Just a reminder to you skewed polled believers http://www.theatlantic.com/politics...romney-ticket-believed-unskewed-polls/321618/ The Whole Romney Ticket Believed in Unskewed Polls? Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan both believed the public polls were wrong, and that they'd win on Election Day. Their wives did, too. Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan both believed the public polls were wrong, and that they'd win on Election Day. Their wives did, too. "I don't think there was one person who saw this coming," a senior adviser told CBS News' Jan Crawford. An advisor said of Romney, "He was shellshocked." When Romney claimed on Election Day that he hadn't written a concession speech, it sounded like trash talk. Apparently it wasn't. How could they not have seen it coming? In the last weeks of the campaign, Romney's campaign sounded super confident -- New York's Jonathan Chait wrote that they were bluffing when aides said they could win Nevada, or when Romney surrogate Rob Portman called Ohio a "dead heat." That sounded ridiculous because Romney never led Obama in polling averages of Ohio, and Obama was ahead or tied in all of the last 30 polls done in the state except one by Republican-leaning Rasmussen. Conservatives began claiming the polls were wrong, that they vastly overestimated what turnout levels would be among blacks, Latinos, and young people. UnSkewedPolls.com changed the number of Democrats and Republicans in polls to show Romney leading everywhere. You'd expect Romney's campaign to play this up publicly to maintain supporters' enthusiasm -- like when political director Rich Beeson said the Sunday before the election that Romney would win more than 300 electoral college votes. But you don't expect them to actually believe it. But Romney, his wife, Ryan, and his wife apparently did. Crawford reports: Romney was stoic as he talked the president, an aide said, but his wife Ann cried. Running mate Paul Ryan seemed genuinely shocked, the adviser said. Ryan's wife Janna also was shaken and cried softly. "There's nothing worse than when you think you're going to win, and you don't," said another adviser. "It was like a sucker punch." Their emotion was visible on their faces when they walked on stage after Romney finished his remarks, which Romney had hastily composed, knowing he had to say something. The Atlantic Wire noted earlier in the campaign that Romney kept getting in trouble when he'd repeat memes from conservative blogs -- like the infamous 47 percent. But that they actually bought blogger denial of cold, hard numbers is surprising. Did it have an actual impact on their strategy? A statement from Brett Doster, seems to suggest so: "The numbers in Florida show this was winnable. We thought based on our polling and range of organization that we had done what we needed to win. Obviously, we didn’t, and for that I and every other operative in Florida has a sick feeling that we left something on the table."
http://www.dickmorris.com/dont-believe-poll-propaganda/ Don’t Believe Poll Propaganda By Dick Morris on August 10, 2012 Dear Friend, I was outraged today when I saw a Washington Post article headlined “Three Polls Show Obama Widening Lead Over Romney.” One was a poll from FOX News that showed Obama 9 points ahead. The others were surveys by CNN and Reuters showing a 7 point Obama lead. NOT TRUE! Click Here to read the Washington Post article I am referring to. The real numbers, of likely voters are found in the Rasmussen Polls which had Romney ahead by three yesterday and four today. Gallup, which surveys registered voters (as opposed to likely voters) has the race tied at 46-46. There are several factors which explain the difference: 1. Obama’s voters don’t want to come out and vote for him. They are only lukewarm and are not people who always vote. Cynical and apathetic, they do not begin to approximate the intensity of the Romney voters or even of the 2008 Obama backers. 2. Black turnout is traditionally 11% of the total vote. In 2008, rose to 14%, providing Obama with more than half of his margin of victory. Current polls suggest a reversion to the pre-2008 turnout level, but polling firms that do not measure voter intention can’t tell that and weight the black vote up to 12, 13, or even 14 percent, padding Obama’s vote artificially. 3. Likewise with Latino vote which was 7% of the vote and grew to 8.5% in 2008. Their votes this time show signs of returning to historic norms 4. Polls of registered voters tend to weight up the Democratic respondents, according their opinions more weight in the poll. That’s because their data usually shows fewer Democrats in their sample than in national registration figures. But, in weighting for party, they obscure the fact that a great many registered Democrats have left the Party, particularly in the past few years, a finding that is obliterated by the weighting. The fact is that Rasmussen and Gallup both showed drops for Romney about 4-5 days ago when negative coverage of his foreign trip (itself a sign of media bias) tended to dampen his ratings. But both have shown a recovery since. Rasmussen and Gallup poll every day. The other polls are conducted over a period of several days. So the Rasmussen and Gallup data are a few days fresher than the other polls and reflect Romney’s recovery. Thanks, Dick Morris
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog..._indicate_obamas_in_trouble_-_not_romney.html September 27, 2012 Skewed polls indicate Obama's in trouble - not Romney By Keith Edwards Certain media polls indicating Obama is ahead of Mitt Romney by as much as 10 to 12 points in swing states seem to spell disaster for Romney, but what they really say about the Obama campaign may just surprise you? The absurdity of the skewed sample models in those polls is one thing, but what conservatives need to understand is that polls skewed to heavily favor Democrats logically point to one very important fact - Obama is in big trouble. For one thing, Democrats and the liberal media are taking a huge chance by touting polls showing Obama up by double digits in crucial swing states as if these polls were totally valid. Obviously designed politically to depress and suppress Romney voters, these media driven and heavily reported polls can also backfire and suppress the Obama vote. Naturally, if you support Obama and are treated every day to wall-to-wall news headlines showing Obama so far ahead of Romney in the polls that the election is basically over, then you're less likely to go out of your way to vote in November. So there's a really fine line between turning out your voters and turning off your voters when using polling data like this. In this case, it is probably safe to say that internal Democrat polls show low enthusiasm and turnout expectations for Obama supporters across the electorate demographic, so the skewed poll strategy is worth the risk for the campaign. This risky strategy also indicates that internal Democrat polling is probably more in line with Rasmussen and Dick Morris, showing that Obama is running even or maybe even losing ground to Romney in swing states. Conventional political wisdom makes this evident because a campaign wouldn't waste time and money in states where their candidate is up by 10 or more points, but Obama has a full schedule in all the swing states and you can bet it's not because he's trying to build a 20 point lead before the election. Obama is spending a lot of time and money in those states precisely because his campaign knows it's either very close or he is running behind. Furthermore, these polls showing huge leads for Obama are not showing any signs of discouraging Romney supporters. In fact, this aspect of the strategy may also backfire and intensify fervor and enthusiasm for Romney just like the attacks on the Tea Party did in 2010 and the attacks on Governor Scott Walker did in Wisconsin turning out record Republican and conservative voters. Don't be fooled, these skewed polls only show that the Obama campaign and the liberal media are running on empty and desperate enough to try anything to win this election. Fortunately for America it's not going to work.
you always fall back on that bullshit.... you seem to forget we argued the polls were very skewed when they oversampled dems by 8 to 18 points. then Nate Silver even explained they herded in front of the election and unskewed putting romney in the lead in many of them. then there was the storm and the hug right in front of the election. that Obama won by 4 is proof the polls that oversampled by amounts much larger than say 6 or 7 were very skewed. finally don't forget you polls were very wrong in 2014
background to my thread in 2012... Obama won by 7 in 2008. 53 to 46 Obama won by 4 in 2012. here is what I said on ET on Nov. 5th --- in 2012 about polls and templates... and I got it 100 percent on the money in terms what a proper polling template should be. my hope/prediction was off but my proper polling template call was perfect. ---- https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/romney-looks-like-the-next-pres.240772/page-335 polls slanted greater to the Dems than the 2008 the template are leftist frauds... and they should be chastised. This will include the crazy predictions made by nate silver. polls with the 2008 template are leftists, fools, or blind. even axelrod said last night they will not do as well as 2008. poll between 2010 and 2008 are professional... perhaps a little partisan as they get closer to 2008. polls with 2010... are perhaps a bit partisan to the Rs but smart. but IMO polls should slanted more to the Is and the Rs because that is what the turnout on Tuesday will teach us. all these pollsters... underweighted the Is." --