The trouble with historical testing is, for the most part, it weighs everything equally. Averages for average minds. $SPX Aug, 2021:- Looks fine to me. Now Sept is another story.
That was the QE era with no inflation and no war. 12 months later it is a different story. I have to believe that the inflation prints are going to continue to soften, so the chart Q3-4 this year will look a bit different.
That was my other point that I forgot to include. How in good God's name (1st time I think I'm using the expression online - watch for the lightning) can the last 14 years or so since 2008 with QEternity in place be compared to say 1986 or 1954 or 2002 or .... or .... or ....? Can't.
You're not going to like my answer... Social media. I cannot even begin to think of how to thoroughly express my thoughts on why I feel that. It is just a feeling or intuition, somehow.
Today's price action should lead to an easy 0.40% gain overnight. Buy the cash close. Bought MNQ for the overnight drift higher.
Why are you not pushing the overnight drift higher tonight, Rick? Find some crystal ball that says GTFO?
Your biased, clouded, American, patriotic, mind is affecting your market performance and neutral, objective stance. All you want to see is the market going straight up, and every retiree and 401K account and mutual fund growing and growing. But the market doesn't necessarily move and jive like that every day. It can be part art, part science and more complicated and dynamic to trade and predict.