Second trade: In the same downswing that closed out my first trade, price went back up and then retraced again so I started buying (green circles) and sold when it went back up to the 0% line (red circle). You'll see price went up to 1140 to make an afertnoon high and then started to retrace down. I ended up NOT taking a trade here because it was already getting to be late in the afternoon and I thought that the range of this last swing was so large that I didn't think price would have enough time to make it back up to the top before the market closed. Lucky for me I didn't take it because I would've had to close my trade out for a loss as the market closed.
Did you place your exit orders as soon as you entered your positions. If so, you would think one would get a fill there, no?
I don't get how this has anything to do with Fibs. Those retracement didn't happen anywhere near fib lines, and it wouldn't matter if they did or not. All you are betting on is a retracement, period. This doesn't prove or disprove fibs. Your results would be the same if you picked up shares every 5%, or prime numbers, or the square root of your mom's birthday. What we are seeing is your ability to pick when a stock is going to retrace. And so far, that's pretty good; you're 3 for 3 today. You chose to go in twice and they both retraced, and you chose to sit one out that didn't retrace. Not picking on you, but I see flaws in this method of proof. Why don't you just teach us your secret of how to know if a stock is going to retrace or not?
Yeah, well not INSTANTLY, but within a minute or so. I do everything manually. It was there well before price got there, however. I dunno.
I never claimed that price reverses at fib lines. That's what magical hocus pocus fib gurus do. I explained this in the other thread. As I mentioned in the other thread there is nothing special about fibs: they have no predictive power. I simply took an already existing strategy and replaced the normal entry points with fib lines so I could say I have a profitable strategy that uses fibs. I simply said that if price reverses at fib lines (like the fib gurus claim), that this method will be profitable (this was explained in the first post of the other thread to which I linked). I cannot predict price or where it will reverse and I certainly don't think there's anything special about fibs. Price has just as much of chance of reversing at 38% as it does at 37% or at 41% or any other %.
I read the other thread, I posted there too. I'm on your side that fib lines are hokum. Even if they are not, there is no way to use them to predict the future. I would want to see someone explain fibs conditionally, something like this: "after a big move, if the retracement crosses the first fib line then odds are it will cross the second" or "once price crosses and moves away from a fib line, make a trade and set your target for the next fib line it's heading towards" I've actually tried that 2nd one, and found it's no better than a guess. The only thing I could see using fib lines for is gapping your stops to them. Like once price crosses the 1st fib line, move your stop to BE. Once price crosses the 2nd fib line, move your stop to the 1st fib line. But it remains to be proven if this is any better than a random number. I still want you to tell us your secret for knowing when price is going to retrace in the first place.
<<<<<<<< you can use price action sequence to see the turning points here is a video of price action sequence. the link to the video is near the bottom of page on left side. http://www.trading-strategies.info/node/17
Here's a live trade I have on right now I have 4 contracts currently open (1 at the first retracement and 3 at the second retracement = 4 total) with 5 more ready to be purchased if price goes down to the next retracement. An exit order sitting at 100% retracement with 9 contracts (which is how many I'll have if price retraces that far) and my target profit order with 4 contracts (how many I currently have) sitting back up at the 0% retracement line. Obviously I change the quantity there depending on how many contracts I have open.
Another currently open trade. Today has bene like one giant uptrend with barely even any retracements.