"The only way to trade with Fibonaccis" journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by 1a2b3cppp, Mar 6, 2010.

  1. 1/11:

    No trade.

    Which account statement did you want to see?
     
    #581     Jan 12, 2012
  2. 1/12:

    No open positions.
     
    #582     Jan 12, 2012
  3. Here are a few options for an upcoming retracement.

    [​IMG]

    It depends on how aggressive or conservative you want to be.

    If there is no retracement and price continues to go up, that is no problem, either. But we will deal with that when it happens.
     
    #583     Jan 12, 2012
  4. Thought we might be starting a retracement today with the gap down but price went up after that so back to waiting. Seems like the price to beat right now is $129.50 or so.
     
    #584     Jan 13, 2012
  5. trendo

    trendo

    The screenshot you posted shows an account balance of over 834,000. Based on your win rate, roughly what do you project to make by the end of 2012?
     
    #585     Jan 13, 2012
  6. kenwx23

    kenwx23

    Or I guess you can combine all of them and have a whole slew of potential fib buy levels.
     
    #586     Jan 13, 2012
  7. dv4632

    dv4632

    Yes, worldway does make a good point. Psyhcologically you want to avoid drawdown, but you need it if you want to get a larger position on with this method.

    On the hedging aspect I was wondering if it might be better to reduce the size of the hedge as your position goes farther into drawdown. If this method assumes that price is essentially random but that indexes have an upward bias over time, then the risk of further drawdown should get lower as the position goes farther and farther against you. Doesn't the assumed upward bias eventually become more likely to start to assert itself? This wouldn't be the case with individual stocks of course, but we're talking about indexes here. Just a thought I had...

    I don't know if I'd trade like this or not, even if I did have a large enough account. But it's an interesting strategy and the way it's carried out does seem to protect you against many of the usual dangers associated with martingaling. Hope you keep at it here because it's an entertaining journal.
     
    #587     Jan 13, 2012
  8. It depends on what the market does.

    If it steadily increases it will be different than if it chops back and forth, which will be different from if it does a 2008 style crash.

    Of course you can always follow this thread to see how I do in 2012 since I post everything in real time.
     
    #588     Jan 13, 2012
  9. Stock market closed, futures market open, watching the S&P stay in its same little range that it's been in for the last week.
     
    #589     Jan 16, 2012
  10. 1/17:

    No trades. Gap up, closed down, but still higher than the previous close.
     
    #590     Jan 17, 2012