Hello everybody. I just joined the site and I would like to read opinions/comments on this article http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/petrov/2006/0120.html Regards
Excellent article...thank you.... The big question here is that the big holders hurt themselves bigtime by selling the dollar... And I disagree with the view on oil ...because of Cheneys history in Indonesia...Mexico...and Iraq prior to becoming VP... One could argue that Cheney is still in effect an oil company employee that is using his government office as a helpful big oil company tool....The chronology of events is too coincidental...and this would explain the continual aloofness of Bush...
Read that article, great article. This is a perspective that has been around since the commencement of the Iraq qar, but it's only now that the Iranian controversy is highlighting the disconnects and serious flaws in US foreign policy that academics and "reputable" intellects are beginning to look at the American dollar hegemony and the nature of its existance. Long-term investors notice trends like these and this is how they make hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars over time. Example: population growth and erosion of the natural environment (pollution effects, etc) will deplete global crops at a faster rate than they can be replaced via technology. Thus, agriculutral commodity prices will go up over the long term. This is a 20-50 year view, but is a certainty barring technological breakthroughs, large-scale event horizons, or large trend reversals. The dollar scenario is similar (in that current conditions and circumstances being what they are have it on a depreciative path that cannot be permanently reversed) and its history is summarized beautifully in that article. I'm not so sure that there are valid counter-arguments to his view since he is simply reciting history. Of course, I am biased since I hold a similar view.
There are alot of counterarguments - but they don't address the authors arguments directly. Some of my coworkers look at his political views. He's been cited by other "radical" publications and thus loses credibility with the sort of people who believe what they hear on CNN and don't realize the Bush administration is pulling a fast one on the American public. My views mirror those of the author, but opponents would label it as propaganda, inaccurate, etc. For example, my buddy says that foreign govs hold dollar reserves because a) US is one of their largest trading partners b) dollar is most widely-used currency, etc I think these are all real reasons why countries CAN hold large amounts of dollars, but not they they ORIGINALLY began hoarding dollar reserves. Of course, I am not a trained economist...
I have a contradiction to the article which says US taxed the world for the first time by having them pile up on dollars.........might be fine argument in case Japan, UK and Dutch but not in the case of third world nations of Asia, Africa and S. America WHICH TAXED THEIR OWN SELVES BY ADOPTING THE COMMUNIST AND SOCIALIST ECONOMIC SYSTEMS AND THUS KEPT ON INEFFICIENTLY USING THEIR RESOURCES, WASTING AND SQUANDERING AND LIVING LIVES IN SEMI OR TOTAL HELL. In Russia's case BBC reported that Russians have 75B Pounds in banks in UK alone, no one know how much they have in Swiss and other tax haven banks........all this while Russia as a nation is barely hanging on to feeding itself somehow, begging, scavanging and prostituting itself. SO THE BOTTOMLINE IS DO NOT BLAME THE US FOR THE PROBLEMS OF THE REST OF THE WORLD. IT IS US THAT IS STANDING IN BETWEEN THE CIVILIZED WORLD AND THE FANATIC FORM OF ISALMIC STORM FROM SWEEPING NATIONS AND THROWING THEM BACK BY 500 YEARS.
If this is the best anybody can do, in the way of mustering some counterargument to the article, then I think we have great cause for worry.