Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones forecasts the economy will see an 'absolute supersonic boom' in 2021 https://markets.businessinsider.com...boom-outlook-vaccine-rally-2020-12-1029863277 Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones told Yahoo Finance the economy will see an explosion of growth next year as the coronavirus vaccine unleashes pent-up demand from consumers and investors. "I have four kids in their 20s. And, it's like a horse at the beginning of a race," said Jones. "They're just ready to get out and go crazy, like I think everyone else in the world." The investor added that the stock market is on a "combination of fiscal monetary pulse that we've never seen before in history," resulting in sky-high multiples. Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones told Yahoo finance there will be an "absolute, supersonic boom" in the economy in the second and third quarters of 2021 as the coronavirus vaccine unleashes pent-up demand across the US. "The vaccine is going to bring us back. We're going to have an incredible growth rebound," Jones said. "I have four kids in their 20s. And, it's like a horse at the beginning of a race," he added. "They're so ready to get to see their friends, to get to restaurants, to vacation. They're just ready to get out and go crazy, like I think everyone else in the world," he added. The founder of Tudor Investment Corporation cited the beaten-down retail industry as one area that will experience a "second-quarter explosion" as more people are inoculated and resume their pre-COVID lifestyles. Jones also said that fiscal and monetary policies are pushing stock valuations to levels higher than the dotcom era. And with interest rates at historic lows, investors have no choice but to put their cash into stocks to generate returns, he said. "I think the stock market's on a combination of fiscal monetary pulse that we've never seen before in history, nothing like this," the investor said. As the economy booms with pent-up demand from consumers and investors, he sees commodities rallying, inflation ticking higher, and bonds pointing lower. Jones is watching the outcome of the Georgia runoff races that will determine which political party holds the Senate. He said the results are a "50/50 toss up," but the post-vaccine economy will rally regardless of which party controls the Senate.
Goldman Sachs is even more bullish on the power of a COVID-19 vaccine https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold...he-power-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-131741300.html
America's COVID-19-driven job crisis continues — here's one easy way you can tell https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amer...eres-one-easy-way-you-can-tell-120428351.html Anyone on the Street pounding the table on a 2021 V-shaped economic recovery may want to put in for a few days off this month to recharge the ole mental batteries. Because that just seems way off base — even if half the population is vaccinated for COVID-19 by mid-year —in light of the structural damage the COVID-19 pandemic has done to the U.S. jobs market. There is perhaps no better way to see what economic forecasters call “economic scarring” than through the prism of permanent job loss. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that 3.7 million people in November were categorized as permanent job losers. That tally was unchanged versus October, and some 2.5 million higher than in February (despite a recovery in GDP since then). S&P Global Chief Economist Beth Ann Bovino points out that permanent job losers accounted for a “chilling” 34.9% of the 10.7 million people unemployed in November. Here’s how the BLS defines permanent job losers: “permanently separated workers are those who lost their last job or business (for example, they were tired, plant closed down, company moved or there was a permanent reduction in staff), do not expect to be recalled, are actively looking for another job, and are currently available to).” In other words, workers are displaced as their jobs simply go away because of a permanent shift in an end market or a move to automation. A good example of this could be seen in the airline industry. For instance, a pilot that has flown for decades loses their job as the major airlines grapple with weak travel during the pandemic. When air travel will return to pre-pandemic levels is anyone’s guess — it could take five years or more. Where else is that laid off pilot going to find work as a pilot for another airline dealing with similar demand issues? They aren’t, and they are likely to find employment in a job that has nothing to do with their experience and pays less. That is permanent job loss in its ugliest form. That right there will constrain the economic recovery considering it’s happening across service and manufacturing industries beyond the airlines. “The harsh reality is that we don’t expect the economy to regain all the 22.2 million jobs lost from the pandemic until first-quarter 2023,” Bovino said. Bovino will probably prove to be right on the mark. C-suite executives are smack in the middle of redefining what the size of their workforce will look like after the pandemic. Expect permanent job loss to rise over the next months as they bring out the cost-cutting hatchet. Experts say that in order to truly improve the post-pandemic jobs outlook, re-training of permanent job losers on a grand scale will be essential. These workers will need new skills to match the new markets that develop after the health crisis. “Re-training is paramount, paramount, paramount,” said Steve Lucas, CEO of iCIMS, a talent cloud company, on Yahoo Finance Live. “We are not going back to the way the economy was before COVID-19 — it’s just not going to happen. Jobs re-training and up-skilling, that’s happening right now. It’s happening across Corporate America.”
The path seems to be destroy small businesses completely, provide any financial assistance needed to corporations and the politically connected, and pretend to care about the people they pretend to represent.
5 charts show what the global economy looks like heading into 2021 https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/28/5-charts-show-covid-impact-on-the-global-economy-in-2020.html Many countries went into months of lockdown in 2020 in a bid to stem the spread of Covid-19, which reduced cross-border travel and accelerated job losses. Governments increased spending to cushion the economic damage, but are now left with a huge debt pile to reckon with in the coming years. Meanwhile, central banks around the world slashed interest rates and purchased more assets to inject more money into the financial system. (Charts and more at above url)
As I have mentioned in the past -- the 2008 financial crisis was a structural event involving large banks and institutions on the verge of collapse -- and its recovery took many years. The 2020 COVID crisis is a short term economic event -- when the vaccine is widely deployed the business issues will end... and the economy will rebound quickly. Yes... a good number of small businesses will go under but others will quickly buy the assets and take their places in the local strip mall. The recovery can already be seen in many states - even as the second wave has appeared. The 1918 Flu epidemic was quickly followed by the roaring 20's. North Carolina’s economy is rebounding sharply – but will it last? https://www.wraltechwire.com/2020/1...onomy-is-rebounding-sharply-but-will-it-last/ North Carolina’s economy is soaring in a “V” shaped recovery from the worst of the pandemic fallout – shutdowns, social distancing. spreading infections – but whether the rapid recovery will continue is not certain. So says NC State economist Dr. Mike Walden. “It was inevitable that with the record drop in the economy during the spring, that there would be a strong recovery, especially with the massive federal aid,” Walden tells WRAL TechWire. “This was the pattern most economists expected.” Walden’s latest Index of North Carolina Leading Economic Indicators – based on data from November – shows forecast growth above 100 looking ahead to 2021. Back in June the index was down around 80. And more growth could be triggered by new pandemic benefits signed into law by President Trump on Sunday night. Plus, President-elect Joe Biden also is talking about financial relief. Right now, however, Walden sees good – and possibly bad. The “forecast of the state economy’s direction four to six months ahead, rose a healthy 0.9% in November from its level in October,” Walden says. But the red fever line soaring upward is not an indication that all is well with the economy, Walden cautions. “The Index is NOT a measure of the size of the economy – it is a measure of the forecasted pace of GROWTH,” he explains. “Indeed, we are seeing record bounce backs in both the national and state economies since the record drop in economies in the Spring.” But a lot of work has to be done to rebuild the economy back to pre-pandemic levels, he points out “In terms of economic size, NC will not be back to pre-pandemic levels until late 2021, and the state jobless rate won’t be near 4 percent until 2022.” In his Index report, Walden points out that November “gains made in the national index and building permits, and a double-digit drop in initial jobless claims, were behind the Index’s increase.” Yet there are caution flags. Bboth manufacturing components – hours and earnings – recorded losses,” he writes. “This is significant, because manufacturing generally leads other sectors when the economy begins to slow. Indeed, although the improvement in the Index is good news, the re-emergence of the virus will likely trigger a retreat in the economy in the upcoming months.” Like most people, however, he is hopeful about the impact vaccines to fight COVID-19 will help. “[T]ut the delivery of Covid-19 vaccines to increasing numbers of residents should make the retreat short-lived,” he says. The Index is made up of five components, including umemployment claims, building permits, average weekly hours of work and average weekly earnings.
In recent weeks it appears we have more restaurants opening than closing in the Triangle area of North Carolina. This can be seen in the news coverage of openings and closings each week. For example... today's list... Foodie News: Dominican burger joint rolls into Raleigh https://www.wral.com/foodie-news-dominican-burger-joint-rolls-into-raleigh/19453247/ Start off 2021 on the right foot by taking the #TakeOutPledge for your city, county or the entire Triangle – #TriangleTakeOutPledge. Commit to takeout 1-2 times per week to help save our local, independent restaurants. With that, restaurant owners believe they can make it to sunnier weather. And if you feel so compelled, throw a little love to the staff and employees who have been so negatively impacted by the pandemic by tipping generously! Wake County Restaurant News Blogger Eat Raleigh shared the news that a new food truck called Berto’s Chimis opens today (Friday, Jan. 1) at 414 Dupont Circle. The Dominican burger joint is the dream of Roberto Diaz and will offer sandwiches with seasoned beef patties or marinated chicken breasts and sides include tostones, maduras, and yucca fries. Get to know them here. Reader Burke Williams shared with us that Thaiphoon Bistro has opened in the Stonehenge Market shopping center at 7496 Creedmoor Road, operating a takeout version of their downtown restaurant, in the space formerly occupied by 888 Chinese. The downtown location is at 301 Glenwood Avenue. Visit their new location today! Check them out here. Also in Raleigh, Michael DePersia of DePersia & Associates notified me that a new location of Brixx Wood Fired Pizza opened on December 16th at 1540 Dunn Road in the Bedford Village development. Visit them here. Down in Fuquay-Varina, Today in the Quay reported that the owners of the Cleveland Draft House will open a third location in the old Golden Corral building (by Smithfield’s/Moes and the railroad tracks, behind Sherwin Williams). Look for them to open in mid-May. They already have locations in Cleveland and Garner. Visit Cleveland Draft House here. And staying in “the quay” – Johnny’s Pizza has successfully opened their 4th Triangle location – this one at 722 N. Judd Parkway. This one joins the other locations in Apex, Cary and Wake Forest. Swing by and check them out or order online here. On a recent drive down Raleigh’s Hillsborough Street saw a “coming soon” sign for Meat & Bite Food Exchange at 2908 Hillsborough St. Looks like they’ll be offering up burgers, grilled and fried chicken, burritos and tacos – everything a college kid might want/crave! No word on an open date. Get to know them here. Looking for all the outdoor dining options in downtown Raleigh? The Downtown Raleigh Alliance has put together a great list of those options, and they even divided it up by district. Check out that list here. Durham, Orange & Chatham Restaurant News Twitter buddy Burgeoningbaker shared the news that a location of Red Crab Seafood Boil, with locations all over the country, including three in North Carolina (and three more on the way), will soon be opening in the Oak Creek Village shopping center in Durham just down from Zweli’s. Get to know them here. And here are a couple of wonderful resources for those looking to dine in downtown Durham or downtown Chapel Hill – Downtown Durham Inc. has an up-to-date listing of the status of each restaurant in downtown Durham. Check out the list here. And the Downtown Chapel Hill Partnership has put together a similar list for Chapel Hill here. Closings and cancellations The folks over at Raleigh Convergence shared the news that Little Shop, from Anisette, Lousy Hunters Doughnuts and Sustain Market, will be closing for good at the end of their lease on Jan. 10. See the announcement here. Cameron Village’s so•ca restaurant has joined their sister restaurant, kō•än in closing – but just temporarily. Look for their reopening after we get to the other side of Covid. Food Trucks Here are a couple of sites to find and stalk your favorite food trucks here and here. Events Simply eating out has become a bit of an event. The creativity, caution and care our restaurants have taken (and added expenses!) is nothing short of impressive. One thing they are not short on is passion! Anyway, blogger Beck Eats World has put together a pretty impressive list of restaurants with outdoor heaters. Check out the list here. Looking for places to eat out on New Year’s Day? Raleigh Magazine has you covered with a list of options. Check it out here. Not exactly an event per se, but rather some things to celebrate. Visit Raleigh put together a list of the best restaurants that opened in 2020 in the greater Raleigh area. Check that list out here. And WRAL’s Out and About put out a broader list of Triangle-wide openings in 2020. Check that list out here.
Well the scam artists made lots of money... How scammers siphoned $36B in fraudulent unemployment payments from US https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/3960263001 In a Zoom session with the camera turned off, Mayowa describes how he scoops up U.S. unemployment benefits fattened by COVID-19 relief, an international imposter attack that has contributed to at least $36 billion being siphoned away from out-of-work Americans. Mayowa is an engineering student in Nigeria who estimates he’s made about $50,000 since the pandemic began. After compiling a list of real people, he turns to databases of hacked information that charge $2 in cryptocurrency to link that name to a date of birth and Social Security number. In most states that information is all it takes to file for unemployment. Even when state applications require additional verification, a little more money spent on sites such as FamilyTreeNow and TruthFinder provides answers – your mother’s maiden name, where you were born, your high school mascot. Mayowa said he is successful about one in six times he files a claim. “Once we have that information, it’s over,” Mayowa said. “It’s easy money.” Mayowa agreed to take USA TODAY inside the fraud in an interview arranged by security firm Agari, using only his first name to hide his identity. The security company gives him another source of cash: It pays him in Bitcoin to provide information about active scams. Coronavirus-era unemployment fraud was first identified in the state of Washington in May and since has spread to all 50 states, skipping to new targets as government agencies plug holes exposed by the massive scams. Mayowa and his crew of foreign scammers focused in November on Hawaii, Florida and Pennsylvania. In addition to the crushing volume of legitimate claims during COVID-19 and public pressure to speed up payments, mobile banking apps and prepaid debit cards issued by some state unemployment offices paved the way for fraud this year, security experts said. The step-by-step playbook the scammers follow is shared on Telegram, an app that provides cloud-based anonymous messaging and acts as an internet bulletin board of tips and questions. Asked whether he feels bad about stealing from unemployed Americans, Mayowa pointed out that 70% of his peers in school are working the scams as side hustles, too. “No, no remorse,” Mayowa said. “We don’t know them. We don’t know who they are; it’s nobody.” Canary in the coal mine States for years had prepared for low-level fraud, focusing on whether actual state residents filing for unemployment were telling the truth. The recent wave of imposter fraud – including from overseas – caught them off guard. In Washington, alarms began flashing red for Suzi LeVine on May 12. It was 10 p.m. and the message was clear: We are under attack. The commissioner of the state’s unemployment system knew claims were increasing as the pandemic and its economic devastation spread. But suddenly claims were 10-fold what LeVine expected. Things got crazy quickly. Within two weeks of CARES Act funding enriching weekly benefits, $600 million had been bled from the state system – roughly 8% of the $8.6 billion paid over the summer. The state pulled the plug on all payments for two days while it struggled to figure out what was happening. Eventually, the state’s computers started to flag anomalies: out-of-state banks, duplicate email addresses and multiple names using the same bank accounts. But there and elsewhere, antiquated state computer systems failed to flag foreign IP addresses, repeated computer serial numbers and techniques to mask that number. Washington generally sees a few dozen fraudulent claims from imposters a year. Since March, the state has identified 122,000. “When you consider the policy factors accelerating benefits and getting them to the neediest people and the expanded $600 available … we had the perfect storm,” said LeVine, who served as ambassador to Switzerland during the Obama administration. “They have been lying in wait for this moment.” When you consider the policy factors accelerating benefits and getting them to the neediest people and the expanded $600 available … we had the perfect storm. They have been lying in wait for this moment. Suzi LeVine, commissioner of Washington state's Employment Security Department Washington should’ve been a wakeup call for every other state. Instead, it took some states six months or more to introduce new two-factor authentication systems and third-party ID verification tools and to block suspicious addresses. Many also began relying more heavily on a national shared database to detect suspicious actors. A failure to move quickly combined with the ingenuity of the scammers has allowed the fraud to continue rippling across the country, contributing to delays in payments to out-of-work Americans, according to Michele Evermore, a policy analyst at the National Employment Law Project. “These fraudsters are like velociraptors,” Evermore said. “Once they find one piece of the gate is mended, they’ll move on to another part to attack.” The Department of Labor’s Office of the Inspector General estimated in a November report that these schemes and others targeting pandemic unemployment payments represented about $36 billion in losses through November. USA TODAY contacted unemployment departments in all 50 states to ask how much fraud had been paid out, and how much had been recovered. Of the half that responded, only eight have released the amount of taxpayer dollars they improperly paid out in fraud – a fraction of the national estimate. Many states are reticent to discuss the situation, citing security concerns as well as difficulty quantifying what meets the definition of a fraud scheme. Some declined to even estimate loss numbers – or downplayed their significance. Nevada officials say determining that a claim is fraudulent requires interviews with claimants and a “due process opportunity to present evidence.” The Arkansas Division of Workforce Services “has chosen not to respond to this request,” wrote Zoë Calkins, spokeswoman for the unemployment insurance agency. In September, the federal Labor Department gave $100 million to state systems to combat fraud. But state unemployment commissioners say they’re still chronically underfunded, working with decades-old technology that can’t keep up with increasingly complex schemes to bypass identity safeguards. “One of the consequences of having a system that hasn’t been modernized is that it is extremely challenging to deal with the concerted fraudulent attacks,” said Rosa Mendez, a Nevada spokeswoman. The Department of Labor, the FBI and the Secret Service say they’re working together to uncover fraud, plug holes in identity verification systems and claw back millions in improper payments. Prosecutors have tracked down a handful of “threat actors” and “money mules” – U.S. residents who help carry out the schemes. Agari, the security contractor, estimated that Nigerians are responsible for half of all international scams that fall under the umbrella of business email compromise, including unemployment, romance and "get rich quick while you work from home" offers. About a quarter of those reach the U.S. The goal is to recover as much of the pilfered funds as possible. Washington state, for instance, has recovered $357 million of the $600 million stolen. Victims include employees with stolen identities In late October, Kelly Maculan received a letter from the Illinois unemployment system confirming her last day of work had been April 3. Except Maculan wasn't out of work. She was employed full time as an office manager near Chicago. So, she called the number on the letter to notify the state of the error and figured that would be the end of it. Days later, she received another notice that an $822 direct deposit to her had been flagged as fraud – and that she would need to repay it or face legal action. Maculan was irate. She has spent the past eight weeks struggling through long wait times and unfulfilled promises to call her back. After her employer got involved, the state told her this month to disregard all the notices. Scammers need actual people to file their fictitious claims, looking for those who have not already filed on their own. In Maculan’s case, she has no idea how someone got her personal information, although she noted that her Discover card was breached years ago. She blames the state for not having “a system set up to avoid this issue.” Illinois officials declined to comment specifically on Maculan’s case, and they were among those who wouldn’t estimate how much in improper payments they’ve issued since March. Spokesman Will Gomberg did say the Illinois Department of Employment Security has stopped over 341,000 claims due to identity theft since March 1. “If a victim received a notice stating that they owe us money after they reported fraud, this notice of overpayment was sent in error,” Gomberg said. “We want to apologize for any anxiety this may have caused, and we want to reassure victims that they do not owe any money as a result of a fraudulent claim.” Scammers use a 'mule' network Unemployment payments rarely flow directly to the scammers. Instead, experts say fraudsters launder the money through online accounts and people with legitimate U.S. bank accounts. That not only obscures the scammer’s identity but makes it harder for the government to detect the fraud and recoup funds. Mobile banking and other online money-transfer apps have opened up new avenues for moving money around more easily. They allow access to accounts without anyone ever appearing in person – even avoiding cameras at ATMs – and offer debit cards that are easily moved on the black market. Scammers used Green Dot accounts to transfer funds in bulk in the Washington fraud, LeVine said. Mayowa, the scammer in Nigeria, said fraudsters also use Venmo, PayPal, Cash App and Walmart2Walmart to extract funds. Once those funds go to a Green Dot account, they’re often transferred through a series of movements into mules based in the U.S. probably, then moved offshore in two to three hops,” said Armen Najarian, chief identity officer of Agari, the security firm. Once those funds go to a Green Dot account, they’re often transferred through a series of movements into mules based in the U.S. probably, then moved offshore in two to three hops. Armen Najarian, chief identity officer of Agari, the security firm Philip Lerma, chief risk officer at Green Dot, said the company is aware of its role in the unemployment fraud and is taking an active role in identifying problems. “For cases related to unemployment funds, we immediately engage state agencies and other third parties to make them aware of potentially fraudulent activity and help them assess, confirm and address it quickly and effectively,” Lerma wrote. “In many cases, using advanced device forensics, data analysis and other proprietary controls, we’ve been able to identify suspicious activity and prevent fraudulent transfers before they go through.” A network of so-called “money mules” includes full co-conspirators and those who have been groomed – sometimes for years – and may be unaware of their role. Najarian estimated that half are unwitting partners of puppeteers in Nigeria, South Africa or the United States. Judy Middleton, 70, of Ridgeland, Mississippi, is accused by federal prosecutors of serving as a money mule for a sophisticated scam, one of those that targeted Washington’s unemployment system. She appears to have no other criminal history. The retiree and grandmother told the court she has two homes, a motor home and two vehicles. In a federal case filed in Jackson, Mississippi, in November, prosecutors said a criminal ring filed unemployment claims on behalf of eight people whose direct deposit payments flowed to Middleton’s bank account, $79,922 in total. It’s unclear from the court records who was orchestrating the scam. Prosecutors say Middleton withdrew the money via ATMs and cashier’s checks. She also bought Walmart and Kroger gift cards and sent money via wire transfers to other bank accounts. In one instance, prosecutors say, Middleton packaged up $19,000 in cash and mailed it through the U.S. Postal Service to a man in Colorado. If convicted of all 19 fraud charges, Middleton would face hundreds of years in prison, fines and supervision. Her trial has been delayed until March. Neither she nor her attorney answered phone calls seeking comment. Fallout from scams plague states Since March, backlogs and political pressure have forced the resignation of two state insurance commissioners in Florida and Oklahoma. Two others, in Kentucky and Wisconsin, have been fired. Pressure mounted for Washington Gov. Jay Inslee to fire his commissioner, LeVine, too, after hundreds of millions in public funds were stolen. So far, LeVine has kept her job. She says the department worked quickly to find holes and plug them while alerting other states to prepare. She got training from her staff on verifying identification and worked alongside the National Guard, which had offered emergency help. “We’ve been humbled by being the first out of the gate to suffer this attack, but we’ve grown and improved our responsiveness,” LeVine said. California officials drew headlines recently for announcing they suspect as much as $2 billion was paid out in improper payments. Other states have reported lower losses: $242 million in Massachusetts, $200 million in Michigan, $18 million in Rhode Island, $8 million in Arizona and $6 million in Wisconsin. Three states that declined to share their numbers – Oregon, Tennessee and West Virginia – issued identical statements to USA TODAY, saying they “cannot discuss details involving ongoing fraud prevention tactics, investigations, or the scope of potentially fraudulent activity.” None of those officials would say where the statement came from. All states belong to the same lobby organization, the National Association of State Workforce Agencies. That association did not respond to requests for comment.
Bottom Line: Only when the prevalence of COVID across society is low will jobs and the economy recover. Those urging politicians to allow COVID to spread widely and have no restrictions -- are basically supporting the continuing tanking of business in our local communities. Economy sees job loss in December for the first time since April as surging virus takes toll https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/08/jobs-report-december-2020.html