The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo

Discussion in 'Politics' started by jem, Jul 27, 2016.

  1. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark

    New NBC/WSJ poll.Hillary + 11

    http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/fir...oint-national-lead-over-trump-nbc-wsj-n666986



    Clinton Holds 11-Point National Lead Over Trump: NBC/WSJ Poll

    by Mark Murray



    Hillary Clinton is ahead of Donald Trump by double digits with just over three weeks until Election Day, according to a new national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted entirely after the second presidential debate.

    In a four-way race, Democrat Clinton holds an 11-point lead over Republican Trump among likely voters, 48 percent to 37 percent, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 7 percent and the Green Party's Jill Stein at 2 percent.


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    In a two-way contest without Johnson and Stein, Clinton is ahead by 10 points, 51 percent to 41 percent.


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    Oct 16 2016, 9:53 am ET

    An earlier NBC/WSJ poll — conducted two days after 2005 video surfaced of Trump making vulgar comments to describe kissing and groping women — found Clinton leading by double digits among likely voters. But after another day of polling taken immediately after the Oct. 9 debate, the entire Oct. 8-10 poll showed Clinton's lead at nine points in the four-way contest (46 percent to 37 percent) and 10 points in a head-to-head race (50 percent to 40 percent).

    To put Clinton's current 11-point lead into perspective, Barack Obama beat John McCain by seven points nationally in 2008. And Obama's margin of victory over Mitt Romney in 2012 was four points.

    "Donald Trump's chances of winning this election have faded," says Democratic pollster Fred Yang of Hart Research Associates, which conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff and his firm Public Opinion Strategies.

    "This poll is showing the writing on the wall," Yang adds.

    And the Republican McInturff observes that Trump "is in a weaker position than in September," and that his numbers in the poll don't align with anyone who has gone on to win a presidential election.

    Clinton Up By 20 Pts Among Women

    Looking inside the numbers of the two-way horse race, Clinton holds a 20-point lead among female voters (55 percent to 35 percent), while Trump is ahead among men by just three points (48 percent to 45 percent).

    Clinton also has the advantage among African Americans (86 percent to 9 percent), non-white voters (76 percent to 16 percent) and those ages 18-34 (54 percent to 36 percent).
     
    #571     Oct 16, 2016
  2. jem

    jem

    is that another crap poll of nbc which does not show its template? I will bet they were 7 to 15 points democrat rich and very lean with the independents to rig that result. Hillary may be up but not by that much.

    for instance in todays abc poll hillary is up by 4 but it is 33 dem 25 R. showing the race to be very close. tied according to the algo. no wonder the la times poll is so close.

    and by showing its template and presuming they used it the abc is a non crap poll.

    non crap polls are close...
    the nbc is an "outliar"
     
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2016
    #572     Oct 16, 2016
  3. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/gop-strategists-clinton-good-shape-3-weeks-left-171659178--election.html

    GOP strategists: Clinton is in good shape with 3 weeks left
    Thomas Beaumont, Associated Press,Associated Press 1 hour 2


    DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) -- With roughly three weeks to Election Day, Republican strategists nationwide publicly concede Hillary Clinton has a firm grip on the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the White House — and may be on her way to an even more decisive victory over Donald Trump.

    "He is on track to totally and completely melting down," said Republican pollster Whit Ayres, who is advising Florida Sen. Marco Rubio's re-election campaign. Like many Republican strategists, he was willing to speak publicly about the GOP nominee's rough road ahead at the end of an unprecedented campaign.

    Things can change before Election Day. There is one more presidential debate, and Trump has rallied before. His core supporters remain strongly committed.

    But along with indicators such as polling, campaign travel, staffing and advertising, the interviews with Republican political professionals unaffiliated with the Trump campaign suggest only an epic collapse by Clinton would keep her from winning enough states to become president.

    In the past week, Trump's campaign has been hit by allegations the New York billionaire sexually accosted several women over the past three decades. Early voting in pivotal North Carolina and Florida shows positive signs for Clinton, and donations to the Republican National Committee are down about a quarter over the past three months from the same period in 2012, when Mitt Romney was the nominee.

    Preference polling in the past week, meanwhile, has generally moved in Clinton's direction, with the Democrat improving in national surveys and in a number of contested states.

    If the election were held today, Clinton would likely carry the entire West Coast and Northeast, as well as most of the Great Lakes region — a place Trump once identified as ripe territory for his populist message against free trade.

    Only Ohio is a toss-up in that part of the country, but the perennial battleground may not play a decisive role come Election Day this year due to Clinton's strength — and Trump's weaknesses — elsewhere.

    Trump and running mate Mike Pence have made a hard play for Pennsylvania, a state carried by the Democratic nominee in the past six elections. But their strategy to hold down Clinton in Philadelphia and its suburbs while running up Trump's vote total in more conservative parts of the state has failed to materialize.

    "He's getting his brains beat in by women in the Philly suburbs," said Ed Goeas, a Republican pollster who is surveying presidential battlegrounds and several states with races for U.S. Senate.

    Trump was already struggling to attract support from women before his first debate with Clinton in late September. It was at that event in New York where Clinton stung Trump by reviving his past shaming of a former Miss Universe for gaining weight.

    Trump's response, calling the contestant's weight gain "a real problem" in a TV interview the next day, was quickly eclipsed by the publication of a video from 2005 on which the Republican bragged about using his fame to prey on women.

    An apology followed, but Trump also insisted his comments were nothing more than "locker room talk." He denied at the candidates' second debate that he ever acted in the ways he discussed in the 2005 video.

    Within days, several women had come forward to accuse Trump of unwanted sexual advances and sexual assault. He responded by calling his accusers liars and, on Friday, suggested they were in some instances not physically attractive enough to merit his attention.

    "His entire tack could not be better designed to drive away college-educated women," said Ayres, the GOP pollster.

    Educated women living in suburbs have long been a key part of the GOP coalition, but polls indicate the revelations about Trump's behavior have pushed them toward Clinton in the battleground states of Colorado and Virginia.

    The events have also foiled Trump's late-in-the-campaign plan to re-ignite his hope of carrying Wisconsin. Trump and Pence were to campaign with House Speaker Paul Ryan in his home state a day after the 2005 video was made public. Ryan withdrew his invitation to Trump, and Pence later cancelled.

    Trump can still count on carrying states across the West, the Great Plains and in the South, but Ayers and other Republicans predict he may ultimately end up with fewer than 200 Electoral College votes.

    Should the Republican fall short in Pennsylvania, he would need to post victories in both Florida and Ohio, as well as several other battlegrounds — North Carolina, Virginia, Nevada and New Hampshire among them — to reach 270.

    But that's only if he prevails in reliably Republican Arizona, Georgia and Utah.

    In Utah, Trump's deep unpopularity among the large population of Mormon voters could lead to four candidates winning 10 percent or more of the state's vote. That kind of uncertainty opens the door to a win there for Clinton or for third-party candidates Evan McMullin and Gary Johnson.

    In Arizona, won by the Republican nominee in all but one election since 1952, Trump's characterization of some Hispanic immigrants as criminals has turned off many in the state's growing and Democratic-leaning Hispanic community.

    GOP nominees have carried Georgia in seven of the last eight presidential elections. But about a quarter of the state's voters are African American, a reliably Democratic-voting bloc. Like Virginia, Georgia is also home to well-educated young professionals more likely to favor Clinton, said Chris Jankowski, a Virginia-based national GOP consultant.

    "With Trump bleeding out, he could find himself competing to win the white vote in Georgia," Jankowski said. "That's when you know it's over."

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    #573     Oct 17, 2016
  4. RobRoss

    RobRoss

    I think That's not the real scenario! Trump may win, but there will be complications!
     
    #574     Oct 17, 2016
  5. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark

    New CBS poll.Hillary +9 four way +11 two way


    CBS News October 17, 2016, 6:30 PM
    CBS poll: Clinton's lead over Trump widens with three weeks to go


    Following the second presidential debate and controversies surrounding both campaigns, Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump has expanded to nine points now nationally. Forty-seven percent of likely voters support or lean towards Clinton, while 38 percent support Trump. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson gets 8 percent of likely voters, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 3 percent of the vote. Two weeks ago, Clinton’s lead was four points.


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    In a two-way match-up where third party candidates are not named explicitly, Clinton leads Trump 51 percent to 40 percent among likely voters, including leaners.


     
    #575     Oct 17, 2016
  6. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark

    New Monmouth poll. Hillary +12




    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/poll-who-is-winning-2016-229886

    Clinton leads Trump by 12 in new national poll

    By Louis Nelson
    10/17/16 01:00 PM EDT

    The most recent struggles of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has ballooned Hillary Clinton’s lead over the GOP nominee to 12 percentage points among likely voters in a new poll, up 8 points from a similar survey conducted just three weeks ago.

    The Monmouth University poll released Monday afternoon puts Clinton ahead of Trump, 50 percent to 38 percent, in a four-way race that also includes Libertarian Gary Johnson and the Green Party’s Jill Stein. The former secretary of state’s lead is up significantly from the 4-point advantage she held in a Monmouth poll last month.


    The intervening three weeks between the Monmouth polls have been nothing short of a disaster for Trump, whose numbers have slid dramatically nationwide and in swing states as his campaign entered its homestretch.
     
    #576     Oct 17, 2016
  7. jem

    jem

    so after wikileaks hillarys supporters are significantly more likely to vote for her?

    here is what that poll says...

    The vote choice among all registered voters is 47% Clinton and 38% Trump. Clinton has a larger
    likely voter lead because only 5% of her potential supporters are considered unlikely to vote while twice
    as many possible Trump voters (10%) are unlikely to cast a ballot next month. This marks a change from
    Monmouth’s prior poll when 10% of registered voters supporting Clinton and 7% of registered voters
    supporting Trump were deemed unlikely to cast ballots.
    --


     
    #577     Oct 17, 2016
  8. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark

    Maybe.After Putin and Assange tried to derail Hillary's campaign it made me want her to win even more.
     
    #578     Oct 17, 2016
    futurecurrents likes this.
  9. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark

    [​IMG]
     
    #579     Oct 17, 2016

  10. Yes these "leaks" mean shit. Do try to keep up.
     
    #580     Oct 17, 2016