The Oil Bottom Trade

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by apex82, Nov 19, 2006.

What is your thought on oil?

Poll closed Jan 18, 2007.
  1. Oil is going to $40! What are you smokin?

    7 vote(s)
  2. This is a great trade, I would risk 10% on it

    18 vote(s)
  3. I dont have a clue

    6 vote(s)
  1. I just thought I would start an oil bottom thread with these calls becoming more popular on ET. Not only is it a bottom call but it is also a way to trade it, which is the only way I think calls should be made. Take the trade at your own risk. I personally will not be taking this trade as it does not meet the requirements of my trading plan. However, I think its a great trade and will most likely work out. If not, its just part of the game and the stop and reverse trade will definately be a huge winner.

    The trade is go long on a retest of Fridays low 58.15.
    Add on 57.10 area

    Stop at 56.71

    Profit target 1 is 63.85
    Profit target 2 is 66.85
    Breakeven stop and let runners go for 70.50+

    Risk approx. 1.50
    Reward approx 8-12

    Note that I may adjust profit targets by .20-.70 if new lows are made.

    I attached a chart for visualization of the trade.
  2. i think there's more room on the downside apex, everythin' points at lower prices. maybe we get a bounce and your trade could work out but hell not to 63, nevermind 66.
  3. Ok, crude retested friday's low and rallied immediately. The trade is now active, and you should be long 1 unit....
  4. im long oil, because it only looks like a big selloff on the short term time frame

    on a 5 yr weekly chart, it is a nice healthy pullback to a trendline,

    it is a good market hedge

    and all it takes is iran or something to totally see the thing take off
  5. My feeling there could be a test of 50 before it bounces!
  6. 50 price or 50 SMA/EMA

    and in what, the spot or the current futures contract?
  7. I agree, its at its max point before invalidating this major S zone. I think it holds here until it gets a news catalyst. Im just pointing out how you can trade this amazing risk reward without blowing out. I think its hilarious how people make these calls and say its never getting above so and so price but never show you why or how you can trade it. The reason for a major call is to make money, plain and simple.
  8. Well it looks like we got that news catalyst today. I wonder if anyone thinks its coincidence that it happend after hitting my support level to the tick... not in the slightest. I see it happen day after day. Next resistance at 62.33 and then 64.00. If it can get above that, were off to the races.
  9. oops ... looks like the API #'s were not so good ?

    bloomberg has this headline

    -Oil Falls on Report Showing U.S. Oil, Gasoline Supply Gains-
  10. ...Update on trade.....

    Well as expected, oil continues to grind up. I hope some of you were able to realize the potential in this call. Here is the scenario at this point. I see crude moving up to the first pink zone, 62.30 area, pulling back to retest lows maybe a wash out and then an explosion to the upside. Its on the right track, it may just keep moving up through the zones. This is a major S level overlapped with daily structure all into a .50 zone.

    Here is the updated chart
    #10     Nov 28, 2006