The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo

Discussion in 'Politics' started by jem, Jul 27, 2016.

  1. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark


    Rasmussen Reports.Of all the 2008 and 2012 RCP polls guess which one had McCain and Romney ahead of Obama the most? Guess which poll did so bad in 2008 -2014 elections that RCP kicked them out?
     
    #151     Sep 1, 2016
  2. fhl

    fhl

    #152     Sep 1, 2016
  3. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark


    That was mid terms that are much harder to get accurate because of Democrat low voter turnout.


    The Presidential polls are are much more accurate because Democrats get out to vote in much higher numbers and they do so consistently.Presidential polls had Obama + 0.7,he won by +4



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    #153     Sep 1, 2016
  4. fhl

    fhl


    If it's well known that democrats don't get out to vote in the midterms, then why did the pollsters assume a bigger democratic turnout?

    Obama had huge crowds at his rallys, just like Trump. Hillary can't drag anyone to hers. I suppose that makes no difference as to how many turn out to vote.
     
    #154     Sep 1, 2016
  5. jem

    jem

    you keep citing the polls after the (unskewing) or herding effect in the last election.
    The polls have not entered the herding stage.

    wait til a few weeks out... then you can talk about historical accuracy (as if we have a larger enough sample size that it would matter.)


    [​IMG][/QUOTE]


     
    #155     Sep 1, 2016
  6. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark


    Bernie had huge crowds too but Hillary got millions of more votes.Crowds mean absolutely nothing.
     
    #156     Sep 1, 2016
  7. jem

    jem

    you are acting like the polls should not be able to tell that democrat turnout goes down in the midterms.

    that problem is completely eliminated using good templates.
    low democrat turnout can easily be factored into the ratio of D vs R vs I


     
    #157     Sep 1, 2016
  8. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark


    I think its because democrats tell the pollsters they are voting for the democratic candidate but don't go out to vote on election day.
     
    #158     Sep 1, 2016
  9. achilles28

    achilles28


    Your presence is required here:

    https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/nate-silver-election-too-tight-to-call.302471/
     
    #159     Sep 2, 2016
  10. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    Guess Democrats are too busy smoking dope and sitting at home on public benefits to make it over to the polling station, eh?
     
    #160     Sep 2, 2016