economist you gov poll hillary up by 5. 511 D... 418 I... 312 R... for a total of 1241 surveyed. with independents favoring trump 43 to 30. these polls are nuts. Gallup says that in terms of ID... it should be... D 32, I 40, R 32 in terms of overall population party identification. so we know that in terms of likely voters... R would be much closer to D. But the take away is that if Independents favor trump by that much. how can Hillary win without a massive turnout? if trump can only claw back a few never trumpers he can win.
is there a hidden trump vote? http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presi...st-him-but-theres-a-hidden-donald-trump-vote/ Former Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, a Hillary Clinton ally, says Clinton’s campaign should not declare victory too early because it could suppress voter turnout, especially with black voters. He also admitted the media favors Clinton over Donald Trump and suggested there is a hidden Trump vote. “I think there’s a hidden Donald Trump vote,” Rendell tells Rich Zeoli, a Philadelphia radio host. “All this talk about it being over and now the real contest is the Senate is going to persuade a couple of Hillary Clinton voters and Democratic voters to say ‘Well, what do I have to stand on line for an hour [to vote] for?’” Rendell cautioned, “There a lot of things that are in motion that are favorable to Donald Trump. I wouldn’t say that it’s over then. The odds are that he’s going to lose, but I wouldn’t bet my life on it.” Regarding black voters, Rendell added: If you’re an African-American voter and you like Hillary — because you’ve always liked the Clintons — but, you know, it’s not Barack Obama, and you read that Hillary’s got Pennsylvania locked up — the [Philadelphia] Inquirer said that the Trump team had conceded Pennsylvania this morning — you read that and you say she’s going to win anyway. ‘What do I have to stand on line for an hour?’ If I were the Clinton team, I would be desperately worried about that type of talk. Desperately worried. Rendell dismissed the idea that polls were inflated to suppress Trump voter turn out, but said, “The majority of the media’s against Donald Trump and favors Hillary Clinton.”
that should have been... http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx Gallup says that in terms of ID... it should be... D 32, I 40, R 27
New CNBC poll.Hillary +9 http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/27/clinton-nearly-doubles-lead-over-trump-in-latest-cnbc-survey.html Clinton nearly doubles lead over Trump in latest CNBC survey Steve Liesman | @steveliesman 11 Hours Ago CNBC.com With only a dozen days to go before the election, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton has ratcheted up her lead over Republican nominee Donald Trump to 9 points, according to the latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey, nearly doubling her advantage from the last poll. After weeks and months of what many Republican strategists called verbal and strategic missteps by Trump, and despite potentially ruinous revelations from leaked Clinton campaign emails, the Democrat leads the Republican nominee by 46 percent to 37 percent among registered voters in a two-way race and by the same margin among likely voters. In June, Clinton led by just 5 points. The CNBC survey of 804 Americans around the country, including all age and income groups, was conducted by Hart Research Associates on the Democratic side and Public Opinion Strategies on the Republican side. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 points, meaning Clinton's lead could be as large as 16 points or as small as 2 points. It was conducted Oct. 21 to 24.
Trump said he could win in CA and NY http://www.mercurynews.com/2016/10/...ps-numbers-dropping-into-uncharted-territory/ California poll: Trump’s numbers dropping into ‘uncharted territory’ Donald Trump is careening toward a historically poor showing in California, a prospect that has left several GOP congressmen fearful for their seats and Democrats hopeful they can regain a supermajority in the Legislature. According to a new poll from the Public Policy Institute of California, in just one month Democrat Hillary Clinton’s lead over Trump has soared from 16 to 26 points as the brash billionaire’s campaign has imploded amid allegations that he’s a serial groper. He now has the support of only 28 percent of likely California voters, the poll found. The contest for retiring U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer’s seat is also unlikely to deliver much drama on election night, the poll found. California Attorney General Kamala Harris leads Loretta Sanchez, an Orange County congresswoman, by 22 points. Ballot measures to legalize marijuana and increase the tax on a pack of cigarettes by $2 also continue to command strong majorities, despite some softening of support, according to the poll. Less than two weeks before Election Day, the biggest question in California is whether Trump’s dismal showing drags down several Republican congressmen if unenthusiastic GOP voters decided not to cast votes. Just several weeks ago, the congressmen appeared to be defending safe seats. Only 46 percent of Republicans are more excited than usual to cast ballots in the presidential election. That’s down from 70 percent four years ago and 11 points less than the 57 percent of Democrats who told PPIC survey takers that they were more excited than usual to vote. A staggering 50 percent of Republicans say they now have an unfavorable view of their party, and 60 percent were unsatisfied with their choices for president, the poll found. Those figures must be “worrisome” for Republicans in competitive congressional districts, said PPIC President and CEO Mark Baldassare. “You’re used to having an enthusiasm gap in your favor, and you don’t have that now,” he said. While Democrats have little chance of winning the 30 seats needed to retake the House, they could make a bigger dent than expected in California with four Republican incumbents now facing competitive races: Jeff Denham and David Valadao in the Central Valley, Steve Knight in Los Angeles County, and Darrell Issa in the San Diego suburbs. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report recently declared three of those races “tossups” while downgrading Valadao’s seat from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.” Local GOP candidates were never going to get much help from a ballot in which two Democrats are competing for the open U.S. Senate seat, and no ballot measure has captured the imagination of Republican voters. But Trump’s dismal poll numbers makes their plight even more difficult, said Bill Whalen, a former Republican operative who is now a research fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution. “Twenty-eight percent is uncharted territory,” he said, noting that the worst showing by a Republican presidential nominee in California was Alfred Landon, who won 31 percent of the vote in 1936. John McCain and Mitt Romney each won 37 percent. “Republicans should be concerned,” Whalen said. “The numbers are dreadful.” Trump could even impact the state Legislature because Democrats need to win just two Assembly seats and one Senate seat to regain a two-thirds majority. If they succeed, Democrats would be able to raise taxes, override vetoes and put constitutional measures on the ballot without a single Republican vote. Several Democratic candidates have sought to tie their opponents to Trump — even those who have said they wouldn’t vote for him. “It is having a negative impact,” the Assembly’s GOP caucus leader, Chad Mayes, told CALmatters. “It makes these races more competitive than they otherwise would be.” Some GOP strategists, however, say they remain hopeful because early voting figures don’t show much of a drop-off among Republican voters. Republicans account for 28 percent of vote-by-mail voters and so far have sent in 31 percent of completed ballots, according to Los Angeles County-based Political Data Inc. Four years ago, GOP voters accounted for 32 percent of absentee voters and 36 percent of early ballots. “There is a Democratic bump going on, but it’s not nearly as pronounced as the enthusiasm quotient would indicate,” said Wayne Johnson, a Sacramento-based Republican strategist. The poll’s biggest shift came in the U.S. Senate race: Harris’ lead jumped from 7 points last month to 22 points this month. Despite the large numbers of uncommitted voters, Baldassare couldn’t think of any precedent for a Sanchez upset. “When you start at 20 percent today, how to do you get to 50 percent in a two-person race?” he said. The tobacco industry also appears to be facing defeat in its battle to crush the steep hike in California’s tobacco tax. Proposition 56, which the industry has spent more than $70 million to defeat with a flood of ads that fact checkers have called highly misleading, has the backing of 56 percent of voters, the poll found. Only 38 percent said they planned to vote against the tax. Bill Carrick, a Democratic strategist who ran a failed tobacco tax hike in 2004, said the industry’s message might be getting diluted by the sheer volume of political ads flooding the airwaves, including pro-Proposition 56 ads funded by Tom Steyer, a San Francisco billionaire whose mother died of lung cancer. “I think Tom has given them a fighting chance,” he said. “In 2004, we just were getting pounded without much capacity to respond.” The PPIC poll showed a slight decline for Proposition 64, a measure to legalize recreational marijuana from 60 percent to 55 percent, but Baldassare said it was still in a strong position to win. So is Proposition 55, an extension of a tax on wealthy residents, which has 59 percent support. But Proposition 51, a $9 billion school bond, is struggling. The poll found 46 percent of voters supportive of the bond and 41 percent against it.