Well I hope the job losses have stalled with more PPP getting out there and letting companies keep employees. I spoke with one acquaintance who just got their PPP funded and hired back everyone that was furloughed. I was so happy to hear that and hope that is the case with most of the recipients of the PPP loans.
My in-laws live in a community still under development in NC. There were six new houses scheduled to close in the past three weeks. Two of the six backed out due to job losses and the mortgage commitment being dropped; the other four closed. The "dropped" two houses were placed back on the market and sold within 24 hours.... and are moving forward to quick closings.
Who would have thought that having Americans save money, cut spending and pay down debt would be viewed as a bad thing... New threat to the economy: Americans are saving like it's the 1980s https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/12/investing/jobs-coronavirus-consumer-spending-debt/index.html Americans are slashing their spending, hoarding cash and shrinking their credit card debt as they fear their jobs could disappear during the coronavirus pandemic. US credit card debt suddenly reversed course in March and fell by the largest percentage in more than 30 years. At the same time, savings rates climbed to levels unseen since Ronald Reagan was in the White House. The dramatic shifts in consumer behavior reflect the unprecedented turmoil in the US economy caused by the pandemic. Although caution is a logical response to that uncertainty, hunkering down also poses a risk to the recovery in an economy dominated by consumer spending. A so-called V-shaped recovery can't happen if consumers are sitting on the sidelines. More than 33 million Americans have filed for initial unemployment claims since mid-March, and economists warn the jobs market won't return to pre-crisis levels for years. "Consumers are very cautious," said Russell Price, chief economist at Ameriprise Financial. "We're right in the middle of the storm." 'Uncertainty and fear' The unemployment rate soared to 14.7% in April — the most severe unemployment crisis since the Great Depression — and Americans are bracing for more challenging times ahead. The perceived probability of losing one's job over the next 12 months soared to nearly 21% in April, according to a New York Federal Reserve survey released Monday. It was the second straight month of a record high for this metric in the survey, which the NY Fed launched in 2013. Workers are also worried about how they'll land another job if they lose theirs. The perceived probability of finding a job in the next three months tumbled 6.1 percentage points to 47% in April, the largest monthly decline ever recorded. The survey described "considerable deteriorations" in household expectations, including record lows for expected earnings, income and spending growth. "We know that Covid has not gone away," said Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist at Quill Intelligence. "That is going to keep in place an element of uncertainty and fear and hold back consumers' ability or desire to spend." Credit card debt collapses Worried Americans are drastically scaling back their credit card debt, the most expensive form of typical borrowing. In March, revolving credit outstanding collapsed at an annual rate of 31%, according to a Federal Reserve report released last week. It was the largest one-month decline since January 1989. Part of that drop, economists say, is that banks have pulled back on creditlines as more people become unemployed. But consumers are also becoming more frugal and reining in their borrowing in case their income is wiped out. The NY Fed survey found that the perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months rose to 16.2% in April, well above the 12-month trailing average of 11.9%. "People have seriously reined in their spending. You have to wonder when they will feel comfortable splurging," said Booth. Savings rate spiked to Reagan-era levels Credit card borrowing and spending probably declined further in April. For example, Visa (V) reported that credit card payment volumes plunged 31% through April 28. Visa said the only category of US payments volume that is growing is food and drugstores, along with Walmart (WMT), Costco (COST) and Target (TGT). Spending on everything else was down in April. Visa has warned that payments volume in the "hardest-hit" categories of travel, fuel, restaurants and entertainment plunged by more than 50% in April. Travel spending collapsed by about 80% last month. "The consumer that constitutes the beating heart of the real economy is preparing for a much longer slowdown than what policymakers are telling them," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, a consultancy. For now, Americans are building cash reserves to help them get through the storm. The savings rate in the United States climbed from 8% in February to 13.1% in March. That was the highest savings rate since November 1981. And given the disastrous economic news, the savings rate will likely go even higher when April statistics are released. "When you have a depression-like shock, households will increase savings," said Brusuelas, who called the March spike in savings rate "insane." Main Street is hurting The shifts in consumer behavior are another reminder of the pain on Main Street that often gets lost given the near-euphoria on Wall Street. The US stock market has raced back to life since late March as investors have celebrated the response from the federal government and signs of hope on the health front. Although investors are optimistic about the future of the large companies that make up the S&P 500, it's clear that small and medium-sized businesses are hurting badly. About 83% of middle-market businesses reported a general decline in economic prospects in April, according to a survey released Monday by RSM. And more than half expect a decline in conditions over the next six months. About 46% of executives reported a drop in April hiring and nearly a third noted a decline in compensation being offered. RSM's middle-market business index collapsed to record lows in April on the bleak findings. RSM said the survey strongly implies the federal government's stimulus efforts "will not be sufficient to revive the beating heart and soul of the real economy in the near term." Reopening the economy Although the shifts in consumer behavior are rational, they point to longer-term challenges for an economy that is dominated by consumer spending, which makes up more than two-thirds of US GDP. Economists warn that even after stay-at-home orders are lifted, many Americans won't spend as aggressively as before until there is a vaccine. It's not as simple as reopening the economy. Many consumers, especially senior citizens and those with preexisting conditions, will probably shy away from crowds for the foreseeable future. And that means the economy can't get flipped back on like a light switch. "Even if you are a multimillionaire, you're going to be much more reluctant to go to restaurants, baseball games and travel on airplanes," Ameriprise's Price said.
One day maybe the economic "experts" will come to realize that what happens on Wall Street is more often than not in no way reflecting what happens on Main Street. Been that way since the eighties. 401K doesn't mean shit if you don't earn enough to contribute. Interest don't mean shit if your credit is shot and you're overextended to begin with. Some will blame them for being in this predicament. I blame the fucking system that pays do nothing executives the sky and the moon while cutting pay and benefits of the workforce. Pay for the average worker has been flat to down for decades. These assholes keep talking about an infrastructure plan which would be a gigantic boom to the main street economy. Talking about it is what they have been doing for decades with the same pricks asking the same questions, where will the money come from? I don't know motherfuckers, where does the trillions come from to bail out corporations and banks?
Want to see an example of a guy "talking his own book". The reality about test processing is greatly different. Currently North Carolina struggles to get 5000 COVID-19 tests processed each day. The majority are processed by LabCorp who says they are doing the max they can handle. Our hold-up in N.C. currently is not the number of available test kits but getting them processed. Here is the Lab Corp CEO proclaiming we can re-open America and he believes we are processing enough tests. Despite nearly all the states in the U.S. still being below their test processing thresholds for re-opening. One of the CEOs key idiotic comments being "I’m not convinced that we need to have 2 to 3 million tests per day." -- well dummy that is the minimum required to ensure a safe re-opening. So when your company fails to deliver the testing capacity it claims if could provide for weeks... let's just lower the bar. Current COVID-19 testing capacity can support reopening of economy, says LabCorp CEO https://www.wraltechwire.com/2020/0...upport-reopening-of-economy-says-labcorp-ceo/ Adam Schechter, chief executive officer at Burlington-based life science giant LabCorp, says the current capacity for COVID-19 testing is sufficient to support a reopening of the US economy. In an interview with CNBC Wednesday morning, Schechter noted: “I’m not convinced that we need to have 2 to 3 million tests per day. I believe that we are ready to start to open up states with the testing that’s available today and that’s only going to increase over the coming weeks.” Citing the Covid Tracking Project, CNBC said the US processed 289,472 tests on Tuesday. Nearly 10 million tests since January. LabCorp is one of the firms marketing COVID-19 related tests. “I think that it’s still unknown exactly how many tests are going to be needed, but I do think different industries are going to look at testing differently and even certain employers will look at testing differently for certain employees than others,” Schechter said. LabCorp also is “in talks with large employers to help them screen employees to safely get workers back in the office, he said, adding that an announcement is coming tomorrow,” CNBC reported. “We are going to do everything we possibly can to help employers get employees back to work,” he said.
This is why we cannot have nice things.. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-new...y-store-won-n1204866?cid=referral_taboolafeed
Fed Chair Powell just said 40% of households making less than $40,000 a year lost a job in March https://www.businessinsider.com/fed...avirus-jobs-low-income-lost-percentage-2020-5 Powell said that around 40% of Americans earning less than $40,000 a year lost a job in March, citing a Fed study set to be published on Thursday. "This reversal of economic fortune has caused a level of pain that is hard to capture in words, as lives are upended amid great uncertainty about the future," he said during a webinar. Powell also called for further economic relief to shore up a battered economy ravaged by the pandemic. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that a substantial portion of lower-income Americans had been laid off in March. "A Fed survey being released tomorrow reflects findings similar to many others: Among people who were working in February, almost 40% of those in households making less than $40,000 a year had lost a job in March," Powell said in a webinar at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. "This reversal of economic fortune has caused a level of pain that is hard to capture in words, as lives are upended amid great uncertainty about the future," he said. The alarming statistic set to be published in Thursday's Fed study underscores the severe pain felt among low-income workers and their families during the pandemic. Many of those jobs are concentrated in the service sector, which are less likely to have benefits like paid sick leave or the ability for employees to work from home. (More at above url)
CDC guidelines shelved by Trump administration spell out far stricter road map to reopening https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/13/politics/cdc-guidelines-shelved-return-to-normal/index.html Guidelines to reopen the US drafted by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that were shelved by the Trump administration are far more strict and detailed than the White House's own road map toward a return to normal, a CNN review found. On Wednesday, CNN obtained the document, which expands on a 17-page draft report that CNN reported on last week. A senior CDC official told CNN at the time that the White House does not plan on implementing the agency's guidelines, despite the full report being the result of a request from the White House's coronavirus task force, specifically Dr. Deborah Birx. The Associated Press first reported on the full CDC guidance. The 68 pages of public health surveillance and modeling examine how Americans can safely and slowly return to normal life. While some of the advice is consistent with the White House's "Guidelines: Opening Up America Again," the document contains additional details on what is needed for schools, businesses, communities of faith, mass transportation and travel to resume successfully. Based on the guidance, "no one who is reopening meets the criteria for reopening," a senior CDC official told CNN. One major discrepancy between the White House and CDC guidelines surrounds nonessential travel. In the White House plan, nonessential travel can resume as early as Phase 2. The CDC, however, recommends that nonessential travel be avoided until Phase 3, and even then suggests it "may be considered" and advises caution. The White House has spelled out a three-phase approach to reopening the country's economy from stay-at-home orders meant to fight the spread of the novel coronavirus. The first phase suggests schools that are closed should remain so and employees who are able to telework should keep working from home. Large venues, including some restaurants, can operate under strict social distancing protocols. Gyms can open as long as they maintain social distancing guidelines, but bars should remain shuttered. Phases 2 and 3 gradually decrease the recommended restrictions. President Donald Trump has urged the country to reopen and has encouraged governors to make moves toward lifting restrictions on their states despite many of them not meeting benchmarks set by the White House coronavirus task force. Public health professionals have repeatedly stated that reopening the country too soon could lead to a second wave of coronavirus cases and result in more deaths. As of Wednesday night, more than 84,000 Americans had died from Covid-19 and more than 1.39 million cases had been reported in the United States, according to the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. The CDC draft also provides various outlines for how to monitor reopening, and prevent and contain potential outbreaks that come during that process. The CDC gives communities details on what to look for regarding potential flare-ups while they implement mitigation techniques. However, as CNN reported last week, the Trump administration does not plan to use the CDC's guidance. An administration official told CNN last week that CDC leadership hadn't seen the draft before it leaked and there were concerns from the task force about the drafted guidance. That administration official told CNN that the CDC's guidance was "overly prescriptive" and did not fit in the "phases" outlined by the task force. A senior administration official added that the draft document was the subject of heated internal debate, but ultimately members of the task force felt it was too specific and might not be helpful as nationwide guidance. The shelved guidelines have driven another wedge between the White House and the CDC, which typically leads public health efforts during a pandemic. During testimony in front of a Senate committee on Tuesday, CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield said his agency's guidance would be released soon but offered no exact timing. A CDC spokesman declined to comment on the document. Draft guidelines give specific guidance for different sectors The draft document included specific guidance for six categories: child care programs; schools and day camps; communities of faith; employers with vulnerable workers; restaurants and bars; and mass transit administrators. For each category, it notes reopening in phases, CNN reported last week. The CDC guidelines also include updated language on faith-based organizations. Those additional details came after officials at the US Department of Health and Human Services' Office for Civil Rights asked for the CDC to ease social distancing recommendations for those groups, encouraging federal health officials to let churches congregate, an official involved told CNN. The official said that guidance was one point of contention with the administration. According to the official, HHS officials "made" them take out a reference to Communion plates, despite a scientific review that confirmed one of the ways people can contract the virus is by drinking out of a Communion cup. Health officials outside of HHS, but still involved in guidelines discussion, raised concerns about this request. One source familiar with the matter said that this is aligned with the President's agenda and complained that the original wording in the CDC document went against that agenda by singling out churches. This official said the guidelines needed to be more broad -- giving the example of "no one should share a cup" versus "don't share a Communion cup." Roger Severino, the director of the Office for Civil Rights at HHS, told CNN that the agency does not comment on internal deliberations, but added that "protections against religious discrimination aren't suspended during an emergency. This means the federal government cannot single out religious conduct as somehow being more dangerous or worthy of scrutiny than comparable secular behavior. HHS has a duty to instruct the public on how to stay safe during this crisis and can absolutely do so without dictating to people how they should worship God." The guidelines spell out additional suggestions for restaurants, child care programs and schools on serving meals. Some suggestions for restaurants in various phases of reopening include limiting the size of parties dining together to ensure social distancing and considering options for dine-in customers to order ahead of time to limit the amount of time spent in the establishment. Child care programs and schools are encouraged to serve meals in classrooms instead of cafeterias and to close communal areas like auditoriums. Public transportation was included in the report. One of the guidelines suggested by the CDC was that buses should close every other row of seats.
And just about every single one of them got a pay increase with the 600 bucks and their unemployment, assuming they are receiving the benefit. Their real pain will be when the 600 goes away and they don't get called back to work. Those currently experiencing more pain are the people who make a decent paycheck and now are trying to manage on far less while being unemployed, and they too are sweating the possibility of a permanent job loss.