"The only way to trade with Fibonaccis" journal

Do you even need the hedge?

On your intermediate term... how many times has your hedge saved a loss?

That might determine your cut-off point.

 

You are trading the range. Good.

With directional bias. Good, in that you are on the side of intrinsic value with inflation at your back.

Your advantage is in your decisions on magnitude of move to determine your Fibonacci placement.

My opinion.

 

The hedge is required because I cannot predict direction.

If I could predict direction I would go all in in the correct direction.

For positions that go immediately in my favor, the hedge reduces the total profit by a little bit. When they go against me, it increases my total profit in the end. Hedging allows me to hold more SPY which results in more dividends. And it's easier psychologically.

 

Maybe I misunderstood. You short SPY as well?

 

I use SH as a proxy for short SPY.

 

12/8:

SPY: $4,270.00
Hedge: -$1,034.00

Net for this trade:

--------------
$3,236.00

 

12/9:

SPY: $5,950.00
Hedge: -$1,850.00

Net for this trade:

--------------
$4,100.00

 

I'm not trying to be snide or anything, just curious. What is the point of these daily $ amount postings? Once you establish a position is it really necessary to update when you are just buying and holding?

 

I post all buys and sells in real time and post updates every day so people don't accuse me of making stuff up or giving BS numbers the way most of the scammers and "gurus" do. With everything updated in real time you can check the timestamps and verify everything I post is accurate and correct.

I also want this journal to be more entertaining to read and more accurate than ones where people just randomly post crap like "oh yeah, today I made $500" and the people reading are like "ok. So? How did you do it?"

Or the people who only post winning trades after the fact.

Since I give everything in real time, if a trade becomes a loser I can't lie about it because you can't go back and edit posts here (after the initial 15 minute window or whatever it is).

And it keeps me honest. When I have 5 figures of drawdown, I post that every day, too.

 

I think posting an update every day is also interesting because it enables us to see but also "feel" the trade. It is easy then to figure out if you could use this strategy regarding your risk aversion and other things like that, how 123 reacts to some situation...