The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo

Discussion in 'Politics' started by jem, Jul 27, 2016.

  1. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark

    Hillary ahead in 5 of the last 7 polls.



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    #771     Nov 3, 2016
  2. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark

    Hillary ahead in the 2 latest Florida polls.Overall Hillary is ahead in 6 of the last 9 polls and Trump ahead in 3 of the last 9.Betting markets,Silvers original algo and The Princeton Election Consortium also have Hillary ahead in FL.



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    #772     Nov 3, 2016
  3. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark

    Hillary ahead in 6 of the last 8 polls,Trump ahead in none.

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    #773     Nov 4, 2016
  4. jem

    jem

    that average is 2.5.
    which is well within the average margin for error.

    the herding is done. those were really crappy polls you were touting for months.
    Some of these poll are now within the good poll margin.

    The fox poll after being ridiculous for months... now seems to be weighted pretty close to where the algo expects it should be...
    it is actually concerning to me. Hillary might win
     
    #774     Nov 4, 2016
  5. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark


    Obama's was only 0.9.I think Hillary outperforms the polls like Obama did
     
    #775     Nov 4, 2016
  6. Ricter

    Ricter

    The problem with this is the hope that all polls are erring in the same direction.
     
    #776     Nov 4, 2016
    Tony Stark likes this.
  7. fhl

    fhl

    Current phony baloney liberal poll count:

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    #777     Nov 4, 2016
  8. Buy1Sell2

    Buy1Sell2

    LA times poll which was correct in 2012 has Trump ahead by nearly 4.
     
    #778     Nov 4, 2016
  9. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark

    Republicans said that in 2008 and 2012 as well.
     
    #779     Nov 4, 2016
  10. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark


    Multiple polls that were correct in 2012 have Hillary ahead.So do Sam Wangs Princeton's Election Consortium which picked 49 out of 50 states in 2012 and Silvers original algo which picked every state correctly in 2012.Betting markets which were also correct in 2012 also has Hillary ahead.
     
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2016
    #780     Nov 4, 2016