The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo

Discussion in 'Politics' started by jem, Jul 27, 2016.

  1. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark

    #851     Nov 8, 2016
  2. jem

    jem

    they were.

    nate looks at the last 2 to three weeks of polls. That stops your team of herders like abc from taking the title by waiting until the last few polls to put out legit polls.
     
    #852     Nov 8, 2016
  3. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark


    They were 3 points off . Other pollsters were closer and had obama ahead months before they even started polling.this year they are taking both sides by having Hillary ahead in one poll and trump in the other.
     
    #853     Nov 8, 2016
  4. jem

    jem

    you don't seem to place any importance on logical methodology.
    nor do you seem to understand that crooked polls are like broken clocks. They can get a binary result correct even if they have terrible methodology.

    polls are not supposed to be forecasting what will happen on nov 8th... they say if you vote today who would you vote for.

    As the election approaches vote tallys change. Undecideds and third parties shift. Trump got a higher percentage of republicans.

    the key to a good poll is good methodology and an honest template.

    Now... there is something else to consider. After the herding some of your crooked polls adopted a reasonable template. closer to d plus 4.

    But... they could all be wrong if the turnout does not match 2012.

    Because trump received more primary votes than hillary... there is a chance today's turnout is more like 2014 than 2012.

    In which case almost all the polls will have underestimated the Trump vote.

    But that would not mean the polls with good templates were bad.

     
    #854     Nov 8, 2016
  5. jem

    jem

    #855     Nov 8, 2016
  6. jem

    jem

    #856     Nov 8, 2016
    Tom B likes this.
  7. jem

    jem

    this is the electoral college map.
    I was quite surprised to see hillary went from a win to undecided in the last week or so.


    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html


    all of sudden the polls were inconclusive
    can you say unskewing like mad in front of the election.

    these were toss ups on Election Day morning...


    Florida (29)
    Ohio (18)
    Michigan (16)
    Pennsylvania (20)
    New Hampshire (4)
    Maine CD2 (1)
    Maine (2)
    North Carolina (15)
    Virginia (13)
    Georgia (16)
    Colorado (9)
    Nevada (6)
    New Mexico (5)
    Arizona (11)
    Iowa (6)
     
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2016
    #857     Nov 8, 2016
  8. aex

    aex

    Or maybe he is just stating the obvious if indeed undecided are much higher than normal
     
    #858     Nov 8, 2016
  9. jem

    jem

    you want to see unskewing... look at the history of change October 30
    17 of 19 moves in trumps direction.

    crooked polls unskewing
    or if you wish to be nice... herding.


    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html


    RCP NATIONAL AVG.
    11/6 Virginia Leans Clinton »»» Toss Up
    11/4 Georgia Leans Trump »»» Toss Up
    11/4 Indiana Leans Trump »»» Likely Trump
    11/4 Maine Leans Clinton »»» Toss Up
    11/4 Maine CD1 Likely Clinton »»» Leans Clinton +1.6


    11/4 Michigan Leans Clinton »»» Toss Up
    11/4 New Mexico Leans Clinton »»» Toss Up
    11/4 Virginia Toss Up »»» Leans Clinton
    11/3 Louisiana Likely Trump »»» Safe Trump
    11/3 Mississippi Likely Trump »»» Safe Trump
    11/3 Texas Leans Trump »»» Likely Trump
    11/3 Utah Leans Trump »»» Likely Trump
    11/2 Georgia Toss Up »»» Leans Trump
    11/2 Missouri Leans Trump »»» Likely Trump
    11/2 Pennsylvania Leans Clinton »»» Toss Up
    11/2 Virginia Leans Clinton »»» Toss Up
    11/1 New Hampshire Leans Clinton »»» Toss Up
    10/30 Colorado Leans Clinton »»» Toss Up
    10/30 Texas Toss Up »»» Leans Trump
     
    #859     Nov 8, 2016
  10. jem

    jem

    absolutely a possibility. I did pose my option as a question.



     
    #860     Nov 8, 2016