Maybe a play off the 15min could set up late in the day but if not, then A+ for discipline on the week and no trades. I am digging through some old files to see if I need to add a 3rd set up after adding the range one. I am trying to get it to where I can get involved with at least 1 trade per day with out violating my plan and my own tendencies that would pull me out of my personal 'control' zone.
Spent time this weekend working on manually back testing and tracking . This is different than any back testing I have ever done. It really tightens up any questions about the trading plan and dials in the exact details of things like “is this a valid trade?”, “is close enough acceptable?” It strips the vagueness out of my trading vocabulary because if I bend , I’m just skewing results that won’t forward test well. I am hoping that I am tracking stats that are worthwhile and will show soft spots and strengths. We shall see.
Nothing setting up. Checking back around 9AM to see if that changed. The 2hr is holding support which is the most clear TF at the moment to me.
Today I am putting up 15 trades of back testing results. I am not using back testing for forward testing commitment. What I am trying to do is isolate any possible variables that might turn set of trades with poor results into a set of trades with good results. Maybe one these needs ditched , tweaked or continued. I am not sure yet. What I do know is that this is the most intensive manual back testing I have done. Knowing my exact rules and making sure the chart lines up exactly as stated can be tricky in trying not to create a confirmation bias. Yes, there were moves that because of 1 single candle, I couldn't take it. Because of that candle I had to not put it in here. The move then went on for 10x any of these . The sample size is small right now, but I am posting to see if anyone has feedback on some of the criteria and if they think some of it is worth pursuing vs not. It also might be a poor idea on my part because any and all criteria could be valid depending on MY rules. I am not sure. I guess this is just a question for people that went this direction. Brainstorming a bit. My gut is that it's useless to have others look at it and I have to just look at my own data and whatever variables lead to profitable are the right ones regardless of how silly they might be. Trade the moon?
My two cents. Full disclosure I’m still working out the bugs in a simulated environment. You need a methodology but can’t get stuck in the making of a method. For back testing even if you use larger time frames, choose only your trading time frame. On your TTF, you either have a signal or you don’t. You can learn to use your LTF later creating rules and filters. But, your TTF sets the trade up. Signal, initial stop loss, target, management of trade. For you, in an effort to have unambiguous signals, you’re reverting to Technical analysis. You’re signal should be so fucking simple, it’s there or it isn’t. For example, in a downtrend, on the second pull back, price rejects the 9ema and I sell for another leg down. This is on TTF. later, your LTF can filter the trade meaning maybe your at yesterday’s low and price tends to pause there. You’re building a slot-machine, that you pull over and over, knowing that a SERIES of trades produce a positive expectancy. Make your signal dumber. Make yourself dumber. It all works and none of it works. As I’m getting dumber I’m getting better and been positive in SIM. I only use the 3m and 15m.
Thanks! My entry is very simple but the amount of times my environment sets up to take the trade is a bit less common at the moment. It also keeps me from losing money. Things like defining the trend, validating it etc are all of the questions I had to answer in great detail for myself.