The Perennial Predilection for Prediction

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by hcour, Oct 10, 2005.

  1. hcour

    hcour Guest

    There was a recent thread about prediction. If one agrees w/those of us who agree that the argument over prediction is mostly semantics, that the very act of taking a position must inherently and inevitably have some kind of bias toward one direction or the other, and that traders fully recognize and accept this w/o ego and that they may indeed be wrong in that prognostication - hence stops, risk/reward, money-management, active trade management - then the real issue is the character of the prediction.

    On ET we have the extremes of the extreme: On one end we have something like the "The S&P Has Topped Last Week" thread, in which the OP gave no reasoning or chart analysis, no methodolgy, beyond simple support/resistance broken or not, if even that much. (Sorry, couldn't follow the thread, boring, and now I think they're arguing about suing each other because they've been insulted. Ah, the internet. On the plus side the OP did include a poll giving one choice that he is an idiot, whether he happens to be correct or not in this particular instance. Apparently he was aware that just as many people would be disgusted w/him no matter the outcome.) The point is, it really means nothing, right or wrong, because we don't know why this trader, who may or may not be successful, made this "prediction". How is this any different than your dime-a-dozen internet newsletter? Because he made it on ET? If he's right, what have we learned? That he's a good trader? If wrong, that he sucks? This means, what, to me? Nothing.

    On the other end of the spectrum, another thread was started about EW, one of the most reviled TA concepts known to man, and one which qualifies for a lynching w/o a trial here on ET. Now I'm not especially interested in EW, that's not my point. This OP posted links to detailed charts, over time, consistent w/his methodology, and gave cogent, specific replies to queries. Perhaps those who were interested in EW could garner something from his analyses, even if that something turned out to be that it was only so much hoo-ha. Whatever. At least the OP gave them something to work with, something they could take away from the thread.

    Which thread took more balls?

    Beyond mere chit-chat, blah-blah, what is the point of saying X market is going to rally X points if you don't explain to us how you came to that conclusion? Where's the chart? Where's the analysis? What's the reasoning to support your supposition? Otherwise, it doesn't really mean anything, because the readers can't take anything substantive from it. It's just internet masturbation, and the rest of us are left feeling quite unsatisfied.