The Problem of risk/win ratio & time risk !!!

murray t turtle · Aug 26, 2011

Quote from HATEtheRisk:

Good morning,

thanks for your replies.
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J.Joseph

so you go in again in the main trend, after you ve been stoped out.
Thats exactly the point, what i dont like, because then i take the same risk another time for the same possible profit. Thats not the best risk/profit managment, dont you think ?

Or, if he just have 1 Setup a week to trade.

So if i have a lot of Setups to trade, to choose from in the same time, i can switch a not perfect move/trade, to a better one and i have also have made money with the not perfect move/trade.
Instead of go in again on the same setup, after beeing stoped out. So my risk/win probabilities are much better. Of course this is a lot more work to do, to always have so much of trade setups on your watch list, and choose the best, decided of the starting setups probabilites until how the setup moves.
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murray t turtle

i think every successful trader have to choose his own defense strategy. I think there is no clear perfect strategy that says here is the point where its best to do this ...

Only the best average strategy counts. that means, how much can i possible win and how much can i possible loose after a certain time.

It was very difficult for me to find the right way.
But i finally decided that it is more important for me to minimize the losses than maximize the profits.

Because i always say, if there are no losses the profits will come from alone. I always try to achieve a business situation with no risk and good profits. Yes there is risk, but i can pull it down to a very small time factor in relationship to the price momentum move.
That means, so long the price momentum move is on my side, i accept to risk money, when it starts to end i should take out the risk.

I decided for a way, to take out my risk, as soon as possible, at least when the perfect move ends. And i still have enough success probabilites, that the price moves to my minimum target and over that.

The conclusion is that i pay possible profit for having a lower risk.
Thats the time risk factor.

My results are very good, i like it. For a perfectionist. : -)

Thanks and happy trading.

Peace
More...

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Agree ,J.Joseph ;
& Citigroup looks like a better downtrend;
than uptrends SLV ,silver & gold ,GLD is now. That's simply probabilities;
not a prediction. Gold, GLD may keep uptrending.

HATEtheRisk · Aug 27, 2011

Quote from murray t turtle:

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Agree ,J.Joseph ;
& Citigroup looks like a better downtrend;
than uptrends SLV ,silver & gold ,GLD is now. That's simply probabilities;
not a prediction. Gold, GLD may keep uptrending.
More...

thats what i am talking about all the time.
Predicting high probabilities scenarios and trade that shit.
Nobody knows 100% what will happen, everything is possible.
If ALIENS attack earth, nothing will work anymore.
There is always a little percentage that it all goes against you.

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The Problem of risk/win ratio & time risk !!!

murray t turtle

HATEtheRisk