Maybe if you live in Communist Russia. That sounds like "party speak." You're so off base with that one I don't even know where to begin. Um... I was talking about logical correlations vs. fallacious arguments. You're talking about mathmatical correlation as it applies to trading. I'm not sure if you really don't understand that those are completely different, or if you're just trying to troll me. Wrong again. JH has "been in the trading game for years" and, for some reason, "has lots of followers" yet he is neither consistent nor profitable. Well, since you've done nothing but post unrelated and fallacious arguments, I'd say if you could prove me wrong even once then you'd be doing pretty well. I think you're just trolling me now. Your arguments in your last post were so off base that unless you're actually as crazy as JH, you've got to be trolling me. Come on. Are you serious? Because I explained this in the first post. Fibs are dumb and so are the doublespeaking gurus who teach them. There is no logic behind suggesting that they get applied to the finacial markets. That being said, this thread demonstrates the only way to trade with fibonacci lines in a straight forward manner. There are no bullshit excuses, no double speak, no after-the-fact BS explanations of why price reversed at one of the lines one time and another one another time. Before you even enter the trade, everything is exactly mapped out: your entries, your stop loss, and your profit target. Surely as a confused trader you can see why that is infinitely more useful then the slippery double speak BS spewed forth by other "gurus." Have you ever tried to read a post by JH or PorfLogic explaining their methods (I know those guys don't use fibs, but same concept)? A bunch of fucking doublespeak, confusion, and overly-complicated crap that doesn't even make sense, and if you quesiton them on it, they get ultra-defensive (which is textbook scam artist behavior). This thread is the opposite of that. There's no doublespeak. There's no ambiguity. There's no bullshit. There's no riddles. There's no after-the-fact excuses. To be honest, this method would work even if you used other levels instead of the fibonacci levels, the only difference is I wanted to give fib traders some hope so for this thread I chose to use the levels they love so much. I didn't see you ask me that. Yes I trade with real money. Do you want me to post a screenshot or something? Will that help?
Why do you bother trying to convince ppl that will never believe you no matter what? Just agree to disagree and move on. You could tell them excessive heat has nothing to do with violence, give them stats from the FBI, and they would call BS. You seem to like AP. I do too. I have met and talked with Tim Morge, he is a stand up guy in my book. Much of Gann and AP are based on market geometry concepts. Tim told me that the Kennedy family brokers used AP to make a lot during the Great Depression. Can I prove that? No, but I am pretty good judge of character and Tim is a good guy. The important thing is don't believe anyone. Validate it for yourself. It's you money and your responsibility.
konviction, you seem to be having difficulty discerning bullshit from that which is legit. I suggest you read this thread, which will help give you some clues to easily identify "gurus" who are actually scammers that are full of shit. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=174098 It's funny the people who get called out by name in that thread. And then go read the wiki page on fallicious arguments that I linked for you so you stop making mistakes in your reasoning and then we can continue our discussion.
I tried to help him, but I guess there is no hope. Dont mention AP here, he'll start a new thread saying AP only works after the fact, or something of that nature lol. Id love to meet him.
lol. You tried to "help me" by posting fallacious arguments and hokey studies. Go troll someone else's thread. I have no problem discussing anything as long as the involved parties stick to valid arguments. Wanting something really badly doesn't make it true. Neither does a bunch of people all doing something. If you read that wikipedia page I've mentioned over and over, you would know that by now. AP = Andrews Pitchforks? If it works for you consistently then that's awesome. But this thread is about fibs, not pitchforks. You can start your own thread demonstrating the predictive nature of pitchforks.
You still dont understand do you??... What I'm trying to get through to you is PERCEPTION becomes reality. F--k the facts, or wether the two are related. Am I off base, or do you just not understand? Have his results been audited, and shown to his followers?. How many more analogies do you want? I've given you plenty of examples. Why does everything have to have a correlation to it? Cant you just trade what you see like everyone else and not ask pointless questions? No, it could just be a demo account. But let me guess, you dont trade using fibs? .
Thisd is just my experience, not based on fact: Fib retarcemnts are NOT magic, or any other hocus pocus, however it has been my experience that while they don't always work they DO work more often the they should, if the prices were truly random. Now, anybody who says that it's because of "natural patterns of life" or any of that garbage is talking out of their ass. I'm of the opinion that Fib retracements, like all othe tech analysis is a self-fulfilling prophecy. That is, yes it works, but it only works because a lot of people think it works. Let's imagine that there is a well-known, and well-accepted market behavior that states that when a stock goes up 5% in one day, it must then go up another 5% by the end of the next day (obviously, I'm just making this up....you could use anything here as an example). Obviously, there is no magical force making this happen....but if enough people believe it, truly, then sure enough, anytime a stock hits 5%, you can be pretty sure that it will reach 10% by the next day. After all, if everybody has their nice little fib lines on their screen that tells them exactly where the support and resistance should be, then that is where support and resistance WILL be. And I think that enough people believe in fib numbers to make them actually true. Therefore, they in fact, DO exist, if only because people think they do.
Well if its on wikipedia it MUST be true. I guess we can get the mods to close this thread sense I'm the only one really posting anything. In conclusion : 1. Op hates fibs 2. Op can't trade fibs successfully 3. Op probably tried to trade fibs in the past but failed 4. Op fails to realize that fibs have been around for years and years, and will continue to be here. If they failed to work, people wouldn't trade them. Period 5. I have failed in showing Op "The light", and why fibs work in every market and on any tf. kon
Don't even try . He doesn't understand. If there is not a direct mathematical realationship "it cant work".
I would take just one valid analogy. The rest of your questions don't make sense. "Everything" doesn't "need" a correlation, but if you're going to attempt to correlate cause and effect, make sure it is valid to the rest of the discussion. Well, I have a Scottrade account for swing trading. Do they even offer practice accounts? I certainly don't daytrade with Scottrade because their commission and fills suck for that, but for days to months of holding, they work very well. Their list of logical fallacies is correct. If you don't like wikipedia, go to the library and pick up a book on logic, or a university bookstore and look for the textbooks from the Logic 101 classes. Or go to amazon and search for "introduction to logic." You've just committed ANOTHER logical fallacy: Just because some stuff on wikipedia isn't true doesn't mean that none of it is true. I can see the concept of valid arguments is beyond your understanding, so I'm done discussing it. *sigh* 1. I said fibs are voodoo science when applied to trading markets. I then posted a profitable method that uses them anyway and is more clear than any other "fib method." 2. You're drawing conclusions from nothing (more logical fallacies). I can trade the method in this thread just fine. 3. n/a. 4. "If they didn't work, people wouldn't use them" is ANOTHER logical fallacy. 5. You haven't shown any light, you've only argued using fallacious arguments. I thought, as someone studying fibs, that you could contribute to this thread, but all you've done is throw invalid and unrelated arguments all over the place, so I'm done responding to your replies unless you can construct a valid argument. Feel free to follow along, however, as this method will prove to be more profitable than what you're paying $149 a month for on that guy's website. I trade using a method very similar to the one I presented in this thread. I modified it a bit to include fibs in this thread in an attempt to show a method that uses fibs that is actually profitable, clear, and concise (as opposed to the vague bullshit that "gurus" teach).