https://www.yahoo.com/news/poll-clinton-gaining-ground-young-voters-072744465--election.html Poll: Clinton gaining ground with young voters October 25, 2016 WASHINGTON (AP) — Liane Golightly has finally decided who she'll vote for on Election Day. Hillary Clinton is not a choice the 30-year-old Republican would have predicted, nor one that excites her. But the former supporter of Ohio Gov. John Kasich says it's the only choice she can make. "I kind of wish it were somebody else, somebody that I could really get behind 100 percent," said Golightly, an educator from Monroe, Michigan. She's voting for Clinton, she said, only because she can't stomach "childish" Donald Trump. Like Golightly, many young voters are coming over to Clinton in the closing stretch of the 2016 campaign, according to a new GenForward poll of Americans 18 to 30. Driving the shift are white voters, who were divided between the two candidates just a month ago and were more likely to support GOP nominee Mitt Romney than President Barack Obama in 2012. In the new GenForward survey, Clinton leads among all young whites 35 percent to 22 percent, and by a 2-to-1 margin among those who are likely to vote. Clinton held a consistent advantage among young African-Americans, Asian-Americans and Hispanics in earlier GenForward polls, as she does in the new survey. The new poll also suggests enthusiasm for voting has recently increased among young African-Americans, 49 percent of whom say they will definitely vote in November after only 39 percent said so in September. Just over half of young whites, and about 4 in 10 Hispanics and Asian-Americans, say they will definitely vote. GenForward is a survey of adults age 18 to 30 by the Black Youth Project at the University of Chicago with the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. The first-of-its-kind poll pays special attention to the voices of young adults of color, highlighting how race and ethnicity shape the opinions of a new generation. Overall, Clinton leads Trump among young likely voters 60 percent to 19 percent, with 12 percent supporting Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and 6 percent behind the Green Party's Jill Stein. If Clinton and Trump receive that level of support on Election Day, Clinton would match Obama's level of 2012 while Trump would fall short of Romney's. It's not necessarily because they like Clinton, but is nevertheless a late sign of strength among a voting bloc that the former secretary of state has struggled to win over. "There's a gray area with her, where maybe she hasn't broken any laws, but she's always skirting the edge, it seems," said Galen Mosher, 30, a lighting technician from Sandy, Oregon, who voted for Clinton's primary rival, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. Mosher, who is white, said he got behind Clinton once she won the Democratic nomination, because "at least she's a step" toward the free college tuition and higher taxes for wealthy people that Sanders had proposed. The poll also provides evidence that Trump's behavior toward women has hurt him among young voters, while Clinton's characterization of a large portion of the New York billionaire's supporters as "deplorable" did not damage her candidacy. The GenForward survey included interviews both before and after the release of a 2005 recording on which Trump brags about sexually assaulting women. But support for Trump didn't shift among young voters overall or among young whites after the tape was released, suggesting the shift in young whites to Clinton came first. All of the poll interviews, however, were conducted after the first presidential debate, when Clinton told the story of former Miss Universe Alicia Machado and Trump's assessment of her as a "Miss Piggy" after she gained weight. Most young people across racial and ethnic lines say that Clinton's accusations in that debate about Trump's behavior made them less likely to support the GOP nominee. Most young people weren't turned off by Clinton calling some Trump supporters "deplorable" in September. Sixty-two percent of young adults, including 82 percent of African-Americans, three-quarters of Latinos and Asian-Americans and 51 percent of whites said they agree with her assessment. The poll also found that 45 percent of young adults have a favorable view of Clinton, while just 17 percent say the same of Trump. Conversely, half have an unfavorable view of Clinton and 77 percent have that view of Trump. Young whites say they have a more favorable view of Clinton now than going into the fall. Among that group, three-quarters have an unfavorable view of Trump now, up from 67 percent in September. The survey also showed young whites are slightly less likely to see Trump as qualified to be president, down from 30 percent in September to 24 percent.
https://gma.yahoo.com/diminished-en...-support-111804589--abc-news-topstories.html# Diminished Enthusiasm Dogs Trump; Clinton Gains in Affirmative Support (POLL) Diminished enthusiasm and a high level of negative support are undermining Donald Trump's candidacy in the closing stretch of the 2016 campaign, the ABC News election tracking poll finds, while Hillary Clinton has improved on both these measures. Fifty-six percent of Clinton's backers in the national survey — a new high — say they're voting mainly to support her rather than to oppose Trump. By contrast, 54 percent of Trump voters are mainly motivated by opposition to Clinton, not support for him. See PDF with full results, charts and tables here. Affirmative support can be a stronger motivator to vote, and Clinton's has gained 9 points from its low just before the party conventions in July. Trump's affirmative support, by contrast, has been essentially flat in the same period. Levels of enthusiasm for the candidates, while similar overall, have also followed different trajectories. Fifty-two percent of Clinton's supporters now describe themselves as very enthusiastic about their choice — the highest level to date and up sharply from 36 percent in early September. Among Trump supporters, 49 percent are strongly enthusiastic; he peaked on this measure in late September. Donald Trump Disputes Polls, Threatens Lawsuits Play video The result of these trends is that Trump's 12-point advantage in strong enthusiasm just after Labor Day is now a (nonsignificant) 3-point deficit to Clinton. In ABC News/Washington Post polling since 2000, the candidate with more strongly enthusiastic support has won. As first reported Sunday, the first three nights of the 2016 ABC News tracking poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, found Clinton with her biggest lead of the campaign in vote preference, 50 to 38 percent over Trump among likely voters. That will be updated in tomorrow's report. In one noteworthy result, 5 percent of likely voters in the survey indicate that they have already voted, a number in line with estimates reported by turnout expert Michael McDonald of the University of Florida. Total early and absentee voting is expected to reach more than a third of votes cast — a record. October leads of this magnitude have been seen often in ABC/Post pre-election polls: 11 points for Barack Obama over John McCain in 2008, 19 for Bill Clinton versus Bob Dole in 1996, 13 for Clinton over George Bush in 1992, 13 for Bush versus Mike Dukakis in 1988 and 18 points for Ronald Reagan over Walter Mondale in 1984. With the exception of 1984, the final outcome narrowed in each case, but the leader won. Clinton, Trump Make Final Push as Election Day Nea … Play video Groups There are differences among each candidate's supporters in strong enthusiasm. Fifty-seven percent of women who favor Clinton are very enthusiastic about it, compared with 44 percent of men. Among those age 50 and up, 61 percent are very enthusiastic, compared with 41 percent of her supporters younger than 50. Liberals who back Clinton are more strongly enthusiastic than moderates, 59 versus 45 percent. In Trump's case, strong enthusiasm peaks at 59 percent among his very conservative supporters, dropping to 43 percent among somewhat conservatives and moderates. In terms of affirmative and negative support, liberals who back Clinton are more for her than against Trump, 62 to 35 percent, while moderates divide evenly. By contrast, 57 percent of conservatives who back Trump say they're mostly opposing Clinton, compared with a split among moderates. In no group, save rural voters, does a majority back Trump affirmatively. The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York City, with sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York City. See details on the survey's methodology here.
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016...business-economists-have-a-strong-preference/ http://money.cnn.com/2016/07/15/investing/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-stock-market/index.html
I find it difficult to fathom that Hillary would be ahead or even close in Arizona. This is due to illegal immigration being such a hot issue there. This leads me to believe that at least some of the polling this cycle is flawed or skewed. It's possible that she is doing well there, but it seems unlikely to me..--Izzy
I have never seen any studies that claim polls determine election results. It is, of course, supposed to be the other way around. The polls, if they are statistically valid, are supposed to reflect the current leanings of the voters. It is someone with a conspiracy mindset that would think that the polls are slanted to throw an election.
Or it is simply a reflection of the revulsion that Trump invokes in educated voters, that makes Hillary, by comparison, seem so much better.
that is the point... I have been making this entire thread and part of that one. what is a good poll? Not a forecast... a good poll.
I judge a poll by how it sets up its template... not be how well it picks a pretty much binary result. our presidential poll sample size is far to low and the polls far too wrong in off years to try and say they are good are forecasting... imo.