You're obviously selling something. Now, you can't quantify the R/R (heat-taken, not arbitrary stops) on this FB short, which is reflected by the 56-6x range. It's vendor-speak. There is no application of conditional probability here. When I have the nut flush, you don't.
You are right on not being able to quantify the heat taken, especially on the hot momentum of FB has been moving up. It is a different thing on the mental dealing part. It is easy for someone who not attach to the risk taken to speak clearly, which is in my case. But i can assure you that i had taken much heat in trading experience on my part . I am not a vendor of any kind, just speaking of what i see on the selling pressure side. I congratulate you on your BUY that you did since you seem to relate that to the Flush nut, at least we are thinking on the same page. But if you look for a place to take profit, i would say partially from here to 62 before end of this month. There are thing that i am sure you can see clearly more i do, but in this area that i see of FB, there are selling pressure from here to 62 strongly. There is no way my word can resonate as loud as billion USD pushing it up, but there are invisible factor that drive it up or down that i spent much time decoding, just as gravity force that pull us invisiblely. Matter of fact, i name the pullback force " Gravity" just to reflect this nature.
Hi everyone from each forum that i posted, I am sorry that i was barging in and get off to the wrong foot. Please allow me to redo it. I have been decoding forex market since 2002 (2000-2001 i do stock and e-mini sp500), you can say that i have my share of misery and heat taking since then. Until recently that i have found a very high degree of consistency that i seek through trial and error and extra feeling to the same signal set up the past 12 years. WHat make it unique is the logical relation between them that i am not to disclose yet. I 've been decoding both the push and pull force in the market, and find the pullforce to be more consistent and precise at the target that i can pinpoint for expected pullback. Though it is perceived to be safer to trade with push as it mostly trended, but for me personally, the pullback has become my primary focus. the good news is there are trended pull force in addition to the against-trend pull force which i differentiate each of them clearly. As for the facebook, it is against trend pullforce, and the pressure appear from the area that indicated on the sell. Two characteristics about this pull force analysis is: 1. the consistency on directional move that it will go down/up depend which way the pullback, meaning it will go down/up later once the signal is in place to begin the pullback. 2. once on track for pullback, it will pullback to certain target that i indicate on the must touch price. Due to the unique logical setup that i had, i can pin point this rather precise, and according to my experience, it is enough for me to say "must touch" (on stock, index i have to compensate a bit due to its cut off time, not 24 hours like forex) the standard that i set for the consistency is quite high, i am like the people with OCD who are very picky and obsessed with cleanliness, where i have OCD with detail and precision of the analysis, and always ask why , how? until i no longer ask about that detail. If you see those mad scientist spent all the time in the lab with some projects in their head, constantly thinking, well that 's me and the lab is the market chart (composed of 32 small charts panel that you can find from realtick software that i paid probably total of more than 80K in fee alone since then at about 500/month). You can say that i have no life, but i had my share of life enough not to feel pity about it. But my goal has always been about the absolute sureness that i symbolically call the nut. And this is the first time recently that i truly feel that way, and this is the time that i feel excited. Finally i am experiencing the kind of stable earning that a salaried person would, but alot more in my ambition. And if you would please allow me , i would present the nut trade 10 times on each instrument type that i will analyze when opportunity present itself, it would give me an true reflection on where i am in accuracy and consistency externally. It is almost like i take all that time to get to my ph.d, and you guy are the one gonna give me the diploma, not any university. I realized that my barging in has caused negative reaction, especially i might have sound arrogant, boastful when speaking right onto the nut part, and it is my fault, and i will make it fun via the calling the bluff part soon enough.
I also did a re-evaluation on the timing of making the nut call on this thread, and decided that it would best be done after perfecting and successful hit target on the x2 model that i am working on in forex as it would create a solid foundation to push further on the nut calling. I think i am a little ahead of myself on trying to do both at the same time. So i will resume this thread upon better timing of completing the x2 model. Thank you for your attention thus far, and i'll be back.
Hi fellow traders, I just want to briefly drop in and talk real time about the Base and Bonus entry system combined with the Nut analysis as facebook is moving accordingly. As for the protocol, Bonus is 2-5 times volume of Base, Bonus is to be taken profit multiple times as it is in safe zone after initial risk is absorbed by Base. In the example of Facebook, according to the protocol, as bonus already accumulate at larger volume at 58-62, whatever you already entered, you can begin take profit as it drop to Base or a bit before Base as long as you are happy with profit with Bigger volume on Bonus, and re-enter again if market rebound (still in safe zone of selling) and take profit again. This is what it meant by taking profit multiple time on Bonus as it is in bonus range. However at this point, if you decide to let it ride further beyond 55.50 at the moment, it is sound management that you take 1/2 size of bonus for profit, and let the other half ride along with the Base. The Base function is mainly to capture market frequently if it run early, absorb initial risk , and in case market touch bonus price, base is then mainly for break even/win little to target since we already make the bulk of profit on the Bonus. For those who don't like to manage in such layered manner, then you can just let it ride all to final target at Must touch. However always take profit partially and gradually as it ride to target. It is best that i explain these detail in real time now as market moving along accordingly, so later anybody who find the base bonus to fit your trading style can adapt it well soon enough. In summary, a good analysis must be executed with a well balanced consistent entry system, otherwise, inconsistency will occur due to mental mistake. If you guy watch Tony Romo quarterbacking, then you know what i mean in heated crunch time as he tend to not follow protocol for safe play of Running the ball when leading points (just as we are in profiting zone) . He simply did not consistently execute the ball handling plan and fall into mental mistake, even though he is capable of throwing perfect throw. I designed this system to execute with the Nut analysis on pullback as its advantage is on the correctness of pullback direction and must touch target, where entry must be managed in such manner of base bonus entry to consistently take advantage of the analysis. But for the sake of true accuracy of the Nut, it must go according to what i say to be qualified as the Nut, but if you go 1/2 way , you already profiting handsomely with base bonus system. If you plan to trade for years to come, then you must stick with it like "live by the rule, die by the rule". You will find that Base will relieve much of your frustration due to missing action as market run early, though profit would not be much volume, but at least you got something so that you will be less likely to get frustrated and chase market. Just a head up, upon me engaging deeper into stock market analysis and with you guy partially or fully embracing it, i will be able to call the Nut trade on weekly basis as i look into different stocks that you guy throw at me, i will do so on weekend as I am quite focused on my main trading in Forex/Gold market on weekday, especially the X2 model at the moment.
Hi everybody, another note, as for a full controlled taking profit for the whole base/bonus series, reaching lowest 53.4 area yesterday for FB would be something i considered as reasonable. As FB reaching some short term support around this area, it has a bit of bounce today, but still well within the trade series profitability as it stand at 54.2 as of now. I want to clarify further the most crucial component of the nut trade prior to more analysis of other stocks . 1. The directional pull back of up/down is the Nut 2. the Must Touch area is considered as landing area of the Pullback is also the Nut, however you can take profit a bit before this area if you ride the whole entry serires or manage accordingly with the Base Bonus protocol. 3. The trade entry price is devised according to early/good entry to take advantage of the pullback that will occur later, this is the nut-capable, with focused on the strongest pressure that would ignite the pullback. It best be entered in layers with progressive larger volume in bonus range to reduce the heat endured mentally upon price touching those layers and it will do the job of being a well balanced entry system. just a side note, as crazy as it may sound and against risk managing, but putting a stop loss upon expecting a sure pullback would do more damage than good in some cases. If anyone has a stock in mind, please pm me, otherwise, i 'll randomly pick out from active stock that fit the nut analysis in preparation of the next call that i will do on weekend at this point. My plan is to do 10 such calls on different stocks to solidify the Nut trade that would coincide with my plan on 10 calls on each category of forex, gold, stock, index. This initial call on FB is a glimpse of what to expect from my part. In term of preparation prior to making such calls, i am capable to do it with ease and frequency. If the market present its weakness in short, medium, long term, i will see its pullback potential and assess its certainty level of up to the Nut. It took me long and enduring time, but I've never lost focus on the path to reach the silky smooth stability in trading via this combination of : the nut analysis + well balanced entry system + resilient, durable mentality . In my opinion, anything short of this would still result in instability down the road. P.S I know my posts sometimes are long, as i would be grateful for bearing with me, but this probably the last time i would talk much about all the aspect around my attempt to solidify the Nut trade in stock. Upcoming on weekend basis, i will be brief via just number with any brief real time followup if needed. on weekday i 'll focus on my own trading in fx and gold, and complete the x2 model at this point. Also, after the third call in stock, calling my bluff fun part would be in effect.
If you want some credibility, post your live trades on FB, play money or real. Don't tell us afterwards that you shorted at the beginning of a big down day, but post live entry within a few minutes thereby giving honest credibility.
Hi bry, If you follow closely the timeline between 12/19 to 12/23, then you will see some gap on your saying about what you are saying in term of me posting live a few minute within trade. But regards trading FB stock, i was being upfront that i trade fx and gold only, and while discussing with drownpruf , i did say : "You are right on not being able to quantify the heat taken, especially on the hot momentum of FB has been moving up. It is a different thing on the mental dealing part. It is easy for someone who not attach to the risk taken to speak clearly, which is in my case." But i can assure you the heat i take in forex and gold on daily basis is equivalent of what you would expect in stock. For now, just consider me as an apprentice analyst getting familiar with analyzing stock. Having credibility or not, let make it depend on the level of accuracy that i state on 10 call total. But from my opinion, i 've done ok so far on the first call that i don't trade on. What i truly want to see now is how universally applicable it is to other financial instrument (including stock) that i have decoded in forex market. You are entitled to your opinion in anyway, and i respect that and perfectly understand your point and do agree with you on my must have real trading with the analysis to feel the heat as an influential factor in trading. However, I am more of in the exploring mode in stock market, and i am not here to raise any controversy, or trying to gain short lived false credibility that you are hastily assuming, and get distracted from my main trading.
"However, I am more of in the exploring mode in stock market, and i am not here to raise any controversy, or trying to gain short lived false credibility that you are hastily assuming, and get distracted from my main trading." Ha. I am hastily assuming. You can really read my mind, or decode it, man! You the greatest!
Hi Bry, War of words only lead us down to the destructive path, which happen quite often nowadays in forum/commenting section (especially cnn) . I will take it as i don't have your vote on credibility hearing day when i complete 10 calls since i don't trade stock, but capable of calling the nut analysis on it. It take me 13 years to make such call, and 1 minute from you to hastily trying to discredit this call on facebook and pushing your argument even as i told upfront that i don't trade stock, and i won't bother asking you to tell me how many day difference from the first day i call the short on Facebook til the day of you said big drop and assuming i only start saying it on day of big drop, not before when facebook is still going up from 55. For now, you can rest assure that no credibility shall be granted, nor i will seek it as i don't trade stock yet, and let's make peace on that, and allow me to focus back on what i am here to attempt. I shall pause conversing here regarding this with due respect, and will begin looking into other stocks this weekend. A happy new year of 2014 to you, and may prosperity be with your account.