the politically incorrect truth why TA can't work (for you)

No incongruity.
I would never invest in such a system. I just want to witness a TA system that has such wonderful claims actually work ( as I surmise its all smoke and mirrors) surf

 

I'm sure that's what you meant. Obviously you'd need to discuss his work with your "quants in tow" if all you were interested in was "witnessing". LOL

Surf, you've been busted buddy. Just fess up.

 

couple of interesting sites:

http://observationsandnotes.blogspot.com/2009/03/average-annual-stock-market-return.html

http://www.moneychimp.com/


"Adherents of geometric Brownian motion or log normally distributed stock returns (one of the foundation blocks of modern finance) must ever after face a disturbing fact: assuming the hypothesis that stock index returns are log normally distributed with about a 20% annualized volatility, the probability that the stock market could fall 29% (the decline in S&P futures on October 19th, 1987) in a single day is 10-160. So improbable is such an event that it would not be anticipated to occur even if the stock market were to last for 20 billion years, the upper end of the currently estimated duration of the universe. Indeed, such an event should not occur even if the stock market were to enjoy a rebirth for 20 billion years in each of 20 billion big bangs."

 

Why would someone put so much effort into trying to convince others that TA can't work?

 

If t/a was reliable ,why would you get random distribution of profits and losses?

There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge. In other words, based on the past performance of your edge, you may know that out of the next 20 trades, 12 will be winners and 8 will be losers. What you don’t know is the sequence of wins and losses or how much money the market is going to make available on the winning trades. This truth makes trading a probability or numbers game. When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like ‘right’ and ‘wrong’ or ‘win’ and ‘lose’ no longer have the same significance. As a result, your expectations will be in harmony with the possibilities. - Mark Douglas: ‘Trading in the Zone’

 

Gotta love mods from this sinking ship removing posts that have to do with another trading board, all the while standing by as good threads get destroyed by trolls. Amazing

 

Isn't the first time... and FYI: don't disparage the site, banning offense...

The ratio of trolls to serious traders is just too great here, unfortunately it is "Traffic over Content...

Fortunately I read about it prior to deletion, it is pleasant and non-confrontational...

Time to migrate myself, going to miss reading a few people, but not the trolls...

 

I was thinking the exact same thing.

 

Actually, it goes both ways. I don`t understand why the proponents of TA bother spending so much time replying to trolls and non-believers.

 

You have to ask why so many deluded people try to convince others that t/a works , what is the hidden agenda?