let me know if you are discerning enough to see the difference between my proper polling call on November 5th... (which was the point of the whole thread) which was 100 percent accurate ... vs my personal desire to see Romney win?
just like now. a proper template is the 2012 template give or take 1 or 2. I am against hillary but when you unskew the polls which reveal their templates she is still leading in some of them. I hope that the people turn out in numbers stronger for rs and weaker for ds vs. 2012. But... that is a hope independent of what is a good polling template.
Your Nov 5th post was very vague and did not say who was ahead or who you thought would win.Your Nov 4th and 6th post was more specific.
The IBD poll which has been accurate especially in 2004 and 2008 lists the following methodology. Check out the weighting. Also, right now this poll has Trump up 1 point nationally. Results based on survey of 815 likely voters conducted from 10/18 - 10/23. Margin of error: +/- 3.6 percentage points. Party identification breakdown: (Unweighted) 261 Democrats/261 Republicans/275 Independents; (Weighted) 291/235/271. IBD's polling partner TechnoMetrica uses "traditional" telephone methodology using live interviewers for data collection for its public opinion surveys. Roughly 65% of interviews come from a cell phone sample and 35% from a Random Digit Dial (RDD) land line sample.
A guy walks into a bar and asks the bartender, "Hey - is that Trump and Pence over there?" Yep - sure is. Go say hey; they're friendly. Guy walks over to Trump and Pence, "Excuse me but I just wanted to say that I am a big fan of both of you. Whatcha talking about?" Trump replies, "World War 3. We're gonna nuke 140 million Muslims and Hillary Clinton." Guy inquires, "Why would you want to kill 140 million Muslim's?" Trump laughs and points to Pence,.... "See, I told you no one cares about that bitch."
2012 Ibb/tipps last two polls had Obama + 1,Obama won by + 4.Multiple other polls were closer to the final result than Ibb tipp
2008 IBD/TPP last 2 polls were Obama + 3 and Obama +8.Obama won by + 7.Multiple poll results were just as good as IBD /TPP