and staying closed based on what we know now will just put off infections and not prevent them unless we stay closed to a vaccine. Why is that never explained?
Protests mark growing unrest with California stay-home order https://apnews.com/32d5564a7774aae7c2b45b850d1000f5 Governor Shutdown is starting to get pushback from cities and the people. I predict the law suits are going to commence soon.
hey... i did a little research... for the potential law suits... (disclaimer... I am about to post as GWB does and act like all the experts are unified and agree with my position.) The experts don't think this virus will go away... so shutdown for low risk groups is unsupported by science. https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-outbreak-end.html "I think it's unlikely that this coronavirus — because it's so readily transmissible — will disappear completely," said Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious-disease specialist at Vanderbilt University in Tennessee. Eradication of a disease is "difficult and rarely achieved," according to the World Health Organization. For that to happen, there must be an available intervention to interrupt transmission, there must be diagnostic tools to detect cases that could lead to transmission and humans must be the only reservoir for the virus, they wrote. Even if the coronavirus is eradicated among humans, if the virus continues to survive in its natural form in animal reservoirs, those reservoirs can put the virus back into circulation, Epstein said. "I think it's always possible the thing has one cycle, we nail it, it doesn't mutate and it's eradicated," he added. "But I think the most likely prospect is that we don't entirely eradicate it." There's a chance that, even if we manage to quench this virus, it might turn into a seasonal disease, making a comeback every year like other seasonal diseases such as the flu or colds, Epstein said. If that happens, there's a chance it could have less of an impact during subsequent circulations because more people will have built up immunity, Adalja said. But it's not clear if humans can become reinfected with this virus yet, Gordon said. People can get reinfected by the other circulating coronaviruses because our immunity to them wanes over time. Immunity doesn't wane with every virus, however. With viruses such as the one that causes measles, once someone has it or has been vaccinated against it, they won't become reinfected, Schaffner said. Though waning immunity is the most likely cause for reinfection, it's also possible that viruses might mutate just enough to evade the immune system. "But right now, there is no evidence that the coronavirus is mutating in any significant way," Gordon said. "The viral sequences that are available are nearly identical." It's difficult to predict how the virus will behave. more at link...
The final paragraph from this article about previous pandemics is very pertinent to the current COVID-19 pandemic. "Here in St. Louis in 1918, we had a courageous, tough health commissioner, Max Starkloff, who had back up from Mayor Henry Kiel. They brought together the public healthcare community, business leaders, the school superintendent and the archbishop and persuaded them that there needed to be a shutdown to stem the spread of the flu. Starkloff's leadership was marked by truth, transparency and a steel spine. As his shut down continued, he got incredible push back from business, church and public school leaders, but held firm. Because of this, Saint Louis, the 4th largest city in the country at the time, had a very low per capita death rate and the economy rebounded faster and better than many other cities. We need more Max Starkloffs and Henry Kiels today." https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/03/politics/what-matters-may-3/index.html So in summary -- Cities/States that quarantine properly have less death and better economic rebounds.
Wow! So wait a second, you're saying if everyone locks themselves inside and doesn't come out for a period of time it hampers the spread of a communicable disease, and that less people who would die from the disease actually die? Holy shit, you are on to something here! Not to mention that they have a better economic rebound because they cratered their economy in the first place, making the rebound that much more pronounced. And I thought Captain Obvious was Captain Obvious.
They have a better economic recovery because they tamper down the disease better and don't have a lengthy outbreak of the disease crater their economies for long periods of time. Cities/States that fail to have a proper lockdown period or re-open too early have worse economic devastation than City/States that follow the best scientific path with a proper lockdown when facing a pandemic. The examples in the 1918 flu epidemic clearly demonstrate this. All the cities and towns that locked down properly had a smaller economic downside than cities/towns that failed to lock down properly which had worse economic devastation.
Sorry, but 1918 examples are useful for entertainment purposes only. To compare the economies of then and now is utterly worthless, and to suggest that what worked then, or what could be implemented now because it was implemented then and to suggest this would have a similar outcome is wildly short sighted.
Actually the study of cities/towns/regions in the United States regarding the 1918 flu serve a very useful purpose in order to estimate the impact today. The primary differences between 1918 and today are: Interconnected with fast transport such as planes and automobiles that allow a pandemic to spread even more quickly. Faster communications are available today for the distribution of information. These communications also allow some people to work from home which alleviates some economic impact of a pandemic. During the 1918 flu, cities/towns/regions serve as great case studies for the economic and health impact of the flu. Each city/town/region varied in policy and it is easy to take a look at the results of their policies. Especially since many shut down roads/rails to people coming in or out. In 1918 - similar to today -- much of Americas GDP in goods / materials was transported primarily by freight train. Today a combination of trains and trucks transport most materials and goods. The dynamics of the transport has not changed much in 100 years except for better communication and planning. Back in 1918, the U.S. was a manufacturing hub with large scale movement of goods via rail ,ship, etc. Similar to today except many of the goods come into the country from abroad today. There are valuable lessons to be learned from the 1918 flu pandemic response - sadly many politicians are ignoring those lessons today. They don't even understand the basics -- that failing of shut-down properly for a period of time leads to a worse economic impact from a pandemic.