The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo

Discussion in 'Politics' started by jem, Jul 27, 2016.

  1. jem

    jem

    regarding my claim above about the algo being right... this was how nate silver described the effect I anticipated back then with the algo...
    he called it herding. I anticipated it and predicted they would become honest adn unskew in front of the election.

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...and-worst-in-the-2012-presidential-race/?_r=0

    Our method of evaluating pollsters has typically involved looking at all the polls that a firm conducted over the final three weeks of the campaign, rather than its very last poll alone. The reason for this is that some polling firms may engage in “herding” toward the end of the campaign, changing their methods and assumptions such that their results are more in line with those of other polling firms.

    There were roughly two dozen polling firms that issued at least five surveys in the final three weeks of the campaign, counting both state and national polls. (Multiple instances of a tracking poll are counted as separate surveys in my analysis, and only likely voter polls are used.)


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    #111     Aug 30, 2016
  2. achilles28

    achilles28

    image.png
     
    #112     Aug 30, 2016
  3. jem

    jem

    #113     Aug 30, 2016
  4. jem

    jem

    between real clear politics not showing some polls and these polls being purchased by hillary's campaign...

    there is no integrity in public sphere anymore. Its all partisan bullshit. from agw nutters to crooked polls.

    but at least wolf blitzer said he did not hear the pop.
     
    #114     Aug 30, 2016
    achilles28 likes this.
  5. achilles28

    achilles28

    Not sure. Haven't been able to confirm. I will check the wikileaks Twitter feed later for confirmation. Donald trump jr posted
     
    #115     Aug 30, 2016
  6. RRY16

    RRY16

    Who do you 2(Jem& Achilles)work for? Or are you the same person? It makes no sense for you 2 to be on here this much and not be getting paid...If your not getting paid or have some type of arrangement or future business you are really fucking nut jobs.
     
    #116     Aug 30, 2016
  7. jem

    jem

    how much time do you think I put on here today.
    I can tell you that I had a good day productivity wise.
    I took in some new business that should result in a good months or 2 worth of pay.


    I probably spent 30 minutes posting here as I was checking drudge, breitbart and real estate news. how much time did you spend here.
     
    #117     Aug 30, 2016
  8. RRY16

    RRY16

    Thanks, you answered my question.
     
    #118     Aug 30, 2016
  9. achilles28

    achilles28

    I spend about 30 mins to an hour here depending. I trade from home and come here to grind my political axe. I spend a few hours following political and world events daily, regardless if I post here or not.

    You may want to ask future currents and thunder boy the same questions
     
    #119     Aug 30, 2016
  10. RRY16

    RRY16

    Thanks, you answered my question..your way to wacked out to be a successful trader...best of luck on your endeavors.
     
    #120     Aug 30, 2016