Journal of my method I discuss here: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=192348 Friday's trades (chart: green arrows = buy, red arrows = sell): http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2756583 Friday's PnL (PnL screen): http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2756589
I don't know how else to say it but your profit appears to be completely random. Would you have shown us this if, after buying @ 1133.75 (your initial fill?), ES collapsed 3 points lower? These levels mean nothing. You can draw a dozen fib lines on a chart and eventually you're going to see prices cross those levels. Does that imply that those prices were "pre-ordained" by your levels?
Yes. Well, at 38%, 50% and 62% (or whichever price is closest when there's not an exact match). I average down with this method. I'm sure there will be lots of haters and nay-sayers telling me how bad this is, but with properly defined risk and stop losses there is nothing wrong with averaging down. I know where the hard stop is for every trade before I begin.
Are you asking if I would have posted a losing trade? Of course. I'm sure you'll see some losers as this journal continues. Perhaps you missed the point of the other thread (the one I linked to). I never claimed there is anything magical about fibs. I have simply modified a trading method to include fibs because I wanted to post the first (and only) way to trade with fibonaccis that actually works, and has all the entry, exit, and buy/sell levels established ahead of time. The main point is that I don't care if price reverses at a specific fib level or not. As long as it reverses somewhere (past my first entry, of course) I will make money. This is all explained in the other thread.
Ok sorry about this but you're getting the MS Paint version today because my computer isn't cooperating today. First trade: I drew a green line where the fib lines were drawn. It was the down swing this morning. The red circles are sell shorts, and the green circle is the cover.