PF=1.47 WR= 70.97% 29 days of live trading (18 of those days there was not any trading) added $293.04 to the initial opening balance of $8,811.56. 69% of the trades are under 10 hrs. long and there is an average of about four or five trades per trading day. This system requires 24 hour monitoring from Sunday afternoon to Friday afternoon with a minimum of two traders. There are occasional hedged carries over the weekend to goose positive interest earning during dead times. I just made another small adjustment that should increase the PF and shorten the duration. The Winrate will continue to drop. Could you imagine a PF of 2 or more with a winrate in the high 50's or low 60's, while cutting duration in half, without overtrading and wasting spread? http://www.electricsavant.com/Spreader Live Results.xls Michael B.
I must be real careful because there are many things in play when "cornering" the trade. Too big of adjustments, especially on a one-sided approach can be devastating. Keep things loose folks. When you are trading and improving you must not over optimize and look at levels as zones. When you make changes you must track the reaction...this is where your information is. You know you have a good system when you can purposely make errors and try to trip it up with random entries and it still works. Your trade durations are effected when you tinker like this, which is an indication that your system works. Its all about trade duration when you have an edge. During the Cash & Carry days in the carry trade, I learned much about correlations and am using that knowledge now. I would like to thank the many readers that have been reading and mentoring me. You know who you are, and it has not gone by being unappreciated. Michael B.
I have learned something about discretionary trading with short term trades. A part of the decision to hold them for their pre-planned TP has two ingredients that should affect your decision Where will I put the money form the exit...is there a better acceleration presenting itself now that would permit me to better my hold? Am I seeing "more than normal acceleration" and should I just take it to capitalize on the shorter duration and just ignore the preplanned TP, as long as I have a another set up to get into? After learning this above, it has taught me how to always be in a trade 24 hrs a day. There is a constant balancing and velocity that must be maintained when you have an edge. Your system is just a guideline, not engraved in stone. In the beginning your system for emotional reasons should be followed exactly, but when you become more experienced you learn the correct questions to ask yourself as to the "WHY" you are making a trade. Slowly but surely I am getting to be a master trader..a few more decades of this and I should be near there. Michael B.
In other words take the quick pops...or if you have been in a trade a long time and you can get a TP early to get into something faster...then do it.. EVERY TIME YOU HIT THAT EXIT BUTTON YOU SHOULD ASK YOURSELF THOSE TWO QUESTIONS IN THE ABOVE POST BEFORE YOU HIT IT. Remember your allowed to get flat also, we will discuss those times later. There is a master at this...if you can understand his posts (print them out) take a look at Jack Hershey (AKA Grob). Michael B.
Map out your scenarios. Be ready for them. I park trade ticket scenarios that never transform. I am opening and closing tickets more than I actually execute...Fortunatley I have a lot of monitors and screen real estate as these baskets can be built with mutiple trade ticket scenario's. You got to be ready and anticipate.... to beat them at their own game...I DO NOT USE LIMIT ORDERS. I USE MARKET ORDERS AND MY SPREADSHEET SETS THEM UP LOOSE FOR SLIPPAGE. I ONLY HAVE 2 SECONDS. I suppose if I had DOM and Volume...I could imagine that I could be deadly. MAP OUT YOUR "WHAT-IF"S" Good Trading to all of you...and I hope to get some dialogue going here on this velocity subject, if anybody is reading this thread. Don't be shy...jump in...its warm..AND DO NOT GET LAZY IN YOUR TRADING TRADING THE HARD WAY ElectricSavant
If you can imagine how busy it gets in our trading room (the two of us, Wifey and I)...and the work that goes into this then you might understand that nobody could trade our system. It is far to laborious and the hard way...and just forget automation...too funny..we are much faster than automation. Wifey has come a long way and her input into the "discretion" has also taught me a few things too. Her trading disipline is unmatched by anyone here I would also venture to say. There are many better ways to trade...but this is our way. I give new meaning to "Keep it Simple" ElectricSavant