AM Couple of thoughts Why more than 1 view is important (see attached - it's an overall view) AH, and after earnings – price zoomed way the hell off and up… but where it landed is no surprise =============== Now, could we have known this beforehand – no way And if we had been holding short at the close – we’re screwed nine ways to Sunday Tomorrow we have something to build upon ================ A few rules of mine; Day trading - flat at EOD – no exceptions Always know the bigger picture Always know when earnings/ announcements are due out – and typically be flat as those times approach RN
RN, Thanks for your care, I still didn't get back to trading due to some changes in my life that avoid me from trading for the coming weeks (but might actually enable me to trade nuch more in the coming months) I'll be posting if I trade, but it might not by on a daily basis as it was so far.
OK some updates, Last 2 days of january manage to loss what profit left from that month, so ended slightly negative (-16$) First 2 days this week, good days (+40$ each), short oens (only 1 trade) Would like to have inputs on this day, frstrated that I actually manage to lose money in such a trendy day. 4 Trade, 2 winners, 2 losers, -16$/5cps Trade 1 - Short for a break of the day's low, big slippage at the exit. Not sure about this one... Trade 2 - Good trade, according to plan, glad I saved half of the amount for a bit more profit Trade 3 - Not sure about this long, glad I was able to reverse it... Trade 4 - Good trade. I feel like I miss the bigger picture sometime and thus unable to make the right decisions...
Volatility and momentum are the very same – only difference is; one ends up having a direction and one does not – regardless both have the very same affect on our psyche =============================== Here’s something to chew on Based off 5 min chart from the open to first 60 min (bars 9:35 - 10:30) First 12 Bars had a total of $4.84 movement (summing the differences between the H / L move of each bar) compared to an aggregate move of $1.86 Over these 12 bars price’s average movement was .40 cents per bar ================================ What would be your first assessment of this morning Still wondering why you lost your way (and didn’t see the bigger picture developing) And, – your overall down move TL is off btw You still want me to break down your trades – just say the word Sir RN
If you can provide some insights on the trades in the general context of your post, I'd be very happy.
AM When you see this ===== it is a break and transition from one thought/ line of thinking – to another (the next) But all tying to a central theme (I hope ) ================== Volatility and momentum are not mutually exclusive – and today both were present ====================== The 1st / 2nd & 4th trades were solid entries The 3rd – not so much ====================== You’re trading what…, 100 shares a pop – did you wonder why the slippage on the 1st trade’s exit – what so special about those 100 over the other 52.5M traded ==================== As you trade – always be asking yourself – why did price go down / not up…. Or up / not down…. Why did price go this far.., but no farther… why did it pull back to this price... but go farther More on this in a bit ==================== Let’s review the 1st trade First note – your DTL (pink on my chart) is drawn very sloppily – keep your lines tight (tie the tops / bottoms together) so you can gauge what price is doing in relation to what it has done Drawn any other way – you are only inducing your subjectivity – stop So price pushed down (to the first green arrow) started pulling back – forming a small range – and pulled back to the initial TL (the pink one) Appeared like it was going to respect this TL – but formed an even smaller range – then broke down to a test of the previous low (where you shorted) where it was rejected Where it breached the 1st (pink) TL And where you should have exited - and where you should have been alerted 2 bars prior to entering that price was breaching it (be extra cautious) Let me stress this again – it is important to be anal about drawing your TL ON price’s extremes (now there will be times an outlier will form – but those are just that outliers – let’s stick to the tried and true basics for now Continuing; Price then forms a very small bar… then the next bar bursts trough the 2nd (grey) TL – and breaks out the top of the range Retraces for 1 bar – then resumes up for 1 bar Fails and puts in a LL – and creates a FBO =================== Let’s talk about the mechanics of a FBO There are 2 auctions occurring simultaneously in any given stock The straight up auction between the herd (reflected on a chart) – and the reverse auction (what had to happen to create the chart) – where the Herd Masters (HM aka big money) direct the herd Price moves in direct relation to what the HM need to accomplish They need to exit a long – they drive price up and off load They need to enter a short – they drive price up and enter They need to enter a long – they drive price down and enter They need to exit a short – they drive price down and off load And whichever direction they drive it – is the they way the herd is forced to go… and if the herd already in a position – provides liquidity via their stops HM is the only one capable of starting / stopping / moving price They are also capable of making price jittery in order to throw off the herd (weak hands) This game is set up to extract the most money from the most participants Knowing this may help you decipher what is actually happening, not be taken surprise by it... possibly even exploit it when you see it Volatile momentum is designed to shake rattle and roll the herd's nerves… and hence their actions into stupid-ness ========================== I’ll review trade 3 in the next post because I think it contains some food for thought aside - I hate this need to double post BS RN
Questions on this one, please ask btw, if you look at the 5 min morning down move (underneath the yellow TL) The move down - momentum component The overlapping bars - to the degree they do - volatility component Today contained both - dealing with one is a bitch... dealing with both - requires an extra does of objectivity and self monitoring/ control Another btw - if the volatility aspect had been missing - that would have been fear (I seen for the first time..., in a few years..., last week - we'll see in time if it takes hold/ grows) yippee ki-ya - and - ride em cowboy RN
:eek: Quite a revelation. And here I was starting to wonder if my stops were someone elses target. How many Small Traders can handle the truth?
Further evidence why holding overnight..., for a day trader..., is just plain bad (and too damn risky) Facebook's shares fell $1.82, or 2.7 percent, to $66.24 in after-hours trading Wednesday after the deal was announced. Earlier in the day, the stock hit a 52-week high of $69.08. http://news.yahoo.com/facebook-buyi...2--finance.html;_ylt=AwrBEiH5sQVTa3EAJS3QtDMD Bet there are some pissed off / worried longs tonight Tomorrow should be an interesting day eta; My last sentence is not to be interpreted as I'm suggesting price is going to automatically drop tomorrow (thinking the longs will be exiting....Buyers could very well step in and drive it back up) I don't know what will happen tomorrow...., I'm just pretty sure something will RN