The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo

Discussion in 'Politics' started by jem, Jul 27, 2016.

  1. jem


    At the moment Trump is winning... in the most recent national poll he is up 7.


    (Click to Sort)
    Poll Results Spread
    General Election: Trump vs. Clinton LA Times/USC Trump 47, Clinton 40 Trump +7
    Missouri: Trump vs. Clinton KSDK-TV/SurveyUSA* Trump 47, Clinton 37 Trump +10
    Kansas: Trump vs. Clinton Fort Hays St. University* Trump 44, Clinton 27 Trump +17

    Monday, July 25
    Race/Topic (Click to Sort)
    Poll Results Spread
    General Election: Trump vs. Clinton CNN/ORC Trump 48, Clinton 45 Trump +3
    General Election: Trump vs. Clinton CBS News Trump 44, Clinton 43 Trump +1
    General Election: Trump vs. Clinton Economist/YouGov Trump 42, Clinton 47 Clinton +5
    General Election: Trump vs. Clinton NBC News/SM Trump 45, Clinton 46 Clinton +1
    General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein CNN/ORC Clinton 39, Trump 44, Johnson 9, Stein 3 Trump +5
    General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Economist/YouGov Clinton 40, Trump 38, Johnson 5, Stein 3 Clinton +2
    General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein NBC News/SM Clinton 39, Trump 41, Johnson 10, Stein 5 Trump +2
    General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson CBS News Trump 40, Clinton 39, Johnson 12 Trump +1
    Nevada: Trump vs. Clinton KTNV/Rasmussen* Trump 43, Clinton 38 Trump +5
    Ohio: Trump vs. Clinton PPP (D) Clinton 45, Trump 45 Tie
    Ohio: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein PPP (D) Clinton 39, Trump 42, Johnson 6, Stein 2 Trump +3
    Georgia: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein WSB-TV/Landmark Trump 46, Clinton 44, Johnson 5, Stein 3 Trump +2

    Last edited: Jul 27, 2016
  2. jem


    4 things to remember -

    - Polls this time of year in the past frequently underweighted independents and overweighted Democrats. As we got closer to election day they poll started using more independents and switched to those likely to vote. Which mean a richer republican and independent sample. So far Trump is winning with independents.

    - I heard a pollster say that Trump does better in online polls because people are less likely to admit they are going to vote for him to a person.

    - at the moment in these polls fewer people think Trump will win then state they will vote for him. When these polls become known and people see him leading they may jump on the Trump bandwagon.

    - Its still just convention time and things can change.
  3. Ricter


    Hello Russia, are you listening? We need your help getting Drumpf elected. Do you have the emails?

    No, not the 22 million from Bush II, the other ones, thanks.
    piezoe likes this.
  4. a little early, wait for the post convention bump. Hillary now has the full support of the media. They don't even know they are biased. They just assume EVERYBODY wants the government to do more good things. Their only knowledge of the economy is that is where money comes from and republicans are always complaining about it. Today Hillary is being celebrated for her historical acheivment of being nominated while being a woman. Trumps historical day is he is the first nominee to encourage another country to engage in espionage. Brought to you by the same CNBC character who asked Trump if he was a cartoon character. Once again they are driving us all underground to the Right Wing hypocrisy experts. You can kiss anything even remotely honest goodbye until after the election.
  5. [​IMG]

    Trump calling Russia for help?!?!!
  6. jem


    Whether the media admits it or not... Trump is in a commanding lead at the moment because Hillary just alienated a large portion of the active base. Just think of how many Nitro's there out there... educated but willing to turn off their logic to vote democrat for some reason. Now they are too jaded to enjoy turning off their brains. Some of them will still vote democrat... but some. maybe millions, will not forget how they screwed Bernie. they will stay home or vote for someone else. There will be even more independents going forward.

    any convention bump she gets will be manufactured with skewed polls.

  7. Ricter


    So you've got your bases covered now, whichever way it goes. Drumpf stays ahead, it's because... Sanders. Drumpf falls behind, it's because... skewing.
    Frederick Foresight likes this.
  8. jem


    according to 538 the USC poll that has Trump up by 7 does not need to change. Nate Silver and his analysis tends to be pro democrat. So the likely situation is that Trump is up by 7 or more.

    We will have to see the polls after the convention. If the polls show their sample of dems vs reps vs independents... we can just translate it to a previous election template. Then we will know what is happening now. and we can then argue about which election template is most useful for 2016.
  9. Arnie


    Well now. At least Trump got the Hillary campaign to admit that HER email scandal is a national security issue.

    Next few months are going to be really hard on you Ricter. It's already starting to show.
    Take a break, go outside and shovel some snow. :)
    jem likes this.
  10. Ricter


    By asking for Russian help to win the election, a Pyrrhic victory.
    #10     Jul 27, 2016