If we are interested in predicting the election outcome, I am not anymore as I realize Hillery Clinton will be our next President as long as her supporters turn out in the swing States, and polls, it seems, are less good at predicting who will show up, though they have that data too, but with wider confidence limits. Really all we need to look at is the poll results for swing states. We already know that Mississippi will be landslide for Trump.
agreed the non biased polls in the swing states would be a good thing... but for instance that NBC poll people here are touting... look at the internals. 43 to 36 and far more strong democrats that Republicans. that is how you manipulate your results. Strong Democrat ...................................................................... 24 [308-311] Not very strong Democrat ......................................................... 12 Independent/something else/closer to Democratic Party .......... 7 Strictly independent .................................................................. 16 Independent/something else/closer to Republican Party .......... 10 Not very strong Republican ...................................................... 11 Strong Republican .................................................................... 15 Something else ......................................................................... 1 Not sure .................................................................................. 4 Total Democrat 43 Total Republican 36
look at todays real clear politics... all of a sudden the race is tight. herding anyone? look at that abc garbage they were plus 12 on Tuesday. they lost 5 or 6 points in 3 days? abc and nbc and ppp are charter members of the Most Slanted Polls in America (tm) group. General Election: Trump vs. Clinton LA Times/USC Tracking Clinton 44, Trump 46 Trump +2 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein ABC News Tracking Clinton 48, Trump 44, Johnson 4, Stein 1 Clinton +4 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton ABC News Tracking Clinton 50, Trump 45 Clinton +5 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Rasmussen Reports Clinton 45, Trump 45, Johnson 3, Stein 2 Tie General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein IBD/TIPP Tracking Clinton 44, Trump 41, Johnson 7, Stein 2 Clinton +3 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton IBD/TIPP Tracking Clinton 45, Trump 42 Clinton +3
Today was not a good day for team Hillary.Attention whoring wanna be kingmaker James Comey has caused our dear Madam Hillary's betting market numbers to drop 7-8 points.Polls usually follow the betting market so I expect her poll numbers to drop a few points as well.Hillary will still win though.
many polls have herded as predicted and inside the margin for error. the algo is no speaking but... Jem will. I am working on the following thesis... If one candidate has a 10 point lead or more with independents and he or she had a big turnout in the primaries... he or she will win. at the moment Trump has a 16 point or 17 lead with indpendents according to the IBD and ABC polls respectively. So the JEM independents plus that other guy who is always right poll says if Trump keeps his 16 point lead with independents he will win. the only reason I am not saying this for sure... is that Soros owns one of hte the voting machine companys. Will the FBI please look into that as well right now. That would like letting the Koch brothers brothers own them.
New NBC poll.Hillary +6 http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/da...al-lead-over-trump-despite-fbi-letter-n675771 Poll: Clinton Maintains National Lead Over Trump Despite FBI Letter by Hannah Hartig, John Lapinski and Stephanie Psyllos Hillary Clinton's 6-point national lead over Donald Trump remains virtually unchanged since last week, even after FBI Director James Comey announced the discovery of emails that could be "pertinent" to the investigation of Clinton's use of a private email server. The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll showed Clinton with a 6-point lead over Trump in the days prior to the Comey news. When looking at the data for Saturday and Sunday only, her lead remained the same — 47 percent to Trump's 41 percent. The poll was conducted online from October 24 through October 30. Questions about Comey's announcement were included on October 29 and October 30.