The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo

Discussion in 'Politics' started by jem, Jul 27, 2016.

  1. #71     Aug 1, 2016
  2. You're laughing because you believe your country is going in the wrong direction?
     
    #72     Aug 1, 2016
  3. fhl

    fhl

    You can't follow a thread? Is it too hard for a french fry canuck?
     
    #73     Aug 1, 2016
  4. Try following your own breadcrumbs:


    The only justification for laughing at what you posted is if you don't believe it and are laughing at those who do. If you actually believe the country is headed in the wrong direction and are laughing about it, then "patriot" is not the first word that comes to mind in describing you.
     
    #74     Aug 1, 2016
  5. fhl

    fhl


    Dumb. Wake up.
     
    #75     Aug 1, 2016
  6. #76     Aug 1, 2016
  7. fhl

    fhl

    #77     Aug 1, 2016
  8. jem

    jem

    I have only started checking the polls recently... but so far it seems this cycle fewer of the polls are revealing their D vs R vs I breakdown. They are therefore much harder to unskew.

    So in short they are less useful and we can't know if they are more trustworthy before or after the conventions.

     
    #78     Aug 1, 2016
  9. Ricter

    Ricter

    I appreciate what you're trying to do, but what polling are you relying on to give you a valid and reliable distribution of Rs and Ds in the first place?
     
    #79     Aug 1, 2016
  10. jem

    jem

    I would choose the 2012 election as the starting template. (you could make a an argument for some other templates but the previous presidential election is the least biased choice on the surface.)
    I think that saw 51 percent Obama vs 47 Romney.

    So now when making the 2016 template... I think acceptable templates should have no more than 4 more dems than republicans. But as we increase independents you should go to maybe 3 more dems than repubs. 38 D, 35 R, 27 I... give or take a few independents.

    I see some polls like the force independents into D or R... So then you can go back to 4 more Ds than Rs as you return closer to 51 vs 47.

    ===

    I note Hillary and Trump both have high similarly high unfavorables.

    and if there is an x factor its that trump turned out a lot of primary votes and he leads with independents right now. Therefore crooked polls will have a very small amount of Independents.











     
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2016
    #80     Aug 1, 2016