Sounds great. As it happens, I am waiting for 2009 to make discounted purchases of 2nd hand luxury automobiles and penthouses. Sorry but I don't see any intrinsic right to high residual values of discretionary luxury consumer goods. The top 5% had it easy, and now we're meant to cry over their fate?
If you're able to properly assess the ultimate risk to the FDIC then you're far more perceptive than I. Here's a rule of thumb I use in options. ATM premium is almost always too expensive. OTM premium is almost always too cheap. Here's a comparison. Writing auto insurance is a no-brainer. There's zero chance that every car you insure will have an accident this year. Storm insurance is the complete opposite. If one home gets hit a bunch of OTHER homes will also sustain damage. Hence there is SYSTEMATIC risk in writing storm policies. This crisis is a storm. The FDIC works great if just one rogue institution goes under. A car accident so to speak. Try applying that risk model to the tsunami of multiple bank failures.
I couldn't agree more. I don't know how it became market valuation acceptable to price Iowa farm land at 3k an acre and Upper East Side co-ops at $3000 per square foot.
Too soon to tell, but it could turn out to be the classic situation of the body being too stupid to realize the brain is already dead...
It sure could be. As a trader I'll play this as RTC re-dux. Until it proves worse-and since traders only get judged by the market's prices I'll care little about housing data. After the RTC's debt issuance home prices continued to be horrifically weak. For years. In fact it's all so similar. Back then we survived. I'll stay positioned with that outcome as the probable odds play until something "un-1991'ish" happens. Then it's Katie bar the door.