Hi 1a, I came across your journal thread (& methodology thread) yest & spent the next 4 hours reading through it, great threads & v enlightening. i admire your calmness/confidence in your long term strategy when you were printing a >$50k loss on your ETF trade! Also taking the hedge though trading it separately looks a great way to add to the bank whilst also lessening the damage when in drawdown. But most intriguing was the average down strategy, i have only been trading for a short while but have done a fair amount of research & the only averaging i see is positional traders scaling into positions when on side. You always get the same advice re averaging down - if your wrong & offside, then why would you increase your position? I guess its not for everyone but it does make a lot of sense to me. Do you know others who trade similarly using average down, & you decided to give it a go? How much testing did you do before going live / feeling comfortable with this way of trading? Also can you give us an idea as to how you are using PA to identify where to draw the fibs for your intraday strategy (where you wld enter/exit when trading this per your normal strategy with no fibs)? Its a shame you never finished your book/pdf doc- i was looking fwd to this as i trawled through the pages, & no doubt you wld have answered my q (also keen on learning more about the hedge trade.....similar to the main trade methodology but in other direction? approx 1/3 of the hedge). A previous poster already mentioned it appears you are waiting for a move to occur (often this is within 2 hours of the open), taking the 2nd move in a 'trend' (as ambiguous as this term is), & @ the pull back is the start of the fib (rt 100). Countertrend examples show you enter countertrend after a fairly big move, which you may enter at first opportunity i.e. as soon as it comes off the peaks of the retracement & the price range seems less, is ATR an indicator you may use here (despite it not meaning much)? Unfortunately the sample size of your intraday trades is so small this is as good/bad as i can speculate. You are a little mysterious about revealing anything about why you took an entry/exit, you repeatedly state "i cannot predict where price is going", & though that is true you obviously have a view else you would not have entered into the trade (relying on coin flip % win is not a valid reason to enter). Though if this reveals your edge then i understand why you would not divulge (you mentioned you wld in the book though). Any hints wld be appreciated, and sorry in advance for the newbie questions. Happy trading. r
^ Excellent questions. I promise I will address them all when I have time. And unlike most trading "gurus" you will encounter online, I will give precise and specific answers rather than vague and ambiguous fortune cookie nonsense. 3/26: No trades.
It is a contradiction to place a trade, and then get out because you have no way of knowing where price will go in the future. Right? The only way you can make money on a trade is if the price goes in the direction you bet... Knowing the future has nothing to do with making money...! Even though you are doing very well comparatively speaking, you should really break that out of your mindset..
It's not a contradiction. The only other reason to get out of a trade is because you know price is going to go the opposite way in the future. And if you can do that, you might as well enter with your entire account in the correct direction. If I could predict direction I would just enter positions in the correct direction with my entire account. But I cannot.