The "Pandemic Flu" has finally arrived.

Discussion in 'Chit Chat' started by SouthAmerica, Jun 24, 2006.

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    June 24, 2006

    SouthAmerica: The scare industry here in the US has been beating their drums for at least the last 12 months about the coming “Pandemic Flu” and how 300 million people from around the world would die from this new pandemic flu in a short period of time.

    About 3 weeks ago I was listening to Bloomberg radio on my car when a Wall Street analyst was interviewing a pandemic flu expert – and the scientist said that we did not have much to worry about as long the H5N1 bird flu virus was passing from bird to humans.

    He also said that - but when they confirmed the first H5N1 bird flu virus from "human to human" the red flag had been raised and the shit was getting close to hit the fan.

    Now that the virus has evolved into a virus that affect human to human – it is time to start worrying and figure out which industries will be hit hard because of this new form of H5N1 bird flu virus.

    It is time to start dumping your stocks such as: airline stocks comes to mind, and from their many other industries will be hit very hard by this new pandemic flu – the new H5N1 bird flu virus.

    You guys in Wall Street must be prepared to adjust your investments accordingly to risk and exposure to this new virus. The economic impact will be tremendous from this new virus in a number of areas of the economy.

    It will affect the currency of affected countries, all kinds of trading, travel, and so on……

    I guess the first economy to be affected by this new virus will be Indonesia and from there the virus should spread relative quick to other countries.

    Which countries? And when this new virus will arrive in the United States?

    According to the experts in that area it is not if – It is just a matter of when?


    “Human transmission of bird flu confirmed”
    International Herald Tribune - Jun 23, 2006

    An Indonesian man who died after catching the H5N1 bird flu virus from his 10-year-old son represents the first laboratory confirmed case of human- to-human transmission of the disease, a World Health Organization investigation of an unusual family ...

  2. .

    Expert: “Bird flu more widespread than thought in Indonesian poultry”
    The virus will continue to spread unless Indonesia can devise a coordinated approach
    By MARGIE MASON - JAKARTA, Indonesia
    AP – Associated Press (apwire)
    Published: 2006-06-23

    Bird flu is more widespread among Indonesia's poultry stocks than previously thought, and will only get worse if more action isn't taken soon in the country with the world's highest number of human deaths this year, an animal health expert said.

    ''We thought there was dramatic underreporting, but we never imagined that it would be so pervasive,'' said Tufts University's Jeff Mariner, who is working with the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization in Jakarta.

    He spoke on the sidelines of a three-day meeting that wraps up Friday in the nation's capital attended by some of the world's top bird flu experts.

    Mariner is coordinating an FAO program that trains local surveillance teams to conduct field interviews withfarmers to track backyard poultry that have suddenly died. The teams then use bird flu test kits to identify whether bird flu is to blame.

    In the 12 pilot districts on Java Island, the teams detected 78 poultry outbreaks from January to May, roughly one in every 10 interviews resulted in bird flu, Mariner said. He added those numbers cover only about a third of each district due to a lack of manpower needed to conduct the interviews.

    ''Leaders are now realizing, 'Boy, this is just the tip of the iceberg,''' he said Thursday. ''Whereas before, district leaders were saying, 'Well, we don't really think we have it.''' There are plans to expand the project to Bali and Sumatra islands, but Mariner said the virus will continue to spread unless Indonesia can devise a coordinated approach for local governments to work together to control the disease. Slaughtering and vaccination are now currently sporadic at best and often outbreaks in poultry are not reported until a human case is discovered.

    ''It's gonna be a long struggle,'' Mariner said. ''It's 300 million poultry ... and it's a rapid turnover in the population. Essentially, you get an entirely new population after six months.''

    Indonesian officials called the meeting to ask for help in grappling with the virus that killed an average of one person every 2 1/2 days in the country last month. Bird flu has killed at least 39 people in Indonesia, including 27 people this year, and trails only Vietnam's 42 deaths.

    Last month, a tiny farming village on Sumatra Island gained international attention when the largest-ever family cluster was reported. The World Health Organization has concluded that human-to-human transmission likely occurred among seven relatives infected with the H5N1 virus. An eighth family member who was buried before specimens could be taken, is believed to have been infected by poultry, a WHO report said.

    The U.N. agency stressed the virus had not mutated in any major way and that no caseswere detected beyond members of the family, only one of whom survived.

    Malik Peiris, the Hong Kong University professor who discovered the SARS virus, said scientists must closely monitor all clusters to ensure they are not behaving differently.

    ''It's very important that they be investigated because they could be the first signal of an emerging pandemic,'' he said.

    Bird flu is contracted by humans mostly through contact with sick chickens.

    But experts fear the virus will mutate into a form that spreads easily among people, potentially sparking a pandemic. So far, it remains hard for people to catch, and most human cases have been traced to contact with infected birds.

    Worldwide, the H5N1 virus has killed at least 130 people since it began ravaging Asian poultry stocks in late 2003.

  3. .

    “China bird flu goof-up uncovered”
    Venkatesan Vembu
    Saturday, June 24, 2006
    DNA (Daily News & Analysis) – Mumbai, India

    HONG KONG: Long-held suspicions that Chinese authorities either covered up or overlooked an early human infection of the killer avian flu have now been confirmed.

    Eight researchers and doctors from mainland China have, in a letter published in the New England Journal of Medicine, a prestigious scientific publication, reported that a 24-year-old man in Beijing, who had pneumonia and respiratory distress and died in November 2003, was in fact the earliest victim of the deadly H5N1 strain of the avian flu virus, which has claimed nearly 140 human lives across the world.

    Their statement, which they unsuccessfully tried to retract at the last minute, contradicts China’s official claims that the man died of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrom (SARS); it also sets the clock back for the earliest human infection of the deadly bird flu virus. Officially, China reported its first human infection to the World Health Organisation (WHO) only in November 2005.

    The eight researchers - who come from scientific institutions in Beijing, from the People’s Liberation Army Hospital and the State Key Laboratory of Pathogens and Biosecurity - had said in their letter that genetic sequencing of H5N1 samples taken from the dead man’s lungs showed it to be a mixed virus that could be traced to the 1996 Guangdong goose virus; this admission is significant because it is from the Guangdong goose virus that the H5N1 virus was first isolated in 1996. If the researchers’ statement is true, it means that the current understanding that the first human infections in Vietnam occurred in December 2003 needs revision.

    It would also confirm that Beijing knew of the earliest human infection, but did not report it to the WHO. Again, it would cast doubts about the integrity of scientific research disclosures in the mainland in an atmosphere where research depends on funding from the government.

    Another twist to the controversy was added when editors at the Journal said the researchers wished to withdraw their letter at the last minute, without assigning any reason. But that request came too late, and the letter was published in Thursday’s edition.

    The WHO’s office in China is understood to be seeking clarifications from China’s health ministry. “We want more information on exactly what happened, who this case was, what the possible source of infection was, where he was infected, the treatment - all the standard questions,” the spokesman was quoted as saying.

  4. NorthAmerica: Have you <b>ever</b> been bullish on U.S. equities, or are you just an eternal perma-bear?
  5. The point here is that this mutation is not "the one." This mutation killed its host(s) faster than it could spread. This mutation likely won't survive.

    The one to be afraid of is the mutation that can incubate in its host long enough as it spreads to other carriers, then and only then kill its host.