The price action facebook journal

Well, it's a moving average, so it may well have been different in real time.

The high of the 9:42am ET bar today came a tick or two shy of the 1-min 20EMA, setting up a perfect 1st entry (no inside bars). Again, I'm looking at the chart now; in real time that EMA may have been higher.

 

AM

The concept of good/ bad trades needs to go away

We trade our plan – or we don’t

We exit once the trade fails – or we don’t

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Please explain why the short @ .59 was a bad trade

You can use the PA…, from the open.., till you exited it – and associated context – to support your conclusion (no after the fact BS)

No hidden agenda btw – this is an exercise in thinking through this stuff

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I see a potential "V" reversal... and a short taken before the "V" reversal was confirmed - but as momo was waning...meaning it was up in the air where price was headed

This area is a PB on a higher TF btw (that in hindsight evolved into a reversal)

imo - the short was valid... the exit late

Would like your assessment please



RN

 

Hi RN,

I'll try to ullustrate the PA assasment from the open to the close of the trade (no hindsight BS ), I'd be happy for your comments,

We've opened the day

08:37 (16:37 my clock): we've made a lower low suggesting a downtred is in place

08:34: (16:44): Perfrect short entry 1 tick below the last green bar. This move continued until 09:00 (17:00).

09:02: (17:02): break of SL.

09:07: (17:07): Break of trend line. At this point I'm bot sure if we're still in a downmove and decide to not enter a short as usual at .64. Decide to wait to some sort of more clear move.

09:11 (17:11): Seeing a range between .70 and .60, decide to enter a short if we break of the range below .60. This is decided although we broke the TL, since we're still officialy with a lower high after a lower-low.

09:12 (17:12): Good reverasal bar (Doji star), also failed break-up of .70.

09:13-09:14 (17:13-17:14): possible short entry at .62, I decided to still enter only at .59 at the break of the range down and on hindsight though it was a bit late.
Target at this time is .47.

09:17-9:20 (17:17-17:20) Triple bottom at .51, But thought that we might still go lower after the pullback, stop was at .71 at this time.

09:23 (17:23) : Pullback again from .52, Decided to set stop at .62 and also set limit at .52 beacuse I though we still have a potential to go down (break of first DL) but the momentum didn't seem in my favor.

09:26 (17:26) : Exit at .52 and stop trading, so didn't catch the long entry at 09:36 (17:36)

I wrote this was a bad trade becase it seems that the break of the TL was suggesting the start of an up-move but on second tought it seems that this trade was a least partially valid.

Would be happy to read any comments (not just from RN)

 

I see you remain unconvinced the short was valid

Nothing wrong with it – simply…, it did not pan out

Take a small loss/ BE / small profit – and on to the next one

Such is trading

With regard to your analysis

Remove the we; price does what it does – you’re not part of it

Remove the perfect; there is no such thing – except in hindsight

We trade what we’re given – as it’s given

Forrest vs trees (this one will become clear as you read on)

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Simply, trading is;

A constant reallocation of one’s attention (focus) – from the overall – through – to – gnat’s ass detail – with an ever diligent eye fixated on the present – for the sole purposes of finding a trade

Which we then enter and either win/ lose small / BE

wash/ rinse/ repeat

I interpret this as a request for someone to step in and explain why the short was bad


Funny thing is…, I could easily do this – but it’s not what I attempting to get you to see/ learn

A failed trade – is never a bad trade – when valid conditions for placing that trade – exist

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For the first 30 min – price made a down move – with nominal PB’s and increasing momentum

This down move then abruptly evolved into an up move with momentum (The V)

Which then abruptly died out and evolved into a range / PB

Price hung in the range for several minutes – tried to break up.., but failed

Enter short

Price then tried to break down…, but was quickly squashed


Up till that last sentence – entering the short @ .59 was perfectly valid

The last sentence invalidates the short – potentially brings into play the V – possibly validates the V – but there is still the resistance @ .68/ .69 (top of the range) to contend with

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So, where exactly do we place our focus

First 30 min down move – that contain nominal PBs and increasing momentum

The potential V reversal

The range killing the potential V reversal momentum (if the V real – it reasonable to expect price to keep moving up and away with few / small PBs – but it didn't)

The failed break up attempt out of the range / PB

The failed break down attempt out of the range / PB

The potential validation of the V @ .51 – it held for 6 separate bars – yet was breached @17:27 bar – which then held

The resistance looming overhead (at the top of the range)

The volatile PA just past the range (bars 17:13 – 17:21) – and what does this volatile PA represent

How about a bigger TF - where is price / what is occurring

All of this / none of this / some of this / something else

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You show 3 valid long entries where I could easily defend none exist

Yet I could also defend they do exist

Hell, I could even easily defend standing pat on the sidelines and allowing the dust to settle

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My point;

Calling a valid trade – bad (iow either not recognizing why / or conversely ignoring why – it valid) – is nothing but chasing your ass around in a perpetual loop for no good reason

It is one very small symptom to an incredibly huge..., and potentially fatal…, condition

Stop

And start thinking through this on both a broader.., and smaller levels - with a painstakingly methodical process

Sure bar by bar analysis is important – but at some point those bars add up to represent something – best you can also recognize what that something is – as its occurring

Trees – Forest – possibly both - possibly neither



RN

 

your winning over and over again, whats your total profit on your account so far? just you dont keep a running total anywhere?? keep up your good work, ive never been able to make this style of intraday scalping profitable, too much noise for me

 

Posting now since won't be able to post later.

Couldn't trade the first hour due to work, great miss...

1 trade today +28$

 

I enjoy watching your journal..good work u have been doing...Keep it up

 

Thanks you!

Forgot to update my swing positions.
Closed MSFT on BE. I think I should have exited this trade earlier...
Will re-enter if price goes above 37.4.

Still holding GOOG, stop at 1109. (hope to not hit it be the end of the day )

Opened another swing on GLUU at 3.82. Stop at 3.57, target is 4.1

Edit: Cancaled my stop on GOOG, will set a new one below the low of the day after is finished

 

This is a great post, and I find the caution about day trading especially interesting given that FB could have yielded nine points per share of its 15 point range as a swing trade since this journal was begun a month ago.

 

The key words in your post are "could have". You're making a statement based on a known outcome. FB could have also chopped in a narrow range the entire time, allowing an intraday scalper to extract many times the profit of a swing trader, or it could have experienced an severe overnight price gap, turning a swing trader's unrealized gain into a loss.

Day trading is for those with a thoroughly tested plan and the ability (trader's mindset) to follow it. Once these criteria are met, the day trader can produce an admirable ROI with no overnight risk or hedging necessary.