The Path to Recovery: How to Re-Open America

TreeFrogTrader · Feb 9, 2021

gwb-trading said:
In my opinion... the months of March to May of this year will be a COVID "twilight zone" with a lot of uncertainty. The vaccination level will not be at a high enough level during this time to really have an impact on slowing (note: not stopping) the spread of COVID. The new variants which are more contagious will become more commonplace. All of this leaves the U.S. in a state of precariousness where people can see the finish line but COVID spread is still high -- with large scale hospitalizations and deaths continuing. This, of course, brings up the re-open conversation -- when is it safe to open schools, or to open businesses? What are the necessary guidelines to make openings safe? All of these questions will continued to be debated by politicians --- as a renewed vaccination & public health drive attempts to reduce the spread of COVID. It all comes out to a question of the level of acceptable risk versus the toll for bad decisions.

Don't get cocky with these Covid-19 numbers. With new variants, easing restrictions now would be 'incredibly risky'
https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/09/health/us-coronavirus-tuesday/

Covid-19 numbers are getting better. But letting your guard down could be an open invitation for highly contagious variants to trample the US -- erasing the progress made.

"We're ... seeing what happens in other countries when these variants take over," emergency physician Dr. Leana Wen said. "There is (an) explosive surge, even when the countries are basically in shutdown."

The warning comes as more Americans believe there's no big risk in returning to pre-Covid life, according to a new poll.

An Axios-Ipsos poll published Tuesday showed 66% of those surveyed said they thought the risk of returning to pre-Covid life was moderate or large. That's the lowest percentage since October.

The groups least likely to see Covid-19 as a risk were people ages 18 to 29 (58%) and Republicans (49%).
But a majority of those vaccinated -- 76% -- still see coronavirus as a high risk.

Americans shouldn't assume the vaccine rollout means it's OK to get lax with safety measures. In fact, ditching precautions now would be "incredibly risky," said Dr. Richard Besser, former acting director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

"It is absolutely essential that we continue to do steps beyond vaccination to keep this under control," Besser said.

"The reason for that is that the more this virus is allowed to spread in our communities, the more we're going to see these variants spreading," he said.

"And if the vaccines aren't as effective against some of these variants, then we could see the gains that we're so excited about right now, we could see those reversed in a very short amount of time."

What the gains look like right now
-- The US has averaged 110,854 new Covid-19 cases each day over the past week, according to Johns Hopkins University.

That's down 24% compared to the previous week. (But testing has dropped by 12.3% over the same time period, according to the COVID Tracking Project.)

-- Covid-19 hospitalizations have decreased 12.53% this past week, compared to the previous week, according to the project.

-- The national test positivity rate -- or the percentage of tests taken that turn out to be positive -- now averages 6.93%, according to the COVID Tracking Project.

That number has steadily declined since the record high of 13.55% on January 8. But the World Health Organization has recommended governments not reopen until the test positivity rate is 5% or lower for at least two weeks.

Despite warnings, some states are easing up
Scientists are worried about several troubling strains of coronavirus that are now in the US.
They include the B.1.1.7 variant, first detected in the UK, which is highly contagious and spreading rapidly in the US; and the B.1.351 strain, first discovered in South Africa, which might partly escape the effects of vaccines.

The US faces "something really potentially catastrophic, and we should be doubling down on the measures that we know to work," said Wen, a visiting professor at George Washington University's Milken Institute School of Public Health.

Despite similar comments from other health experts, some states are letting go of certain safety precautions:
-- North Dakota's statewide mask mandate recently expired. Gov. Doug Burgum said last week he was not concerned Covid-19 numbers would go up.

-- Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds recently signed an executive order ending all mask requirements, gathering restrictions and other public health emergency mandates, while encouraging residents to follow recommended safety guidelines.

-- New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said New York City indoor dining can reopen at 25% capacity starting Friday. But the state could tighten restrictions again if needed.

"As we move forward, we're continuing to respond to the facts and data every day," Cuomo said, "and when the enemy changes tactics, we change with the enemy."

Where we are with vaccines
More than 32.3 million Americans have received at least their one dose of their two-dose Covid-19 vaccines, according to CDC data.

More than 9.5 million people have been fully inoculated with both doses. That's less than 3% of the US population.

Local and state officials say they're facing challenges such as supply and trying to ensure fair access.
Starting Tuesday, Los Angeles County will only offer appointments for second doses of the vaccine to "ensure that we have enough doses to guarantee a second dose for people who already received the first one," county Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer said Monday.

That plan will stay in place for the rest of this weeks.

"Scheduling an appointment right now is challenging because of the limited supply of vaccines that the county is receiving on a weekly basis," county health officials said Monday.

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear said the state will produce demographic data every week to track where vaccine doses go, so that they will be "held accountable" for equitable access.

"Black and African American Kentuckians, to date, have received about 4.3% of vaccinations where we know the person's race. That is unacceptable," Beshear said Monday.

"About 1.1% of vaccines, where ethnicity is known, have gone to our Hispanic population -- also too low."

Study: Transmission is low in day care centers that take precautions
The first multicenter study to investigate the spread of coronavirus in day care centers suggests preschool-age children are not superspreaders.

When the right public health measures are implemented, day care centers are safe for both children and staff members, the researchers said.

The study was published Monday in the Lancet Child & Adolescent Health and conducted in the French cities of Paris, Rouen and Annecy between June 4 and July 3 -- up to two months after France's national lockdown.
The study used data from rapid antibody tests and found the prevalence of antibodies for children at day care centers was only 3.7% -- well below the national rate of 10% found in adults in the same time period.

The 14 children that were found to have antibodies came from 13 different centers, and the two children from the same center never had contact.

At those day care centers, staff members wore face masks; enrollment and staffing were reduced; children who became symptomatic were excluded; staff conducted regular temperature checks and reinforced hand hygiene; and everyone practiced physical distancing.

But the researchers said one limitation to the study was that data were collected before the emergence of coronavirus variants that some experts suggest may be more transmissible in children.

In the US, more than 2.9 million children have been infected with coronavirus throughout this pandemic, according to a report last week from the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Children's Hospital Association.

Covid-19 cases in children represent about 13% of all US cases, the report said. But the definition of "child" varied by state. Some states defined "child" as those under age 14, while some considered children to be anyone under 20.

Severe illness from the virus is rare among children, the report said.

"However, there is an urgent need to collect more data on longer-term impacts of the pandemic on children, including ways the virus may harm the long-term physical health of infected children, as well as its emotional and mental health effects," it said.
More...

Ya know, we must all remain humbled by the fact that the data has never given us a good and reliable snapshot of what the hell is going on.

I notice that in recent days there has been new modeling released and going around and about that continues to bang on the drum of their being ten times more covid cases out there then have been reported in the past. There is nothing new with that assertion, we have seen it since the beginning. It is just that a year has gone by and more and more studies still want to make that case. The point is not whether I agree with them or not. The point is that they are there and have to be reconciled some how over time.

So let's just say for shiites and giggles that the number of cases that have occurred is only five times what is reported rather than the ten times in recent studies- so as to come at it in a moderate kind of way.

We have had about 28 million cases reported so far. The five times would take us to 140 million. out of a population of what- 366 million or the like. In other words, 38%.

So that number could easily skip up to more than 50% either by the "10-times unreported" theory/study having some merit or just by the newer more transmissable variants spreading and doing their thing or just the current virus which is chugging along plenty fast already.

If that is true or has some merit then we are at sort of crazy or precarious tipping point, where the numbers could explode as a result of the more transmissable variants but their rapid spread would also start driving the numbers of people who have had it or exposed to above the 50% mark- if some of these models are correct- which would or is already reducing its transmissability in the general population due to high levels of previous exposure (not my restraint in not using the H word, I dont go that binary route but accept it as a factor).

Don't know. Going to need to have to give some weight to some of these models though if the case load keeps going down while the tramsmissability of the virus is allegedly going up. Adding some vaccine into the mix will only increase the "previous exposure" population.

I think I said I dont know. And neither does anyone else right now. Interesting time. I agree with the title of this article except I would put an "OR NOT" at the end of it.

Why The Pandemic Is 10 Times Worse Than You Think
https://www.npr.org/sections/health...the-pandemic-is-10-times-worse-than-you-think

gwb-trading · Feb 9, 2021

TreeFrogTrader said:
Ya know, we must all remain humbled by the fact that the data has never given us a good and reliable snapshot of what the hell is going on.

I notice that in recent days there has been new modeling released and going around and about that continues to bang on the drum of their being ten times more covid cases out there then have been reported in the past. There is nothing new with that assertion, we have seen it since the beginning. It is just that a year has gone by and more and more studies still want to make that case. The point is not whether I agree with them or not. The point is that they are there and have to be reconciled some how over time.

So let's just say for shiites and giggles that the number of cases that have occurred is only five times what is reported rather than the ten times in recent studies- so as to come at it in a moderate kind of way.

We have had about 28 million cases reported so far. The five times would take us to 140 million. out of a population of what- 366 million or the like. In other words, 38%.

So that number could easily skip up to more than 50% either by the "10-times unreported" theory/study having some merit or just by the newer more transmissable variants spreading and doing their thing.

If that is true or has some merit then we are at sort of crazy or precarious tipping point, where the numbers could explode as a result of the more transmissable variants but their rapid spread would also start driving the numbers of people who have had it or exposed to above the 50% mark- if some of these models are correct- which would or is already reducing its transmissability in the general population due to high levels of previous exposure (not my restraint in not using the H word, I dont go that binary route but accept it as a factor).

Don't know. Going to need to have to give some weight to some of these models though if the case load keeps going down while the tramsmissability of the virus is allegedly going up. Adding some vaccine into the mix will only increase the "previous exposure" population.

I think I said I dont know. And neither does anyone else right now. Interesting time. I agree with the title of this article except I would put an "OR NOT" at the end of it.

Why The Pandemic Is 10 Times Worse Than You Think
https://www.npr.org/sections/health...the-pandemic-is-10-times-worse-than-you-think
More...

Actually most of the earlier studies stated the number of total estimated COVID infections was 7 or 8 times the number of known cases. This ratio has changed in recent studies to only 3 or 4 times the number of estimated COVID infections than the known cases. Part of the reason for this change is that COVID testing is much more freely available now. Early on in the pandemic into the fall there was a shortage of COVID tests and it was difficult to get one.

Seeing that COVID re-infections are now being documented as common -- being infected naturally earlier does not provide protection against being infected again in many cases. This is particularly true if your first infection was minor.

TreeFrogTrader · Feb 9, 2021

gwb-trading said:
Actually most of the earlier studies stated the number of total estimated COVID infections was 7 or 8 times the number of known cases. This ratio has changed in recent studies to only 3 or 4 times the number of estimated COVID infections than the known cases. Part of the reason for this change is that COVID testing is much more freely available now. Early on in the pandemic into the fall there was a shortage of COVID tests and it was difficult to get one.

Seeing that COVID re-infections are now being documented as common -- being infected naturally earlier does not provide protection against being infected again in many cases. This is particularly true if your first infection was minor.
More...

It's a numbers game.

There will be re-infections and there will be infections after vaccinations. The data already says that. With this we move forward. Re-infection is just natures way sometimes of giving you the second shot that the vaccine researchers already know can be necessary for many.

One of the ways that a population comes to tolerate a disease is when it circulates year after year and ceases to be a novel virus although still troublesome. As is the case with the flu.
The ideal situation is to have a virus mutate to a more transmissable but less deadly form so that the general population gets a dose of it to get it past the "novel virus" phase for the patient. We dont control that but it does happen and can be a good thing, although kind of rough on the general population.

SunTrader · Feb 9, 2021

Still - new cases are dropping dramatically, all the while these variants having been around lately:-

gwb-trading · Feb 10, 2021

TreeFrogTrader said:
It's a numbers game.

There will be re-infections and there will be infections after vaccinations. The data already says that. With this we move forward. Re-infection is just natures way sometimes of giving you the second shot that the vaccine researchers already know can be necessary for many.

One of the ways that a population comes to tolerate a disease is when it circulates year after year and ceases to be a novel virus although still troublesome. As is the case with the flu.
The ideal situation is to have a virus mutate to a more transmissable but less deadly form so that the general population gets a dose of it to get it past the "novel virus" phase for the patient. We dont control that but it does happen and can be a good thing, although kind of rough on the general population.
More...

More information on estimates of infections in recent models. Most models show 3 or 4 estimated infections for every confirmed case -- now that COVID testing is widely available.

Algorithm estimates COVID-19 infections in the US are three times higher than reported
The model calculated far greater numbers than the confirmed cases in other countries
https://thenextweb.com/neural/2021/...-the-us-are-three-times-higher-than-reported/

An algorithm developed at the UT Southwestern medical center has estimated that there are almost three times as many COVID-19 infections in the US than the number of confirmed cases.

The model makes daily predictions of both total and current infections across the US and in the 50 countries worst affected by the virus.

It calculated that more than 71 million people in the US had contracted COVID-19 by February 4, when there were only 26.7 million confirmed cases.

The model also estimated that 7 million people in the country currently have infections and are potentially contagious.

In other countries, the algorithm also calculated far higher numbers of infections than those reported. In the UK, it calculated that there were nearly 25 million — rather than around 4 million confirmed cases — while in Mexico, it predicted that there were almost 27.6 million instead of 1.9 million.

“The estimates of actual infections reveal for the first time the true severity of COVID-19 across the U.S. and in countries worldwide,” said study author Jungsik Noh in a statement.

The algorithm’s calculations are derived from the number of reported deaths, rather than the amount of lab-confirmed cases.

It then assumes that the infection fatality rate is 0.66%, based on early pandemic data in China.

It also examines other factors, such as the average days it takes for someone with symptoms to either die or recover.

Finally, it compares its predictions with the number of publicly-reported cases to calculate a ratio of confirmed-to-estimated infections.

Noh compared his early findings with existing prevalence rates found in studies that used blood tests to check for antibodies to the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

He found that the algorithm’s estimates closely corresponded to the percentage of people who tested positive for antibodies.

Noh admits that the estimates are rough, due to the uncertainty of factors such as the COVID-19 death rate. Nonetheless, he says they’re more accurate than the confirmed cases used to guide public health policies:

Knowing the true severity in different regions will help us effectively fight against the virus spreading. The currently infected population is the cause of future infections and deaths. Its actual size in a region is a crucial variable required when determining the severity of COVID-19 and building strategies against regional outbreaks.

You can read the study paper in the journal PLOS ONE.

gwb-trading · Feb 10, 2021

Tsing Tao said:
Not a problem. I've got a doc ready to "give me" my vaccine and sign off on my "passport".
More...

Vaccine passports are going international --- shortly you will not be able to cross a border without one,

COVID Vaccine Passport, the new trend being adopted by world nations
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...being-adopted-by-world-nations/as80770025.cms

gwb-trading · Feb 11, 2021

The people who create articles like this apparently don't recognize that you already need Passports to travel to other countries... and many countries already require vaccination cards ((ICVP yellow cards) in order to visit them. I guess actually requiring a travel passport or yellow card is Orwellian in their world as well.

Heralded as key to returning to normal, digital "vaccine passport" plans prompt Orwellian concerns
International travel won't be easy until you're vaccinated — and you might need a digital passport to prove it
https://www.salon.com/2021/02/10/wh...avel-vaccination-covid-surveillance-foucault/

CaptainObvious · Feb 11, 2021

gwb-trading said:
The people who create articles like this apparently don't recognize that you already need Passports to travel to other countries... and many countries already require vaccination cards ((ICVP yellow cards) in order to visit them. I guess actually requiring a travel passport or yellow card is Orwellian in their world as well.

Heralded as key to returning to normal, digital "vaccine passport" plans prompt Orwellian concerns
International travel won't be easy until you're vaccinated — and you might need a digital passport to prove it
https://www.salon.com/2021/02/10/wh...avel-vaccination-covid-surveillance-foucault/
More...

Except when crossing the southern border. No papers required there. No proof of anything required.

smallfil · Feb 11, 2021

Too late now. With all the lies and disinformation spread by extreme liberal idiots, including those by ET trolls, more Americans have died and will continue to die. Funny, the extreme liberals rushing to get the vaccine, completely, ignoring the risks especially, if you have a lot of ailments. The rest of us will wait. You ass clowns can be the guinea pigs of your scientific experiments and disinformation. We will just watch for the results.

PintoFire · Feb 11, 2021

Vaccine passports? Sounds like new world order type shit to me.