the Nut Trade in stock (comparable to the Nut hand in poker)

I trade vol and var. Optionality. Most positions are 2-4 legs with some equity hedge. My avg hold is just under four days. FWIW, I am up 14% for 2014 because I've been trading and not posting entries that never see the light.

 

You are a very bottom line guy, and i respect that. My kind of bottom line go beyond your what-you-see-winning right now kind of bottom line, that upon completion of 10 call, i will ask you again this bottom line question ( i did asked 3 people) , that i believe as much as you are in conflict with me most of the time, you will have the tendency to answer what i would expect you to. But just a head up, it goes like this..

Given that 2 guys trading 10 winning trades in a week, both gain good profit for the week. How can you tell based on potential assessment of which one will most likely to still survive 1 year from now ?

Is it the guy that can call the Nut trade ahead of time and win accordingly, or is it the guy that when you ask him to do so, he would say "are you crazy?, there is no such thing"... whether the nut trade is formed silently in your head, speaking out loud, or thoughtfully written, it must show its potential via the highest certainty assessment by that trader, and showing its merits through the movement of the market accordingly afterward. But for the sake of public opinion, it must be outspoken.

 

Newwurldmn's arbitrage trade for tomorrow: goog will go up.

 

I've been logging twitter movement since opening yesterday.

1. open pop to 60.8 high from 59 area yesterday .. appropriate for taking profit of base early
2. retreat to 57.38 then go back to 58.8 area .. bonus range t/p when you can close to base
3. retreat 2nd time deep to 55.78 area, then move back to 57.38 end of day .. deep in bonus range then back to this area.. it was high at 58.75 after opening today for a good opportunity to take profit again for bonus 2nd time.
I will say to exit the bonus again at base entry of 59 or close to it today, as Bonus entry was accumulated pretty Ok, not having to wait much further to the target. We 'll reconvene again for the medium term trade of BUY next week. As for the execution with the efficient and safe manner with Base Bonus system, profit should already be in place, and this call re-emphasize the significance of efficient and safe execution level of base bonus system. As for the Must touch, it must be revised for very short term to 59.2-60 today, and a new one for the medium term next week. So i must admit i miss the Must touch by around 2 points in this very short term trade due to the tick count being off, and this will prove valuable down the road as i adjust to and quantify the stock tick count (off by ratio of 1:3.5 compare to forex, due to 7 hours trading in stock vs. 24 hours in fx) especially in short term play, but the Pullback force has shown its merits upon rebouncing to profitable level, and i think this is the number 1 crucial component as it is what lead to consistent profit (more or less, safe or aggressive) based on pullback force analysis.

My final note, if you strictly follow the safe and efficient level of execution with base bonus system, you will find it is very safe and stable with significant less heat when combine with the nut analysis, with the must touch considered as the reference point for early exit. It is a no brainer to take profit when you are capable of upon reasonable profit level, but it take total commitment, discipline and wisdom to say: take profit when you can, not when you must. It take me a while to say that without reservation, and i truly and genuinely hope that you guy will do the same, because the side effect of not doing that is a complete destruction of your mentality if market reverse before you make up your mind to take profit, i had my share of this before, and do not wish that to happen to myself and to others ever again.

 

TWTR touch the revised target today at 60.05 so we are done with this trade BUY TWTR very short term. It turn out to be a bit longer than i expect, but this is something for me to adjust to stock tick count. At this point i do not have a decisive the nut trade yet, but i do have my eye on TWTR, YELP, DDD, NFLX, and will make call accordingly upon them touching my awaiting entry.
In addition, until i am absolutely decisive on Must touch target on stock after 10 calls, i will come back to using the term Must Touch on target, in the mean time i 'll be using Exit Reference term and we will be focusing on the safe and efficient execution of the Base Bonus. But realisticly as long as we experience good pullback upon making entry, whether it is base or bonus entry, and looking at reasonable good profit, then target that i posted will act as exit reference point.

 

I've been putting DDD (3ds system) on radar for the short, but it continue to drop before i get a chance to send out. At this point, will switch to Buy for short term , as i will make a call for the nut trade on Buy short term DDD :

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BUY Short term Trended

Base: 82.8
Bonus: 77-73
Exit reference: 88
Stop: 68

Note: We still wait for a short if market swing upward to 98-102 range, will make the nut short sell here, which capture short term buy within this week.

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Also, i ve been developing a platform to communicate with the Nut trade calling more visually and being able to capture the "feel" of it via poker card simulation. You guy can watch a little clip here that i 've done so far: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1eQArLaL0Qg&sns=em , (the left browser is for mobile phone, right browser is for tablet/pc with bigger screen)
Later in the day, i will post a link to see it realtime with a small chatroom for additional real time discussion, and be able to follow it real time with my calling in addition to posting at elite trader forum.
Another thing is : Instead of making the bet , anybody here are willingly to use their stock account to trade 100-300 shares on my nut call, it will be very realistically reflect my call with the following condition:
1. If the position got stop, i will take the loss and pay via paypal (you have to trust that i will honor my word for it - and i will work with the volume you feel comfortablely doing in this manner vs. 100-300 shares)
2. if the position win, i ll take 10% of profit
In my opinion, this would be better than you guy making the call for my bluffing as originally conceived, as it realistically reflect through an actual real trade. I will want to do this to different user stock account for every call for the next 7 calls left in stock. Please pm me if you want to volunteer, and i will confirm the user via this thread after confirmed.

 

This is another smaller gapping on that reach short term target of 88 as it is at 88.15 at the moment since end of day price of 85.63 yesterday, and gapping upward to 86.5 after opening. Medium term this nut BUY call still apply , especially from 76-72 area if reached the next 2-3 weeks. I will make the final modification upon reaching this price, and with the more real time web page, we 'll communicate a lot more effectively. As for short term, this call is done for now on DDD.

 

But for now, a preset of 2 your cards, and 4 opened card of flops + turn. The river card will display depend on Current market price, that when combined with all the cards according to poker game , you can determine for yourself how good the card is now, to begin trading or not, based on your 2 cards and other potential card on table.

Upon touching Base entry, the river card will change to a different card that reflect the 2nd best card potentially on the tablet, where upon touching the bonus it will show another different card , that you find to be the Nuts hand.

Each call will have different card setting (which make it quite dynamically captivating) that i determine to be the level of certainty CLARITY that the market is presenting. It can go as high as Royal Straight Flush for highest clarity that reflect the ultimate Nuts hand in poker.

P.S If you encounter any bug, and any suggestion, please chat with me on chat room or Pm via elitetrader private messaging. General announcement will be done via Twitter / Elite Trader in case server is down. This is a development server, so it remain to be seen how reliable it is upon many simultaneous connections.

 

Due to ET strict policy of sending link that regarded as advertisement , those that interest in monitoring real time the nut analysis calling in stock, please PM me for the link. I will continue to post the nut analysis both on ET and this link .