1. There are approximately 328 million people in the US. 2. The WHO estimates that 65-70% of the population will need immunity prior to reaching herd immunity. 3. There have been 28.5 million confirmed cases. (We know the real number is much higher.) 4. More than 40 million people have already been vaccinated. 5. We're administering approximately 1.7 million doses of the vaccine daily, and that number should ramp up as new vaccines come online. Just do the math. A 60 day timeframe may be a little aggressive, but a 90-120 day timeframe seems very realistic. I'm hopeful that we'll be able to get back to normal by the start of summer.
*US population is over 330M * 12 million have received both shots and 35 million have received 1 shot. * Herd immunity isn't the goal, it's a death count that will fall in-line with the common flu, at which point it will be very difficult politically to justify containment directives. * Key to success is vaccinating at-risk populations first, a key to lowering the mortality rate. It's not being followed, with teachers refusing to go back to work until they are vaccinated first and other unions making the same demands, while wealthy counties in some states are getting vaccinated before others. Once again, America is a shit show. To conclude, it's very optimistic to expect things to go back to normal by summer although, like you, I wish it was the case.
Very unlikely. The vaccine is not effective. I would say it takes 6-7 years for everything to be back to normal.
The world will not get to normal until the CDC/WHO and local governments send out the message that we no longer have to wear masks. That message will not be coming for years. YEARS! You are deluding yourself if you think otherwise. Masks and partial lockdowns and the suppression of freedoms is the new paradigm of living. All because people were too fucking stupid to wear masks properly. And COVID kills every thing it sees.
It is not that the vaccine is not effective. It is that the world is too fucking stupid to understand anything, because the world is buried in smartphones. Nobody has any self-reliance anymore. It all comes from the Internet, because the stupidification of the world is complete. Shit, we just landed the 3rd or 4th rover on Mars. Many many people in this world will celebrate it as being a triumph of science. Those same people will not realize that it is, in fact, the 3rd or 4th rover we've landed there. MORONS.
We'll see what happens. The US is contracted to purchase 600 million doses of vaccine from Pfizer & Moderna, and another 500 million doses from Johnson & Johnson, AstraZeneca, & Novavax once they get approved. My guess is that everyone in our country that wants the vaccine will be able to get it over the next 90-120 days. That should greatly reduce deaths and the rate of transmission. We may not be back to complete normalcy, but it should be a lot closer than where we are now.
Not to mention juveniles and young adults don't even really need to take it for their own protection. I get that's not how herd immunity works but the priority will be for those afflicted who make the bulk of the bad statistics.
Agreed. In basic theory, the case fatality rate should start falling dramatically over the next several weeks as more & more people from the at-risk categories get vaccinated. We should start seeing some glimmers of light towards the end of the tunnel.
You are on the right path, but... Only 255 MM above 18 y.o. And the daily vaccination will hit 2MM average in a week and J&J will step in from March. So the 60 days time frame is quite realistic, specially when the bad weather won't delay vaccinations and the feds will set up 100 giga sites. As long as we have enough vaccines Walgreens, CVS, etc. 3MM per day is very doable eventually.