New Ipsos/Reuters poll.Hillary +6 http://talkingpointsmemo.com/polltracker/clinton-ahead-six-points-tracking-poll Clinton Leads By Six Points In Ipsos/Reuters Tracking Poll AP Photo / Matt Rourke ByDanielle Keeton-OlsenPublishedOctober 26, 2016, 10:10 AM EDT Hillary Clinton leads by six points nationally, widening her lead slightly in the latest update of the Ipsos/Reuters tracking poll, conducted after the final presidential debate. Clinton leads Donald Trump in a head-to-head match, 43-37, among likely voters surveyed nationally. When third-party candidates are included, Clinton leads by four points, 42-38, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 7 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2 percent. The Ipsos/Reuters poll conducted last week showed Clinton +4, which she expanded to +6 this week, in a two-way poll. In the four-way poll, Clinton led +4 both last week and this week. The Ipsos/Reuters tracking poll was conducted online from Oct. 20-24 among 1,170 likely voters nationwide, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percent. TPM's PollTracker Average for the general election shows Clinton leading Trump, 48.1 to 41.2.
New USA Today poll.Hillary +10 http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...worried-election-day-violence-trump/92712708/ Poll: Clinton builds lead in divided nation worried about Election Day violence (Photo: Andrew Harnik, AP) WASHINGTON — As the most caustic campaign in modern American history nears its close, Hillary Clinton has built a formidable lead over Donald Trump approaching 10 percentage points, a USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll finds. But she faces a deeply divided nation that is alarmed about the prospect of Election Day violence and what may be ahead.
Fox News Poll: Clinton leads Trump by three points http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/10/26/fox-news-poll-clinton-leads-trump-by-three-points.html With less than two weeks to go, the race for the White House has narrowed as Hillary Clinton now has a three-point advantage over Donald Trump. That’s within the margin of error of the national Fox News Poll of likely voters. Clinton is ahead of Trump by 44-41 percent. Another one-in-ten back a third-party candidate and four percent are undecided. Last week she was up by six points (45-39 percent) and before that by seven (45-38 percent). The poll, released Wednesday, finds Clinton leads 49-44 percent in the head-to-head matchup. That 5-point advantage is at the edge of the error margin. She was up 7 a week ago (49-42 percent). CLICK HERE TO READ THE FULL POLL RESULTS. Trump is helped by increased backing among independents and greater strength of support: 68 percent of those backing Trump support him “strongly,” compared to 61 percent for Clinton.
New Associated Press-GfK poll.Hillary +14 http://time.com/4546942/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-lead-poll/ Hillary Clinton Leads Donald Trump by 14 Points Nationally in New Poll Mahita Gajanan @mahitagajanan 5:49 PM ET The Democratic nominee leads Trump among likely voters 51% to 37% Hillary Clinton has widened her lead over Donald Trump, polling 14 percentage points ahead nationally, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll, which comes 12 days before the presidential election. Conducted after the final presidential debate, the poll finds the Democratic nominee leads Trump among likely voters 51% to 37%, a significant lead over the Republican candidate. According to the poll, Clinton has support of 90% of likely Democratic voters, as well as support from 15% of moderate Republicans. Of the Republicans surveyed, 79% said they would vote for Trump. The poll finds that Clinton has consolidated the support of her party, while even managing to draw Republican voters. The margin of error for the AP-GfK poll, conducted between Oct. 20-24, is plus or minus 2.75 percentage points.
Hillary ahead in 11 of the last 11 polls with a + 5.6 average While Hillary has a + 5.6 RCP average,Obama only had a +0.9 RCP average on 10-26-12.Like Obama,I think Hillary's real numbers are higher than The RCP average
Here's some predictions. If Clinton wins the election comfortably, Jem will claim the polls he likes now were "right" but that there was a sudden wave of Democratic voters in the last few days. Achilles28 will claim the entire vote was "rigged" ( despite no evidence of it beyond a statistically irrelevant number of voters ). Scat---- will create some derogatory name for Clinton and post thousands of negative posts about her for 4 years, blaming her for every problem in the US, even those that source directly to GWB. The relative size of victory will not phase these people on these points. Myself, I suspect Clinton wins a huge majority of female voters and election analysts will credit that and visible minority voters for her margin of victory. That will further piss off some of the regulars here who are mostly angry, white males that feel the US is letting them down in some way. Higher personal taxes and health care premiums are a given under either leader. They won't realize that a Trump victory would have resulted in trade deals that messed with their economy and a higher federal deficit doing silly projects like a fancy wall to Mexico.
Yeah yeah, you found someone who said "none". Bet I can find a contard who thinks the whole election is rigged.
how many times do I have say the same thing. A good poll reveals its template and uses the 2012 election results as a template... give or take a point for feel. that is a good poll. regarding actual results... The actual turnout may be significantly different than 2012. If you feel it will be, go ahead and predict it. Will it be more democrat, more minority, more people who have not voted in years? go for it, let us know. Imo predicting a different turnout with your poll should be disclosed. I didn't read any poll claiming to do that. In summary... if a poll is trying to predict that this year will be differ from the 2012 turnout it should let us know, otherwise it should use the 2012 template to be a good poll. again... final results may differ.
I don't get how you guys could read what I written the last month about good polls and think that means I say Trump is leading. Even the good polls have it in the margin for error or hillary in the lead by a bit. On top of that I said it will therefore be all about the states elections and I have not looked at those polls much because I don't have the data. So where the fuck are you guys getting off thinking I will be surprised by a hillary win and speculating what I will say. I suspect hillary is going to win unless dems don't show and a lot of people are going to vote for trump but were afraid to admit it. I put that later scenario at about a 25% chance.