New Quinnipac poll.Hillary +7 http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/clinton-trump-national-poll-who-is-winning-229995 Quinnipiac poll: Clinton up 7 nationally By Nolan D. McCaskill 10/19/16 02:54 PM EDT Hillary Clinton has a 7-point lead over Donald Trump nationally, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday. Heading into the third and final presidential debate, Clinton tops Trump among likely voters, 47 percent to 40 percent. Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson has 7 percent support, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein registers at 1 percent. More than 9 in 10 Democrats are behind Clinton, while 8 in 10 Republicans are backing Trump, who has a 4-point advantage among independents. Clinton and Trump are separated by a 2-point margin among men, 43 to 41. The former secretary of state, however, has double-digit advantages among women (52 to 37) and minority voters (63 to 25). Clinton also edges Trump among white, college-educated voters (46 to 42), while Trump prevails by double digits with white voters without a college degree (49 to 35). According to the survey, the race is also tight among voters 50 and older, though Clinton leads substantially with voters age 18 to 34, and 35 to 49. The Quinnipiac University survey of 1,007 likely voters was conducted Oct. 17-18 via landlines and cellphones. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
New Bloomberg poll.Hillary + 9 http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-19/national-poll Clinton Has 9-Point Lead as Comeback Obstacles Loom for Trump Ahead of their final debate, the survey “shows movement toward Clinton with all the right groups it takes to win.” Donald Trump would need to stage a historic comeback to win the White House in 20 days as key slices of the electorate drift away from his candidacy, according to the latest Bloomberg Politics national poll. Democrat Hillary Clinton leads Trump by 9 percentage points in the survey of likely voters, taken after a leaked video prompted a series of women to come forward alleging the Republican made unwanted sexual advances. Support for Trump among critical groups of voters, including men and the less educated, has weakened in the campaign’s closing days, a trajectory that could translate into a landslide loss for Republicans in the Electoral College and setbacks in down-ballot races that will determine control of the House and Senate. “This poll shows movement toward Clinton with all the right groups it takes to win—including men and those without a college degree,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer, who oversaw the survey ahead of the final debate Wednesday. “Their alignment with Clinton is a formidable change in the algebra.”
Hillary only behind 3 and 4 points in the 2 most recent Texas polls. Romney was ahead of Obama around 17 points
including leans... that poll was 45 to 38 dem to rep. so if the poll is reporting accurately hillary would be leading by 5 or 6 based on the 2012 template. it was a poll of 1300 people and has a 3.1 margin of error. not good for trump if the voters turn out the way they did in 2012 and this poll was truthful. trump is going to need a lot of reagan democrats and non voters to come out if he is going to win. or something big happens.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...and-worst-in-the-2012-presidential-race/?_r=0 Which Polls Fared Best (and Worst) in the 2012 Presidential Race "Among the more prolific polling firms, the most accurate by this measure was TIPP, which conducted a national tracking poll for Investors’ Business Daily." http://www.investors.com/politics/t...t-going-into-debate-in-ibdtipp-tracking-poll/
if that doesn't mean anything there is no "science" in polling. the template is a very important part of the process.
frankly I am suprised - but these are today's new polls... as I type this on real clear politics. Its very much not over if these polls show that the "battleground states will be close." I am sure it will change when the crap polls manipulate their templates to their desired results... (but. IBD is superior to all those per the tony stark algo.) General Election: Trump vs. Clinton LA Times/USC Tracking Clinton 44, Trump 44 Tie General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein IBD/TIPP Tracking Clinton 40, Trump 41, Johnson 7, Stein 5 Trump +1 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton IBD/TIPP Tracking Clinton 43, Trump 41 Clinton +2 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Rasmussen Reports Clinton 40, Trump 43, Johnson 6, Stein 3 Trump +3
jem,I have previously stated who's ahead in the majority of polls is the biggest factor in polling in The Tony Algo. IBD is a good poll but one good poll having Trump +1 does not outweigh 11 good polls having Hillary ahead.