The peak is going to be an extended plateau

ElCubano · Apr 23, 2020

Florida seems to be doing better in deaths than those states with around the same total cases.

Pekelo · Apr 23, 2020

ElCubano said:
Florida seems to be doing better in deaths than those states with around the same total cases.
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Yeah, that is surprising. My theory is the lack of subways and the abundance of sunshine>>vitamin D>>better immune system

Pekelo · Apr 23, 2020

2351 Thursday

1957may10 · Apr 23, 2020

Pekelo said:
Most people on TV expect this to be a quick peak and death rate dropping down fast after that. It may very well be the case, specially for smaller countries.

But for the US, I expect this "peak" to be at least a 2-3 weeks plateau, where the daily death rate will stay in the 1800-2200 range. Why? Because this is a big country and it didn't lock down all at once. So NY state could be already on the downward slope, but Florida and Georgia numbers are still increasing. In short, consecutive peaks.

Then the question remains, at what daily death rate would the country consider safe to reopen for business? 1000 doesn't sound so bad if the ATH was let's say 2200. Or should we wait until we drop below 500? That might be still another 6 weeks away.

My guess is that it is going to be state by state, just like the lock down was. Some not so badly hit and already peaked states will loosen the rules, others will take 2-3 weeks longer.

And 3 weeks after the reopening, the numbers will go up again, although hopefully much slower...
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In three weeks from now we will have 25% unemployed. This is as worst as 1932 year of depression. We need to start opening states from May 1st.
Georgia, Texas, and Utah stated they will open soon.
PA will partly open. They will open county by county.
Since we open we should move forward, otherwise will be a big impact.

1957may10 · Apr 23, 2020

dozu888 said:
I am a big Trump supporter but am disappointed at his actions on Corona... how come Fauci is running the show now, just a medicine man, not an elected official... shouldn't be making economic decisions.
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1957may10 said:
In three weeks from now we will have 25% unemployed. This is as worst as 1932 year of depression. We need to start opening states from May 1st.
Georgia, Texas, and Utah stated they will open soon.
PA will partly open. They will open county by county.
Since we open we should move forward, otherwise will be a big impact.
More...

1957may10 said:
In three weeks from now we will have 25% unemployed. This is as worst as 1932 year of depression. We need to start opening states from May 1st.
Georgia, Texas, and Utah stated they will open soon.
PA will partly open. They will open county by county.
Since we open we should move forward, otherwise will be a big impact.
More...

1957may10 said:
In three weeks from now we will have 25% unemployed. This is as worst as 1932 year of depression. We need to start opening states from May 1st.
Georgia, Texas, and Utah stated they will open soon.
PA will partly open. They will open county by county.
Since we open we should move forward, otherwise will be a big impact.
More...

Because it

dozu888 said:
I am a big Trump supporter but am disappointed at his actions on Corona... how come Fauci is running the show now, just a medicine man, not an elected official... shouldn't be making economic decisions.
More...

Because it pandemic, health related crisis lol.

1957may10 · Apr 23, 2020

Turveyd said:
We infected all of our leaders in the UK already, nearly worked with the 1, but sadly they all made it

Seems it's not the Plague, who knew
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What did you do, son?

1957may10 · Apr 23, 2020

Pekelo said:
Another record, 2482.
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Death toll has a log vs covig19 daily increase. But tonight is 34.7k+ second from the top. Not good.

1957may10 · Apr 23, 2020

Pekelo said:
OK, then. Nobody has died around me, therefore there is no pandemic. Anecdote =/= data

On the other hand I am not sure if it is due to the usual lower reporting over the weekend but today's number was 1867. My state's death rate has been increasing by quite a lot in the last 3 days.
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I’m in NJ and I know people who die. One was 30 y.o. No preconditions.

1957may10 · Apr 23, 2020

Pekelo said:
2341 Wendesday. Today we will hit 50K dead.

60K by end of month, 100K by end of May.
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Yes it is about right numbers you provided.

Cuddles · Apr 24, 2020

if we're as bad as Italy (and we likely are) this is a 2 month deal from the peak. This is probably why Ill Gov. extended this until June & why Donnie is talking about extending it further.

Italy: