The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo

Discussion in 'Politics' started by jem, Jul 27, 2016.

  1. Trump Has 5-Point Lead in Bloomberg Poll of Battleground Ohio
    The gap underscores the Democrat’s challenges in critical Rust Belt states after one of the roughest stretches of her campaign.


    September 14, 2016 — 5:00 AM EDTUpdated on September 14, 2016 — 11:56 AM EDT

    Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 5 percentage points in a Bloomberg Politics poll of Ohio, a gap that underscores the Democrat’s challenges in critical Rust Belt states after one of the roughest stretches of her campaign.

    The Republican nominee leads Clinton 48 percent to 43 percent among likely voters in a two-way contest and 44 percent to 39 percent when third-party candidates are included.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-09-14/ohio-poll
     
    #281     Sep 14, 2016
  2. upload_2016-9-14_16-38-22.png
     
    #282     Sep 14, 2016
  3. jem

    jem

    i just tried to algo the quinnipiac 4 way poll which has hillary in the lead by 2.
    they don't give us the break down of r vs d vs I... so its probably garbage.

    Why... because they do show that among independents Trump has a 45% to 35% Johnson gets 20 percent and stein gets 8.

    If they are correct. Its all over for hillary. That number is far too good for Trump to be true.
    It says the only way Hillary can be ahead in polls is if they have really low samples of Independents.
     
    #283     Sep 14, 2016
  4. jem

    jem

    wait it might be true.
    Reuters says of likely Independent voters Trump is up 30% to 22%.

    Amazing... that no one is talking about this.
     
    #284     Sep 14, 2016
  5. jem

    jem

    The Reuters poll has Trump tied.

    Its Democrat 43 Republican 33 Independent 13. (with lean and 36 to 28 without lean)

    Thank you Reuters for not being a crap poll but actually revealing your template. You are skewed but you are not a crap poll like NBC or quinnipiac.

    Trump is there actually up by 6 to 8 points in the Reuters poll when adjusted to a a proper template.
     
    #285     Sep 14, 2016
  6. jem

    jem

    Economist You Gov had poll had Clinton up 2.

    There ration is 42 Dem 33 Rep.
    Meaning Trump is up 5 at least.
     
    #286     Sep 14, 2016
  7. jem

    jem

    it looks like a big swing to Trump since the weekend at Chelseas.
     
    #287     Sep 14, 2016
  8. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark


    So the jem algo has Trump ahead now?
     
    #288     Sep 14, 2016
  9. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark


    Things don't look good for Hillary in Ohio.While Hilary is ahead in most polls Trump is ahead in 3 of the last 5 and Portman is beating Strickland badly in The Senate race.A High turnout for Portman might push Trump over the line..

    Good thing for Hillary she doesn't need Ohio. Obama beat Romney by 126 electoral votes,if Hillary comes anywhere close to matching Obama Ohio's 18 electoral votes means nothing.
     
    #289     Sep 14, 2016
  10. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark

    Hillary + 5


    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/polltracker/clinton-comes-five-points-ahead-q-poll


    Clinton Comes Out Five Points Ahead In Quinnipiac National Poll
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    AP Photo / Andrew Harnik
    ByDanielle Keeton-OlsenPublishedSeptember 14, 2016, 3:15 PM EDT




    Hillary Clinton leads by five points in the latest national poll from Quinnipiac University, but Donald Trump edges closer to her lead when third party candidates are included.

    Clinton leads Trump, 48-43, among likely voters polled throughout the US.
     
    #290     Sep 14, 2016