The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo

Discussion in 'Politics' started by jem, Jul 27, 2016.

  1. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark

    New Wall Street Journal / NBC News poll .Hillary +7

    http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/poll-clinton-leads-trump-ahead-first-debate-n652141

    Politics
    Sep 21 2016, 4:59 pm ET
    Poll: Clinton Leads Trump Ahead of First Debate

    by Mark Murray



    Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump by six points among likely voters heading into the first presidential debate on Monday, according to a brand-new national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

    The survey - which was conducted after Clinton's return to the campaign trail following her bout with pneumonia - shows a bigger advantage for the secretary of state than did polls taken during the heightened scrutiny of her health.




    Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump by six points among likely voters heading into the first presidential debate on Monday, according to a brand-new national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

    The survey - which was conducted after Clinton's return to the campaign trail following her bout with pneumonia - shows a bigger advantage for the secretary of state than did polls taken during the heightened scrutiny of her health.


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    It also finds that Clinton is running nearly even with Trump when it comes to voter enthusiasm.

    "Despite arguably the worst few weeks of her candidacy, the fundamentals still point toward a Hillary Clinton victory," says Democratic pollster Fred Yang of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies.

    McInturff adds, "Donald Trump has closed the margin since August, but as we head towards the debate, still needs to push this campaign closer. The good news for him is the electorate narrowly agrees with him that America has lost ground and wants to see a change in direction."

    In a four-way horserace, Clinton gets support from 43 percent of likely voters and Trump gets 37 percent, while Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson is at 9 percent and the Green Party's Jill Stein is at 3 percent.


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    In a head-to-head matchup without those third-party candidates, Clinton's advantage expands to seven points, 48 percent to 41 percent. This is the NBC/WSJ poll's first general-election poll of likely voters in the 2016 race.

    Among the broader electorate of all registered voters, Clinton is ahead of Trump by five points in the four-way contest, 42 percent to 37 percent - down from Clinton's nine-point lead in August.

    And in a two-way race, Clinton's edge among registered voters is seven points, 48 percent to 41 percent - also down from nine points in August.

    Here, Clinton has the advantage with African American voters (81 percent to 7 percent), women (51 percent to 37 percent) and those ages 18-34 (50 percent to 34 percent), while Trump is ahead among men (46 percent to 44 percent) and whites (49 percent to 41 percent).

    But the poll reveals a familiar pattern among white registered voters: Those without a college degree break for Trump, 53 percent to 35 percent, while those with college degrees tilt in Clinton's favor, 49 percent to 43 percent.
     
    #361     Sep 21, 2016
  2. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark


    Trumps outreach to black voters isn't working.
     
    #362     Sep 21, 2016
  3. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark

    New Economist/YouGov poll released today has Hillary +2

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    #363     Sep 21, 2016
  4. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark


    Look again.Hillary ahead in 5 of the most recent polls,Trump ahead in 2.


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    #364     Sep 21, 2016
  5. jem

    jem

    the NBC Poll was D 45 R 37
    so they used a plus 8 template.
    but it looked distorted in other ways

    We saw yesterday the economist yougov template is skewed

    and in Rasmuessen has trump up 5
    and the LA times poll has his up a few points as well.
     
    #365     Sep 22, 2016
  6. jem

    jem

    I gave you the facts yesterday and specifically stated I was looking at the 4 way pools. So instead of acting like you are correcting me.
    Say ... something like well today we have new picture because we have new slanted poll from NBC or that you choose to look at 2 ways polls.




     
    Last edited: Sep 22, 2016
    #366     Sep 22, 2016
  7. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark

    In your 2012 thread you used Rasmussen and Gallup to make your case for Romney (the jem honest polls).Of course Rasmussen and Gallup were the worst RCP polls in the 2012 election having Romney ahead more than any other polls.Is Rasmussen and LA times your jem honest polls for 2016?

    After 2012 you should have realized what a garbage polling organization Rasmussen is.LA times is going to take their place as 2016's worst with Rasmussen coming in second.
     
    #367     Sep 22, 2016
  8. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark

    Hillary + 7 again

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/polltracker/clinton-trump-september-mcclatchey-marist

    Clinton Has 7-Point Lead Over Trump In National McClatchy-Marist Poll


    Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by seven points among likely voters in a head-to-head matchup, according to a new McClatchy-Marist poll released Friday morning.

    When third party candidates are added to the question, Clinton leads Trump by six points, 45-39, among likely voters, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 10 points and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at four points.




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    #368     Sep 23, 2016
  9. jem

    jem

    another crap poll with no revelation of its ratio of Dems vs Rs vs Is.
     
    #369     Sep 23, 2016
  10. Is this the most evil woman on earth? Pretty close if not the most. Selling the snake oil salesman.


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    #370     Sep 23, 2016