary currency collapse, even if another, similar country, does not. You seem to have extremely poor comprehension, so I will repeat, once again, that I am not saying we will suffer hyperinflationary currency collapse. I am merely saying that it is a risk which nobody in this thread has disproven by any rational argument. Your argument is essentially an attempt to prove points by calling other people names. Are you familiar with the Latin term ad hominem? Do you know what that term means? Here is a link for you, which I hope might help improve the quality of your participation on ET: http://www.britannica.com/ebc/article-9364182?query=ad hominem&ct=. Perhaps, if you can leave behind all the ad hominem name-calling and labelling, and leave behind all the assertions of your perception that you are a superior intellect, you can get more focused on the topic of the thread, and make a greater contribution to the discussion. Let me address yet another example of your apparent lack of interest in what other people say. You asked me for my research. I answered that question, but then, your response ignores my response, and simply repeats your question. I presume this is due to an inability to focus your attention on viewpoints differing from your own. I will therefore accomodate to your handicap by repeating my answer as follows.
The current world scenario, with one player dominating the whole world in economics, finances and politics is not going to last long. Why? Economics. If there´s ever a monopoly over one good {let it be power in this case} others will enter the market until the equilibrium is set again. In the long term no barrier to entry is strong enough... The US cant fight the whole world and even if they could... it wouldnt be good for bussiness.