The peak is going to be an extended plateau

Discussion in 'Economics' started by Pekelo, Apr 13, 2020.

  1. Atikon

    Atikon

    You just know that there is some PR Strategist of Breitbart sitting in the White House right now contemplating how to infect Fauci with COVIT19. *lays down Tinfoil hat*
     
    #11     Apr 13, 2020
    dozu888 likes this.
  2. Turveyd

    Turveyd

    We infected all of our leaders in the UK already, nearly worked with the 1, but sadly they all made it :(

    Seems it's not the Plague, who knew :(
     
    #12     Apr 13, 2020
    dozu888 likes this.
  3. Cuddles

    Cuddles

    I suspected it would be a pleateau, but it won't be the case. One need only look at the current country & NY numbers, as well as the warmer weather north hemisphere countries. We could reopen the country and guarantee a flat top however
     
    #13     Apr 13, 2020
    dozu888 likes this.
  4. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    If the DDR (daily death rate) stays around or above 1500 for 2 weeks, would you call it a plateau? And also the downward slope may be slow, let's say dropping only by 100 per day.
     
    #14     Apr 13, 2020
  5. Cuddles

    Cuddles

    I consider a pleateau peak+/-250. If it's continuously dropping, I don't necessarily consider it a flat slope
     
    #15     Apr 13, 2020
  6. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    is called a plateau :)

    But anyhow, we will check back after today's numbers. I expect 1800+
     
    #16     Apr 13, 2020
  7. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    Well, yesterday's number was about 1535, or was it??? (on Worldometer) But this morning Coumo said a number that was at least a hundred bigger for NY state. Then later on they added 3700 to the NY state total death count, because people dying home and shit. They also undercount during weekends.

    Long story short, today's US number is 2331 and I usually try to check it around 9 pm. The point is, the plateau is going to be around 2000 and not 1500 as it was implied by the last few days...
     
    #17     Apr 14, 2020
  8. Cuddles

    Cuddles

    there's a story to that; not that I necessarily disagree, but the growth was a correction on the count "model":
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/us/coronavirus-updates.html
    New York City, already an epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, sharply increased its death toll by more than 3,700 on Tuesday, after officials said they were now including people who had never tested positive for the virus but were presumed to have died because of it.
     
    #18     Apr 14, 2020
  9. zghorner

    zghorner

    Trump confirmed your suspicion in tonight's press conference that they will lift lock-down state x state.
     
    #19     Apr 14, 2020
  10. Noone123

    Noone123

    Probably need to monitor the first state that we lift lockdown for 2nd wave of infection to model how long this will take for us to go back to normal.
     
    #20     Apr 14, 2020