Most polls were incorrect at this point in 2012. Romney had the lead according to many polls. So much so that Romney took the weekend and Monday off because he thought he had won. The LA times poll (formerly Rand) had Obama correctly ahead and was within .5 % of the final tally.
And only 3 show Romany ahead,but you said "Most polls were incorrect at this point in 2012. Romney had the lead according to many polls." More polls had Obama ahead Of Romney and more polls had Obama ahead than tied.Your statement that most polls were incorrect is incorrect.While Romney had the lead in 3 polls it wasn't most polls and I wouldn't call 3 many out of 17.
These polls were the final polls and were certainly not all the polls. However, the LA Times Poll was tracking Obama in the lead at about the right margin around this time and prior. The point is that as you can see , the RCP average of polls was off more than 2percent, so, my contention is that polls are somewhat to be taken with a grain of salt except in the area of trend. --And the current trend is in the direction of Trump. We don't know if it will be enough to win and you don't know that Hillary will win. You just don't. In fact CNN has moved 4 states today in the direction of Trump either making them lean republican or moved from lean dem to tossup. Trend right now is Trump. --Izzy
You said polls at this point so I picked polls from 10-25 to 11-5.Out of all 2012 RCP polls Obama is ahead in most of them.RCP average was off as they underestimated Obama like they are underestimating Hillary now.
Trend is what is important in reading polls. Poll are trending toward Donald Trump. Whether or not it will be enough to win is not yet known. Whether Hillary or Donald has been underestimated is not able to be determined at this point in time.
LA Times Poll trended further in Trumps direction today and is now outside the area of uncertainty as their methodology describes it. I don't know if it's a good poll or not. I do know that it was right and much more so than RCP last time, and I do know that it is trending in the direction of Donald Trump. That's the important info.--Izzy