I used to think the way that you do Now I believe that you could give the holy grail to 1,000 people and 98% of them will still lose money in the markets. A successful trade starts in the mind and is tempered by ones own experience. If you can not think for your self then you cannot make anything work for you. There is all this talk about whether one should use trend line breaks, head & shoulders/candle patterns, breakouts, etc when no matter what you are looking at you are all doing the same thing as everyone else. Price is moving up and you buy Price is moving down and you sell You might buy/sell a retracement, but all of you (?) set a stop and try to achieve multiples if your risk as a reward. The real question is how far price has to move up before price is said to be going up (one tick/20 ticks/ is it based on average movement over the considered time period or simply a breakout?) If buying on a retracement, what is the maximum correction before the chart is making a real move in the opposite direction as your analysis? What is a real move? What is a correction? What is your plan? How many losses can you take while sustaining your original position size? All of these things are far more important than candle patterns. The difference between you and the other traders is psychology NOT system.
More like he is a snake oil salesman profiting from poor newbies. I'm willing to bet the guy is a net $ loser in trading. I dont expect you agree with that since you are also in the sales and marketing business And I wouldn't trust any 'trader' that gives seminars travelling around the world, if a guy is willing to be away from the family for so long there is something wrong with him and I bet its his trading results
Daal, First of all, I don't like to resort to personal attacks as part of my debates with someone. I apologize for anything I've said to you that you took as a personal attack (e.g. you're smoking crack commentary in my prior message). With that said, although I've met him, I do not personally know Mr. Nison nor do I know anything about his family nor anything about his relationship with his family. Therefore, please respond to the following questions. * Do you know something about his family relationship that you think is important to this conversation in this thread. * Why do you consistently try to put words in my mouth or try to tell others what they will say in response to anything you say via the I dont expect you agree type of statements when in fact I've agreed with many things you've said along with openly stating such. * Do you know there are thousands of professions that employ sales folks, marketing experts, promoters, agents along with many of these individuals traveling often. I once read in Times magazine a long time ago that the average world leader spends 1/2 the amount of time with their families in comparison to the amount of time spent with their families prior to taking the world leader position. Are these bad people to you or anyone else (athletes, celebritries, contract workers et cetera) considering you're documented in this thread via saying you don't trust someone that's willing to spend time away from their families. * Think about all a few of those book authors you've quoted in your thread that teaches at universities, traveling giving speeches, writing online articles, publishing their opinions...do you feel the same way about them as a family person via the same way you try to imply about Mr. Nison. * You have openly stated in another thread about specific trade positions you have taken...can you post any proof that such actually occurred. Don't use the excuse I'm not selling anything when in fact you are (see below commentary). * Are you a profitable or losing trader ??? ----------------------- With that said, here's a few things about me that you need to know prior to making any further assumptions about me. I make my living via trading. It's in my blood considering I'm from a family of traders and relatives that work at the exchanges (old man was a floor trader, aunt that works on the computers at the CBOT, 1st cousin that's an institutional trader and several close personal friends that are very successful institutional traders). From a young age I've been taught to always have a plan B just in case plan A doesn't work. My plan B is my darkroom photography lab and it's a very successful business and I have two employees I pay very well. In addition, I own a small trading website that makes just enough money to pay for the time & energy I put into maintaining it. My spouse calls it vacation money. Therefore, yes, you're absolutely correct in that I'm in the sales marketing business in my ways besides trading. However, I do not spam ET nor do I post any information at ET that provides clues about my primary trading methodology beyond generalities nor do I go into any details about my darkroom photography business here or at other forums related to photography. In contrast to a few you sometimes have agreements with...they are vendors and they do spam ET. Yet, I've not once seen you point the finger at them via the snake oil salesman commentary. Also, just in case you've forgotten from a discussion a long time ago...Japanese Candlesticks is not my primary method nor do I use it alone the few times I do use it. However, I am successful with it only because I understand it's flaws and strengths. Further, the next time you tell someone (please review your own messages in other threads) you've read a good book about trading, investing, global economies or whatever...just be wise and realize you've just purchase from a vendor...someone that sold to you. Simply, stop with the he's in sales crap because you've purchase stuff from those you believe in and will not purchase from those you do not believe in regardless if its trading related, clothing, school education or the new high definition TV and so on about anything you've purchase with a nice sum of money. In fact, you're into sales too via openly stating several times you know what you're talking about along with replying to others in an effort to correct something they've said when it comes to the global economies and policies that could/will have impact on the markets. Simply, you're trying to sale that fact but just not for financial compensation. Once again, I sincerely apologize for any prior personal attacks aimed at you and hopefully you don't see anything I've said in this message post as a personal attack. P.S. If you choose not to respond to my specific outlined questions...I'll leave this thread alone and you can have at it with others. Mark
Dude, its a matter of bayes theorem. If somebody stole your wallet in your home and there was someone who was arrested in the past recently in your house, the odds that the guy did it are high, perhaps overwhelmingly high in comparison with the other possilities(your wife did it, you kids did it) Nison claims he can make money trading looking at candles as far as I know that is supposed to work in all markets. This means he should be a very rich man, yet he travels around the world giving speeches(being away from whoever he considers family), tries to sell DVDs/books. Yes in theory he could be a great trader but its not likely, its called the coincidence principle, an application of the bayes theorem. If it looks like bs it probably is(the alternative theory is that he is an awesome trader, which are very rare so its more likely he is an snake oil salesman). Matter of fact this was the same principle the guy who found out Madoff was a fraud used when he reported him to the SEC many years before he was discovered. Anytime someone claims to be a great trader its more likely he is lucky or a liar than he is in fact a great trader No. If you read the OP in the journal I said I created that to discuss short selling ideas, but as the time went on I started to discuss just about any type of global macro idea. I didnt create the journal with the intention of selling anything but to help myself in understanding my own trades and hearing criticism Since I started trading(early 2007) I have beat the HFRI benchmark. I have no proof and if you dont believe me I'm completly fine with it. If I start to request funds to run a hedge fund or try to sell a newsletter you can ask me for lots of evidence that again ----------------------- dude, this is a discussion forum, so everyone is a salesman when they freely express their opinions and discuss?I missed the part of the T&C that said you need audited statements and university degrees when posting on ET
You've only been trading since 2007? Oh yeah, you are DEFINITELY an expert capable of making definitive statements on what is or isn't possible. LOL!!
Well one thing has been made self evident--this nihabi ashi person is VERBOSE and should be a FICTION writer if he isnt already! Man, how many words does it take to say something simple? Furthermore, he is named after a CANDLESTICK term, yet tries via excess verbiage to distance himself--- Is this guy really Nison? The guy is clearly out of his ballgame arguing with DAAL and others. Mr. Candlestick, you have lost!
Daal, Thanks for responding to some of my questions. I don't get the stolen money from your wallet analogy unless you're implying you specifically felt ripped off or taken advantage of when you purchased something from Steve Nison. If so, that sucks and stop feeling bad nor take it personally...books are cheap or you can get them for free from any local library in North America. Here's what I've heard about Steve Nison but don't know for fact. He does trade but very little and is profitable. He openly admits he makes his living from sales, speeches and marketing of Japanese Candlesticks. He does not exclusively use Japanese Candlesticks alone. I've heard he uses seasonalities and historical patterns but have never seen any written statements by him about such. Maybe because he couldn't market that stuff (seriously). In addition, I've never heard him say nor read that he saids he's a GREAT TRADER. In fact, you are the first to imply to me that he has said such. In contrast, I have seen several interviews where Madoff specifically stated he is profitable and beating the market averages which we would later discover was a big lie (trades did not occur) and it was a ponzi scheme. Therefore, I'm unable to imply any similarities betweent Nison and Madoff because that gets into the comparing of apples to oranges...they do not have any commonalities. Hmmm...that's not what I said nor imply. However, I do think you get my point about telling others you know what you're talking about, trust me and the attempts to correct the opinions of others as in trying to change their opinions. Simply, there's no way you can sale to me the belief that Japanese Candlesticks can't be used profitably when not used as the primary trade method alone when more important things have impact on trading results (money management, market experience, discipline, trade management, global economic events or policies and all the other stuff that TraderZones use to call voodoo and now mysteriously agrees they are important after many years of debates). It's just a piece of the puzzle for some profitable traders...nothing more. Just the same, I cannot sale to you the belief that Japanese Candlesticks will work for you nor am I trying to do such. They don't work for you and I believe you. Yet, you believe others are lying when they say it works for them. Thus, you keep using what works for you and I'll keep using what works for me. Let the losing traders debate about what doesn't work because profitable traders eventually grows tired of hearing another profitable trader saying what doesn't work (human nature). P.S. Thread has run it's course for me. Once again, thanks for responding to some of my questions and more trading success to you. Bye. Mark Nihaba Ashi (martial arts and Japanese Candlestick term) +20 Years of Market Experience
Proven again. The guy doesn't even get a simple analogy. Its not even entertaining any longer. EITHER IT WORKS OR IT DOES NOT WORK. THERE IS NO MIDDLE GROUND!! IF IT WORKED IT COULD BE PROGRAMED-- IT CAN NOT BE PROGRAMED AND AUTOMATED__THEREFORE IT DOES NOT WORK. CAPICE'?
There are commonalities. Lets say you meet someone who says he is a .310 hitter in baseball. You say 'ok lets play sometime and you can show me your skills' and he says 'you know what, my arm is kind hurting lately, maybe when I fix it'. What do you think its more likely, he is good at baseball or he is a liar?(or perhaps delusional) Nison claims to have a significant edge, while failing to take advantage of it, which could make him millions and maybe even billions, yet makes a living off seminars and courses Remove the trust me part, I use this forum for debate. I provide arguments to back my opinions(like the Practical Speculation book that debunks some Candle stuff) and if you disagree and show me why I will be glad to be proven wrong