The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo

Discussion in 'Politics' started by jem, Jul 27, 2016.

  1. fhl

    fhl


    No, when only Trump, Cruz and Kasich were left, IT WAS OVER. These polls are meaningless. It was over then. When Bush and Rubio were contenders, all we heard was that they were favored. Until they lost the Actual Vote.
     
    #241     Sep 12, 2016
  2. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark


    These are the same polls that showed Obama beating McCain,Obama beating Romney,Trump winning the republican nomination and Hillary winning the democratic nomination.
     
    #242     Sep 12, 2016
  3. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark

    Please post some of these polls showing Bush and Rubio were ahead in the polls.




    Dec 2015
    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-do...z-second-hillary-clinton-over-bernie-sanders/

    Poll: Donald Trump back on top, with Ted Cruz climbing into second

    CBS News December 10, 2015, 7:00 AM


    The Republican Race
    Thirty-five percent of Republican primary voters support Trump, up 13 points since October, and his highest level of support in CBS News polling. Ted Cruz (16 percent) has moved into second place, while Ben Carson, who led the October poll, has dropped to third.






    Jan 2016

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/201...z-top-gop-race-few-have-birther-concerns.html


    Fox News Poll
    Fox News Poll: Trump, Cruz top GOP race, few have 'birther' concerns
    [​IMG]
    By Dana Blanton

    Published January 22, 2016
    FoxNews.com
    Facebook Twitter livefyre Email Print


    The Republican presidential nomination race has settled into two distinct tiers.

    Four candidates -- Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and Ben Carson -- command nearly three-quarters of the party’s support. The rest are just trying to break through.

    Here’s how the race stands according to the latest Fox News national poll on the 2016 election:


    Trump receives 34 percent among Republican primary voters, Cruz gets 20 percent, Rubio 11 percent, and Carson 8 percent.


    Two weeks ago, it was Trump 35 percent, Cruz 20 percent, Rubio 13 percent, and Carson 10 percent.






    Feb 16



    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-news-poll-gop-race-trump-remains-on-top-hell-get-things-done/



    CBS News poll: Trump maintains commanding lead over GOP field

    Last Updated Feb 18, 2016 12:48 PM EST

    By Anthony Salvanto, Fred Backus, Jennifer De Pinto, Sarah Dutton

    Donald Trump (35 percent) continues to hold a commanding lead over the rest of the field, with a 17 point lead over his closest rival, Texas Senator Ted Cruz (18 percent). John Kasich (11 percent) has now risen to a virtual third-place tie with Marco Rubio (12 percent). Trump leads among nearly every demographic group.

    More than half of Republican voters say they may still change their minds about who to support, but two thirds of Trump voters say their minds are made up.

    Seven in 10 Republican primary voters want a candidate who will shake up the system, and their top choice for the nomination is Donald Trump. Just one in four want someone who will work within the system.




    March 2016


    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...016/trump_still_holds_15_point_lead_over_cruz

    Trump Still Holds 15-Point Lead Over Cruz


    Friday, March 18, 2016

    Support for all three of the remaining Republican candidates has grown with the narrowing of the field, but Donald Trump still holds a double-digit lead over both his rivals for the GOP presidential nomination.

    The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters finds Trump with 43% support to Senator Ted Cruz’s 28% and Ohio Governor John Kasich’s 21%. Just five percent (5%) of GOP voters like some other candidate, and three percent (3%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
     
    Last edited: Sep 12, 2016
    #243     Sep 12, 2016
  4. fhl

    fhl


    I can't get the picture to show up in an ET post , but go to this page,
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

    and look at the chart showing the realclearpolitics avgs all the way up to the end. It's in chart form and it shows up in the space right below the polling data.

    Now tell me how accurate those rcp avg's were in the 12 cycle. Go ahead and tell me. They consistently showed a big spread between Obama and Romney right up until the last couple of weeks. Always with the big spread favoring Obama.

    "the polls are tightening up"
    That's a phrase we're going to be hearing again in the last couple of weeks of this campaign. Because they can no longer bias their polls for Hillary. They have to try to be more accurate at the end.
     
    #244     Sep 12, 2016
  5. fhl

    fhl



    I didn't say they had Bush and Rubio ahead in the polls. I said the 'odds' favored Bush and Rubio all the way up till they were voted out on their asses. And the odds were based on the polls. The skewed polls.
     
    #245     Sep 12, 2016
  6. fhl

    fhl

    Now that's funny. You use a Rasmussen poll to show that the polling was accurate in the primary. Of course your side dismisses Rasmussen as one of the most inaccurate pollsters whenever we bring them up now. LOL
     
    #246     Sep 12, 2016
  7. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark

    The polls were right.Trump announced in June 2015 and from July 2015 to the end he was ahead in the large majority of polls.

    Below are June-Oct 2015 polls


    [​IMG]
     
    #247     Sep 12, 2016
  8. fhl

    fhl

    Silver says that if the pollster have integrity, they're going to have some outliers because polling is hard. If they have no integrity, they put their 'thumbs on the scale' and herd at the end. That's what Silver says Public Policy Polling is the most guilty at doing.
     
    #248     Sep 12, 2016
  9. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark


    I showed a variety of polls.Since your side loves Rasmussen I included one but Trump was ahead in nearly every poll.
     
    #249     Sep 12, 2016
  10. fhl

    fhl


    The polls are about percentages, not winners. Skewing your polls in favor of or against the winning candidate is no sin in your book.
     
    #250     Sep 12, 2016