Yes there were. Concerning the state of supply at that point in the market and how certain categories of participant would predictably trade next. I'll give some pointers on this. First, it would be helpful to know what has happened in the past in a similar condition. I would suggest creating a historical database of intraday market data for the instrument you trade, and sorting it according to various parameters. You need to obtain the data, and create a way of sorting and organising it logically. You can then start to see similar conditions, and compare like with like. So I could ask what does the ES typically do in the last 30 minutes of the session when we are X from a high (volatility dependent), down on the day, and some other supporting conditions are in force (to do with both the prior action say from lunchtime EST onwards and the location in the bigger cycle). I'll pick an example at random from my historical database for this sort of query. I can produce a 1 minute chart for you. The date is October 15th 2007. Visually alone you will see the similarities. Going back on a daily chart, you will see similarities also with the condition in force and the market continuing below the low the following day. This isn't about visuals, it is about underlying conditions and the prices / quantities players are willing and able to transact at any given time. Prices and times of course play a factor, and I'd suggest specialising in one market and getting familiar with the historical conditions, repeating occurrences, try to logically deduce and reason why X is more likely to happen then not happen given supporting parameters. This knowledge can later be applied to other markets, using the same approach. So there are a few questions we can ask which might be of assistance: -is price action alone sufficient to predict future prices to a high degree of accuracy? -how do we consider time, if at all? -do we consider volume to be relevant? why? what does it represent? -could there be benefit in organising and categorising prior market data to look for repeating conditions? -do we need more information than just what we can see visually - time and sales data either in raw form or presented in a chart - ie should we be doing some sort of analysis based on how traders are positioned etc, and how can we quantify that? -how players are positioned - to what degree does this influence how the market will progress next? is there predictive value here? -are some players "more equal" than others due to size, access to information, etc and if so should we respect their participation (to follow perhaps but not trade against)? -do some players make predictable decisions and can we exploit this for profit? Some starting points. I just wanted to give an alternative viewpoint to the one which says "price is random" and "I trade as if price cannot be predicted". It is possible under certain conditions to predict the next N (minutes|seconds|microseconds) with a high degree of accuracy, or the next N ticks if you prefer. We have HFT guys predicting inside of seconds and very short term trades inside of minutes, and traders like me playing the next 10-30 minutes, and sometimes longer. Horses for courses, but it all involves prediction of some degree. I would argue that deciding that price is random AND attempting to trade profitably is somewhat of a contradiction, and hope that my posts have showed some alternative possibilities. There are reasons for the time I mentioned, and the 8 point rally. Thorough testing of these conditions and prior price movement may reveal the appropriate parameters. It would not be beyond an independent trader to discover similar theories and implementations which yield similar results. I'd suggest analysing durations and magnitutes of price movement, ratios, degrees of movement within prior ranges, frequency and timing of turning points, market microstructure around turning points (with high quality accurate time and sales data), etc. Plenty to be investigated and discovered. This talk of "higher highs" "lower highs" etc does not do justice to the full range of possibilities to be explored and is frankly a one dimensional dead end which will not lead to consistently accurate trading. Happy to discuss further if there is interest and some feedback / interesting questions. Of course cannot give too much away. Just providing some starting points, there are many ways to trade, what I propose is just one.
Here's the nature of ET and other forums. * If you're going to make accurate analysis only without being specific with trade signal call of entry/exit price...most at this forum are not interested unless you've been doing such for several months/years here at ET or at another forum that's well documented. * If you're going to make accurate signal calls with entry/exit price without showing proof that you're trading your own signal calls...most at this forum are not interested unless you've been doing such for several months/years here at ET or at another forum that's well documented. * If you're posting "before the fact" or "real-time" trades with entry/exit price...most at this forum are interested even if you've been doing such for a few days, weeks or months. They're still interested even you don't share any information about your trade method. * Most traders are not interested in price action trading (no indicators) although its a growing area of interest. Those that are interested, they seem to jumping from one method to the next method without making any real commitment to learn one...a commitment that requires a few years at the minimum. Simply, if they don't see any immediate results (as in within a few days) via consistent profits or that "wow...I'm starting to see this stuff happen in real-time without any hindsight analysis"...they'll move on to another price action method. Therefore, to answer your question... Does this not suggest there are many market analysis possibilities outside of textbook "price action"? The answer is a big YES (as you already know) and some folks are posting real-time trades with broker statements as verification. Some of these traders are profitable, some traders are breakeven and some traders are losing. Last of all, when you say you cannot give too much away...you've already lost the interest of most folks here at ET especially if you don't have a long establish track record of sharing accurate analysis, accurate signal calls or trades here at ET. Thus, you've lost their interest because most do want to learn but not via "incomplete" information. P.S. ET's soft porn threads down in the Chit Chat section gets more interest than these price action trading threads. P.S.S. There's an overall decline in the number of retail traders hanging out at trading forums and most forums have become saturated with noise, arguments and personal attacks.
Shame, that hasn't been my experience. 8 points off the low in the last half hour yesterday, called to the tick, set it up for them 20 mins in advance, said where to close shorts, a few dozen views of the image and 1 comment saying that perhaps market profile explained the move. 1 question about what we can learn from it. Gold 1450 to 1475 in a day the other week, some "good call" comments, no interest in the reasoning I gave or whether we can predict moves like that consistently without using trendlines, TA, whatever. Right, they expect someone to come along and publish their entire trading method for free. I've already given out enough for several meals. The ironic thing is someone could publish their method in full and the majority would still fail to reconise the value let alone be successful with it. So people here aren't interested in interacting unless they are spoon fed everything? And even then it wouldn't do them good. Helping them ask the right questions and learn to think for themselves...now why should they be interested? I suppose I should perform on demand, raise my profile, create a long track record of profitable calls, maybe post some broker statements, get my net worth audited...all so I can prove I'm worth listening to to people who otherwise could not tell? Those who don't have the sense to distinguish value from bullshit need more work on their critical thinking before they could achieve any level of success in this business. Gratification there is available to any hormonally normal male. Gratification in trading is available only to those who possess the minimum level of intelligence required combined with savvy, persistence, and good character. So it is not a surprise that the porn gets more interest. I'd say there is an overall decline in the number of successful professional traders hanging out at trading forums as most forums have become saturated with ignorance and bad behavior. So thank you for helping me to understand why my contributions are not valued here. It shouldn't be much of a surprise really. Back to trading.
So are you saying that price action alone is not sufficient for consistency and profitability, or that a simplistic version of price action analysis isn't sufficient?
Basically true. Basically yes but I wouldn't recommend doing such here at Elitetrader.com Instead, do such in your own backyard where you're more in control (e.g. blog, website, facebook, twitter or some other type of social network that allows you to manage whom and when they see such). I'm sure there's traders here at ET that value your contribution. Just not by as many as you want. Why bother when you can contribute the same information elsewhere in a place that you can control. You can always do what a few do here...use ET to post links here to the info (assuming it doesn't require registration or fee to access) or general summaries here about specific details that have been posted elsewhere outside of Elitetrader.com such as a blog, website, facebook, twitter or other social network. Thus, you get both worlds. You control your specific content elsewhere and you can still share summaries, analysis, calls, trades or whatever here at ET.
Being given only part of the big picture (hints, fortune cookie wisdom, etc) is indistinguishable from how a "guru" "teaches." I'm sure you are a profitable trader making 5 figures per day, but with just hints, I cannot learn from you. This is not me "not being committed and not wanting to do the work myself." That is a "guru" excuse. This thread shows I'm willing to do the work, and my 3+ years of journal threads with live calls show I am committed. So please find another excuse to justify your vagueness. Perhaps try "I can't tell you how I do it because I don't want anyone to steal my edge." That one is always a hit at parties. You will probably get some interest and some people following along who are trying to decipher the clues, which is exactly what happens when "gurus" post their "methods," too, the only difference is that "gurus" know they are bullshitting everyone and are just doing it for entertainment. But the end result is the same. You obviously cannot learn from a "guru" because they are vague and nonspecific and never give you enough information to quite figure anything out (which prevents them from being exposed as having a fraudulent method that doesn't work, anyway). And you obviously cannot learn from a profitable trader who is also only giving vague hints and clues because, well, they're just vague hints and clues. This thread even says in the title it is no BS and obfuscation-free. If you don't want to give specifics, please refrain from posting. And the whole argument of "even if people were given a profitable system they wouldn't make money because blah blah blah" is nonsense. I've never seen anyone who even has a profitable system in the first place, so I don't know how that conclusion was reached. Usually the only people I hear say that are "gurus" who are using it as an excuse to justify their vagueness. "Well, I could just give you the complete system, but you wouldn't appreciate it then. You're not worthy. Pearls before swine. You have to work for it, grasshopper. I can tell you are serious, though, so I will give you a discount and allow you to buy my complete method for just $1,999!" If that were true then it would invalidate the "I don't want to give up my edge" argument from before. Cuz you know, no one would even be trading profitably with it, anyway, so your edge would remain intact. I am trying to learn price action to supplement my trading. I am interested in specifics. I am not interested in what an awesome trader someone might be and seeing their calls and wow you make so much money. Go start a journal thread for that. The second paragraph in the first post says:
Advice: start your own journal and post all your calls there. Be accountable for the bum calls as well as the good ones. If your results are good, people will start to pay attention.